Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Manufacturing struggles despite subsidies
An even bigger miss for retail sales
Real estate still a killer for FAI
Monetary easing won’t do anything
A modest rebound for Japan in Q2
Chinese activity has slowed sooner than expected; the reopening rebound has failed to gain traction.
Supply-side stimulus measures are the wrong prescription for an economy lacking demand.
The PBoC delivered surprise easing yesterday, but it looks half-hearted, and will achieve little.
Consumer price inflation climbs on food pressures alone
Commodity price falls speed up PPI disinflation
Chinese trade continues to surprise to the upside
China's FX reserves recover slightly, but have further to fall
China’s current account balance fell in Q2, despite strong trade balance figures.
The hit from the income account is unlikely to be repeated, but tailwinds are fading.
Export growth must slow, and compression of demand can’t go much further.
In one line: External headwinds are building for China
Supply chains are recovering, with delivery times and shipping costs improving in East Asia.
Lower raw material costs are reducing cost-push inflation, and should feed through to output prices.
The main supply-side risks now are political, as China retaliates for Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwanese trip.
A surprise bounce for the Caixin Services PMI
The manufacturing boost from reopening is over
Services are flagging again as restrictions tighten
Korean manufacturing also points to a receding tide
Don't be deceived by Korea's export bounce
China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.
Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...
...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.
Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.
Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.
China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.
Chinese profits rise, but the private sector still struggles
No further credit easing in China
Little over a month after reopening, China’s economy is again threatened by rising Covid cases.
Restrictions are tightening in response to flare-ups across China, and are already hitting activity.
Slow progress with vaccinations means zero-Covid seems likely to persist into 2024.
Official data came closer to the truth than expected, showing a very weak Q2 for Chinese GDP.
June activity data showed a stronger bounce than anticipated, but this seems unsustainable.
Stimulus remains unequal to the task of reviving growth, and the target now looks doomed.
More of a slowdown for GDP than expected
A strong month for manufacturing, but momentum is fading
Subsidies pulled forward retail sales growth
Property continues to weigh on fixed asset investment
The reopening bounce for real estate proved underwhelming
In one line: Another record trade surplus as reopening remains a one-sided affair
We think China entered a balance sheet recession in Q2, and policy needs recalibrating to fix it.
The combination of the property downturn, tech crackdown, and zero-Covid, have hit asset values.
Balance sheet repair takes time, and breaks monetary transmission; fiscal support is needed.
Filter by Keyword
Filter by Publication Type
Filter by Author
Global Publications Only
Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)
Inflation Growth Labour Market Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Quantitive Easing Trade Investment Housing Inventories Banks Money Credit Inflation Expectations Asset Prices Industry Services Balance of Payments Saving Profits Companies Central Banks
China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence