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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

commodity prices

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 NOVEMBER 2022: China's Home Price Decline Steepens

China's Home Price Decline Steepens in October, as Developers Come Under Pressure

Duncan WrigleyChina+

10 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Consumer Price Inflation Rolls Over in October

  • China’s CPI inflation rolled over in October, owing to weak domestic demand and labour market slack.
  • Overall food price rises decelerated, despite pork price rises speeding up.
  • Producer prices began to fall, year-over-year, on slowing energy prices and weak demand.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24 OCTOBER 2022: Official GDP beats expectations on infrastructure support, despite property drag

China's GDP rebound stronger than expected
Industrial output boosted by unblocking of supply chains
Consumption continues to struggle under zero-Covid policy
Property drags down fixed asset investment
Home prices fall more quickly in existing home market
China trade balance remains large despite slowing export growth
Japan flash manufacturing PMI points to a gloomy outlook

Craig BothamChina+

24 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Headline Inflation Set to Rise as Food Prices Heat up

  • Japan’s headline CPI is expected to resume rising in October, thanks to food price increases...
  • ...But the BOJ will stick to easy monetary policy, given the lacklustre core inflation and wage outlook.
  • Korean 20-day exports for October indicated still-worsening global demand. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

17 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Chinese Core Inflation Fades Further, Signalling Weak Demand

  • Weak demand is still weighing on inflation in China, with only food prices pushing CPI higher.
  • Consumer inflation likely has now peaked, and PPI is headed to deflation over the next six months.
  • Chinese policy will have the—likely unintended— effect of exporting disinflation globally.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Industrial Profits are Only Headed One Way in China

  • After a bumper pandemic, Chinese industrial profits are set for a prolonged decline.
  • The manufacturing sector, particularly the privately owned part, faces rising costs and weaker demand.
  • Weaker profits growth means weaker revenue growth for local governments, adding to their woes.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 SEPTEMBER 2022: Stimulus and base effects boosted China's economy in August

Demand for energy during a heatwave props up industrial output

Strong, but fragile, consumption

Government spending finally lifts FAI

Still no bottom for property

Craig BothamChina+

12 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor A Miss for Chinese Inflation, as a Lukewarm Economy Cools Further

  • Inflation is falling faster than expected in China, a sign that demand is flatlining.
  • Food is the only source of inflationary pressure remaining, and faces government intervention.
  • Talk of monetary policy space, however, sadly is meaningless in a liquidity trap.

Craig BothamChina+

30 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Inflation Climbed Again in August, but the BoJ Likely Will Double-Down

  • Tokyo CPI inflation rose more than expected in August, thanks to food, energy, and base effects.
  • The BoJ will likely feel more, not less, dovish, as higher food and energy prices weigh on demand.
  • Japan remains unique; policymakers will welcome rising household inflation expectations.

Craig BothamChina+

18 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Japan Faces a Growing Trade Deficit, Despite the Weaker Yen

Japan’s trade deficit widened again in July, thanks to a surging import bill.

Energy costs are a big part of the problem, but recent yen weakness is more curse than blessing.

Exports are yet to benefit from the currency’s fall, and key imports are insensitive to price changes.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 AUGUST 2022: A sharper loss of momentum than expected for China

Manufacturing struggles despite subsidies 

An even bigger miss for retail sales 

Real estate still a killer for FAI 

Monetary easing won’t do anything 

A modest rebound for Japan in Q2 

Craig BothamChina+

11 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Food Alone Pushes Inflation Higher, and Disinflation Awaits for China

Chinese CPI inflation has reached a two-year high, but is still below target, and set to cool.

PPI inflation continues to fall on base effects and lower energy and industrial commodity prices.

China will be a source of disinflation, and even deflation, over the next twelve months.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Reality Reasserts Itself in China, as the Reopening Rebound Fades

China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.

Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...

...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 JULY 2022: Official GDP - somewhat surprisingly - confirms a terrible Q2 for China

More of a slowdown for GDP than expected

A strong month for manufacturing, but momentum is fading

Subsidies pulled forward retail sales growth

Property continues to weigh on fixed asset investment

The reopening bounce for real estate proved underwhelming

Craig BothamChina+

7 July 2022 Chinese Inflation will Climb, but the PBoC Won't React

Chinese CPI inflation is set to rise until Q4, but it’s still a very different story to the West.

Inflation is unlikely to spend any time above target, and will retreat in 2023, with PPI entering deflation.

The PBoC will not need to tighten policy, but other constraints prevent aggressive easing.

Craig BothamChina+

27 June 2022 Yen Weakness will Keep Inflation Above Target; the BoJ Won't Care

Japanese CPI inflation was unchanged in May, andremains above the 2% target.

We think inflation will remain above target for the rest of the year, thanks to recent yen weakness.

But the BoJ will still see no reason to hike, with cost-push inflation viewed as “unsustainable”.

Craig BothamChina+

20 June 2022 No Change from the BoJ, Defying Market Speculation on YCC

The BoJ stood pat on Friday, leaving policy settings unchanged, despite pressure on the yen and JGBs. 

Governor Kuroda was at pains to assert the primacy of growth and inflation as drivers of monetary policy. 

Currency volatility, rather than weakness, bothers the BoJ, warranting only limited intervention. 

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 JUNE 2022: China's reopening helps global trade, but not its property market

Japan benefits from China's reopening

China's property market is still dropping

Craig BothamChina+

1 June 2022 A Dead Cat Bounce for Chinese Activity, but Reanimation is Nigh

Chinese PMIs rose in May, but are still sub-50, signalling month-on-month declines.

We expect a return to growth in June, as zero-Covid restrictions ease further, but it will be gradual.

The latest stimulus announcements provide a touch of new money, but still look lacklustre.

Craig BothamChina+

25 May 2022 Japanese Manufacturing Falters in May, as External Demand Softens

Japanese flash PMIs for May show a domestic recovery facing headwinds from external factors.

The most obvious culprit is China’s zero-Covid policy, with restrictions loosening only slowly.

New stimulus from China is underwhelming, but, importantly, contains new money this time.

Craig BothamChina+

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