Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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commodity Labour Market

2 Aug 2021 Underlying Chinese Inflation is More Progressed than in DMs

China's PPI inflation is at or near its peak, and CPI inflation remains relatively tame...

... But underlying inflationary pressure is more ad- vanced in China, thanks to the early recovery.

More limited slack means services inflation is on a sustained uptrend.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

29 July 2021 The PMIs Should Offer Some Signs of Stabilisation this Month

Q2 CPI inflation exceeded the MPC's one-quarter ahead forecast by the most for 13 years...

...But only two members have implied they will vote to end QE; pushback from the doves has been strong.

Inflation expectations have remained well-anchored; Team Transitory probably is right.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 July 2021 Local Government Expenditure will Soon Pick up, but Soon Enough?

China's on-balance sheet government deficit has recovered fast since the initial Covid hit early last year, reaching a seasonally adjusted 3.9% of GDP in Q1, on our calculations, up from the trough of 8.2% in Q1 last year, leaving it easily above the 5.3% average through 2019.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

5 July 2021 We Still Aren't too Worried About China's Credit/Money Slowdown

China analysts have a not-so-secret weapon; credit and money trends are very good leading indicators
of GDP growth. At the moment, the signal from
those indicators is worrying.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

1 July 2021 Manufacturing PMI Points to Q2 GDP Growth Slowdown

The official manufacturing PMI indicates that bottlenecks remain a problem.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 June 2021 The BoJ has Ended QE Already, the Loan Programme will be Extended

The BoJ meeting this week could be live, with an extension of the Special Funds Supplying operation, likely to March next year, from September currently.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

8 June 2021 China is Exposed to a Double Whammy Against Exports

It's now widely appreciated that Chinese exports are exposed, as the global economy switches lanes to services, from manufacturing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

4 June 2021 Did the U.S. Stimulus Give the Trade Cycle a Final Boost in May

Chinese exports have recovered much more quickly than elsewhere, thanks in large part to the still strong command element of the economy. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

28 May 2021 Manufacturing PMIs Could Edge Higher this Month

Overall, data available so far for May point to a modest improvement in Chinese manufacturing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

17 May 2021 What will Happen When Services Really get Going?

Last week, we explained how deteriorating monetary trends led us to revise down our GDP growth forecast for next year.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

7 May 2021 CPI Inflation will Soon Point to Higher Yields, But not Yet

April CPI inflation—to be released next Tuesday— likely picked up to around 0.6%, from 0.4% in March.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

4 May 2021 Only Small Firms Noticed the U.S. Stimulus, so far

We continue to look for signs on whether the manufacturing cycle will be given a further lease of life by the U.S. stimulus.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

28 Apr 2021 Inflation is Beside the Point for the BoJ, Global Yields will Dictate Policy

The BoJ press conference focused on inflation, which is a red herring, in terms of the drivers of policy changes over the next couple of years.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

8 Apr 2021 When will China's Services Inflation Begin to Gain Traction

The big question facing Chinese CPI inflation is when services inflation will finally begin to pick up.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 Apr 2021 China's Fiscal Deficit is Close to Pre-crisis Levels, but...

The January/February fiscal figures show that China's deficit diminished further, to RMB 434B, on our adjustment, from RMB 560B in December.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

15 Mar 2021 Equities, Sovereign Debt, PBoC Normalisation, and Battles with Ant

China's sovereign debt and equity markets have stood out globally in the last few weeks, for very different reasons.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

2 Mar 2021 China's February PMIs are Better than Billed, but are Softening

The February PMIs deteriorated across the board, with the official gauge falling to 50.6, from 51.3, and the Caixin version falling to 50.9 from 51.5.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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