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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

china new home sales

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20.01.22 - Japanese exports slow and Chinese rates fall

External demand began to perk up in late Q4, if you look through the base effects

Bank lending rates follow the MLF down

Craig BothamChina+

18 Jan 2022 A Better Year for Consumption, but Now Normal Service Resumes

  • Growth was stronger than expected at the end of 2021, but still slowed...
  • The outsized contribution from both consumption and exports will now fade...
  • ...as the central government takes centre stage, supported from the wings by the PBoC.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 17.01.22 - A mostly stronger than expected end to 2021 in China

Manufacturing props up Q4 growth as quarterly momentum improves

Industrial production sprints into the finish

Property was still a hefty headwind in December

A terrible month for the consumer

A modest policy salve

Craig BothamChina+

17 Jan 2022 Weaker Imports Suggest a Weaker Domestic Economy in China

  • China posted a new record-high trade surplus in December, boosting the renminbi.
  • Behind the headline, however, lurks a troubling weakness of imports and domestic demand.
  • Korea's central bank hiked rates to 1.25%, and signalled more to come this year.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Jan 2022 Credit Growth is Grease to the Wheels, not Fuel for the Fire

  • China's money and credit growth improved in December, but this isn't a stimulus surge.
  • The authorities are laying down the groundwork to bail out swathes of the economy.
  • We expect the Q4 GDP reading to be the weakest since the start of the pandemic.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Jan 2022 Chinese Inflation is Past the Peak, and Set to Plunge

  • China's CPI inflation surge was short-lived, and is set to be followed by a sharp reversal, soon.
  • Producer prices are also rolling over rapidly, relieving inflation pressure at home and abroad.
  • Omicron is now spreading in China, which will hit activity and inflation, but disrupt supply chains.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: Money Supply, China, December

In one line: Stronger money growth chiefly driven by fiscal efforts, as banks pull back

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 12.01.22 - Moving past China's inflation peak

Food price growth turns negative once more

Industrial goods inflation wanes further

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, December

In one line: Reserves are still growing as the PBoC leans against currency strength

Craig BothamChina+

7 Jan 2022 Service Growth is Overstated, but Inflation Really is Fading

  • China's service sector PMIs are surprisingly strong, given the Covid outbreaks in December.
  • We think financial activity is distorting the readings, which are unlikely to be followed by real growth.
  • Inflation pressures are receding, leaving policy free to focus on the growth challenge this year.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 06.01.22 - A surprise bounce in China's services PMI

Covid proves less damaging than expected to service sector activity

Craig BothamChina+

5 Jan 2022 Regional PMIs Show Fading Inflation Despite Bottlenecks

  • Manufacturing PMIs point to an inflection in inflation pressure, despite stretched supply chains.
  • External demand has weakened, but we think it will prove to be short lived.
  • Recent Covid outbreaks in China threaten renewed tightening of global bottlenecks.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Jan 2022 Bright in Patches, but a Largely Dismal End to China's 2021

  • Despite some apparent good news, early data point to marginal weakening in growth in December.
  • Policymakers are delivering more initiatives, but they will only cushion the fall.
  • Bad news on Sinovac efficacy versus Omicron means reopening is pushed back a year, at least.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 04.01.22 - Caixin PMI rebounds

Domestic demand underpins a consensus-beating reading for Chinese manufacturing

Craig BothamChina+

22 Dec 2021 Korean Export Data Signal a Soft End to the Year

  • Slower Korean export growth in December rounds off a quarter of deceleration.
  • Supply constraints remain an issue, but demand is also fading from the post-lockdown boom.
  • Rising Covid cases globally have added to head- winds, and risk a bleak midwinter.

Craig BothamChina+

December 2021 - China+ Chartbook

  • China Begins To Stabilise, At A Low Level...The BOJ Tapers, But Don't Call It Hawkish...Regional Trade Data Point To Easing Constraints

Craig BothamChina+

20 Dec 2021 The BoJ Takes Another Step Back, but Don't Call it Hawkish

  • The BoJ kept its main policy tools unchanged in December, but tinkered around the edges.
  • An announced reduction in corporate debt purchases had already begun in practice.
  • The taper is offset by an extension of SME lending, which has been a bigger balance sheet driver.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Dec 2021 Further Tentative Signs of Easing Bottlenecks in Japanese Exports

Japanese exports jumped in November, amidst signs of reduced supply chain pressures.

Unfortunately, the outlook for December is dimming, thanks in part to Chinese Covid policy.

Omicron is set to renew supply disruptions, just as they were easing, but it will also weaken demand.

Craig BothamChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence