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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

china new home sales

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 AUGUST 2022: A sharper loss of momentum than expected for China

Manufacturing struggles despite subsidies 

An even bigger miss for retail sales 

Real estate still a killer for FAI 

Monetary easing won’t do anything 

A modest rebound for Japan in Q2 

Craig BothamChina+

16 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor From Fireworks in June to a Damp Squib in July for Chinese Growth

Chinese activity has slowed sooner than expected; the reopening rebound has failed to gain traction.

Supply-side stimulus measures are the wrong prescription for an economy lacking demand.

The PBoC delivered surprise easing yesterday, but it looks half-hearted, and will achieve little.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 10 AUGUST 2022: Disinflation lies ahead for China

Consumer price inflation climbs on food pressures alone

Commodity price falls speed up PPI disinflation

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 08 AUGUST 2022: An upside surprise, but Chinese exports are losing momentum at last

Chinese trade continues to surprise to the upside

China's FX reserves recover slightly, but have further to fall

Craig BothamChina+

8 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor External Headwinds Build for China, and the Renminbi will Suffer

China’s current account balance fell in Q2, despite strong trade balance figures.

The hit from the income account is unlikely to be repeated, but tailwinds are fading.

Export growth must slow, and compression of demand can’t go much further.

Craig BothamChina+

PM Data Note: Current Account, China, Q2

In one line: External headwinds are building for China

Craig BothamChina+

4 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Supply-Side Stresses are Fading, Bringing Hope of Disinflation

Supply chains are recovering, with delivery times and shipping costs improving in East Asia.

Lower raw material costs are reducing cost-push  inflation, and should feed through to output prices.

The main supply-side risks now are political, as China retaliates for Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwanese trip.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 01 AUGUST 2022: The boost from China's reopening is over

The manufacturing boost from reopening is over

Services are flagging again as restrictions tighten

Korean manufacturing also points to a receding tide

Don't be deceived by Korea's export bounce

Craig BothamChina+

2 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Reality Reasserts Itself in China, as the Reopening Rebound Fades

China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.

Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...

...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Change from Policymakers in Japan or China on the Horizon

Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.

Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.

China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.

Craig BothamChina+

July 2022 - China+ Chartbook

  • China Skirts Recession In Q2, And Stimulus Is Still Low
  • Covid Threatens Japanese Growth Once Again
  • The BoK Goes For A Bumper Hike, But Sounds Dovish

Craig BothamChina+

20 July 2022 China Covid Cases Climb, Putting the Economic Recovery at Risk

Little over a month after reopening, China’s economy is again threatened by rising Covid cases.

Restrictions are tightening in response to flare-ups across China, and are already hitting activity.

Slow progress with vaccinations means zero-Covid seems likely to persist into 2024.

Craig BothamChina+

18 July 2022 A False Dawn in June Data, as China's Economy Shrinks in Q2

Official data came closer to the truth than expected, showing a very weak Q2 for Chinese GDP.

June activity data showed a stronger bounce than anticipated, but this seems unsustainable.

Stimulus remains unequal to the task of reviving growth, and the target now looks doomed.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 JULY 2022: Official GDP - somewhat surprisingly - confirms a terrible Q2 for China

More of a slowdown for GDP than expected

A strong month for manufacturing, but momentum is fading

Subsidies pulled forward retail sales growth

Property continues to weigh on fixed asset investment

The reopening bounce for real estate proved underwhelming

Craig BothamChina+

PM Datanote: Trade, China, June

In one line: Another record trade surplus as reopening remains a one-sided affair

Craig BothamChina+

11 July 2022 China is Headed for a Balance Sheet Recession in Q2

We think China entered a balance sheet recession in Q2, and policy needs recalibrating to fix it.

The combination of the property downturn, tech crackdown, and zero-Covid, have hit asset values.

Balance sheet repair takes time, and breaks monetary transmission; fiscal support is needed.

Craig BothamChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence