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China's Home Price Decline Steepens in October, as Developers Come Under Pressure
China's GDP rebound stronger than expected
Industrial output boosted by unblocking of supply chains
Consumption continues to struggle under zero-Covid policy
Property drags down fixed asset investment
Home prices fall more quickly in existing home market
China trade balance remains large despite slowing export growth
Japan flash manufacturing PMI points to a gloomy outlook
Demand for energy during a heatwave props up industrial output
Strong, but fragile, consumption
Government spending finally lifts FAI
Still no bottom for property
Japan’s trade deficit widened again in July, thanks to a surging import bill.
Energy costs are a big part of the problem, but recent yen weakness is more curse than blessing.
Exports are yet to benefit from the currency’s fall, and key imports are insensitive to price changes.
Manufacturing struggles despite subsidies
An even bigger miss for retail sales
Real estate still a killer for FAI
Monetary easing won’t do anything
A modest rebound for Japan in Q2
Chinese CPI inflation has reached a two-year high, but is still below target, and set to cool.
PPI inflation continues to fall on base effects and lower energy and industrial commodity prices.
China will be a source of disinflation, and even deflation, over the next twelve months.
China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.
Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...
...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.
More of a slowdown for GDP than expected
A strong month for manufacturing, but momentum is fading
Subsidies pulled forward retail sales growth
Property continues to weigh on fixed asset investment
The reopening bounce for real estate proved underwhelming
Chinese CPI inflation is set to rise until Q4, but it’s still a very different story to the West.
Inflation is unlikely to spend any time above target, and will retreat in 2023, with PPI entering deflation.
The PBoC will not need to tighten policy, but other constraints prevent aggressive easing.
Japanese CPI inflation was unchanged in May, andremains above the 2% target.
We think inflation will remain above target for the rest of the year, thanks to recent yen weakness.
But the BoJ will still see no reason to hike, with cost-push inflation viewed as “unsustainable”.
The BoJ stood pat on Friday, leaving policy settings unchanged, despite pressure on the yen and JGBs.
Governor Kuroda was at pains to assert the primacy of growth and inflation as drivers of monetary policy.
Currency volatility, rather than weakness, bothers the BoJ, warranting only limited intervention.
Japan benefits from China's reopening
China's property market is still dropping
Chinese PMIs rose in May, but are still sub-50, signalling month-on-month declines.
We expect a return to growth in June, as zero-Covid restrictions ease further, but it will be gradual.
The latest stimulus announcements provide a touch of new money, but still look lacklustre.
Japanese flash PMIs for May show a domestic recovery facing headwinds from external factors.
The most obvious culprit is China’s zero-Covid policy, with restrictions loosening only slowly.
New stimulus from China is underwhelming, but, importantly, contains new money this time.
China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence