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China's PPI inflation is at or near its peak, and CPI inflation remains relatively tame...
... But underlying inflationary pressure is more ad- vanced in China, thanks to the early recovery.
More limited slack means services inflation is on a sustained uptrend.
Q2 CPI inflation exceeded the MPC's one-quarter ahead forecast by the most for 13 years...
...But only two members have implied they will vote to end QE; pushback from the doves has been strong.
Inflation expectations have remained well-anchored; Team Transitory probably is right.
China's on-balance sheet government deficit has recovered fast since the initial Covid hit early last year, reaching a seasonally adjusted 3.9% of GDP in Q1, on our calculations, up from the trough of 8.2% in Q1 last year, leaving it easily above the 5.3% average through 2019.
China analysts have a not-so-secret weapon; credit and money trends are very good leading indicators
of GDP growth. At the moment, the signal from
those indicators is worrying.
The official manufacturing PMI indicates that bottlenecks remain a problem.
The BoJ meeting this week could be live, with an extension of the Special Funds Supplying operation, likely to March next year, from September currently.
It's now widely appreciated that Chinese exports are exposed, as the global economy switches lanes to services, from manufacturing.
Chinese exports have recovered much more quickly than elsewhere, thanks in large part to the still strong command element of the economy.
Overall, data available so far for May point to a modest improvement in Chinese manufacturing.
Last week, we explained how deteriorating monetary trends led us to revise down our GDP growth forecast for next year.
April CPI inflation—to be released next Tuesday— likely picked up to around 0.6%, from 0.4% in March.
We continue to look for signs on whether the manufacturing cycle will be given a further lease of life by the U.S. stimulus.
The BoJ press conference focused on inflation, which is a red herring, in terms of the drivers of policy changes over the next couple of years.
The big question facing Chinese CPI inflation is when services inflation will finally begin to pick up.
The January/February fiscal figures show that China's deficit diminished further, to RMB 434B, on our adjustment, from RMB 560B in December.
China's sovereign debt and equity markets have stood out globally in the last few weeks, for very different reasons.
The February PMIs deteriorated across the board, with the official gauge falling to 50.6, from 51.3, and the Caixin version falling to 50.9 from 51.5.
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