China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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china chartbook
In one line: Hi-tech and energy-related upstream sectors drive Chinese industrial profit growth higher in Q1
In one line: China’s LPR steady in April amid NIM pressure
- The BoJ held the policy rate steady at 0.75% yesterday, amid uncertainty in the Middle East.
- Governor Ueda’s mixed message on policy direction could invite speculation on USDJPY.
- We think a June rate hike is still on the table, as long as prospects for a lasting ceasefire have improved by then.
- China’s industrial profits rose in Q1 on lower costs and higher revenues from precautionary front-loading.
- Producer reflation supported the rise, but was more evident in metals and upstream energy sectors.
- Profit growth will face pressure from war-related costs, fading front-loading and weak domestic demand.
- - CHINA'S Q1 GROWTH SPURT COULD BE HIGH-WATER MARK
- - BOJ WILL LIKELY HOLD POLICY RATE AT APRIL'S MEETING
- - KOREA'S CHIP EXPORT RISE OFFSETS OIL IMPORT BILL
- China’s LPRs and de-facto policy rate were unchanged in April, amid pressure on banks’ margins.
- Banks started a new round of deposit-rate cuts, given the liquidity glut in the system from weak loan demand.
- The MoF is offering ultra-long special bonds at record levels, taking advantage of the risk-averse mood.
In one line: China's lopsided Q1 GDP growth bump likely the year's high-water mark
- China’s GDP growth rose to 5.0% in Q1, but it was highly dependent on robust exports...
- ...Which are likely to slow as the oil price shock hits global growth.
- Real household spending slowed and underlying consumption activity remains sluggish.
- China’s trade surplus narrowed sharply in March, as import strength outpaced exports, hit by payback.
- The import surge was led by high-tech items, with price effects outweighing geopolitical energy dynamics.
- Exports were distorted by LNY effects, but underlying momentum was notably weaker for the Global South.
In one line: Private sector credit showing early but uneven improvement
- China’s March credit data, albeit soft overall, points to a tentative private credit revival in select areas.
- Rising pre-existing home sales likely drove mortgage demand; bottoming out is happening albeit slowly.
- Policy-driven infrastructure investment probably supported improving underlying corporate credit.
- China has ramped up energy production from alternative sources in the wake of the Iran war.
- China has seen limited trade spillover; East Asian PMIs show a common theme of higher oil-driven input costs.
- Hong Kong’s PMI plunged on war uncertainty, with price pressures yet to feed through.
In one line: China’s big drop mainly due to global market volatility, rather than domestic economy
In one line: China’s manufacturing PMI buoyed by post-holiday seasonality; oil price shock hits input prices
In one line: China's manufacturing activity resilient, despite jump in energy-related costs
CHINA+ OUTLOOK
- CHINA RELATIVELY INSULATED FROM OIL-PRICE SPIKE
- BOJ WOULD HIKE EARLY IN A $150/BL OIL SCENARIO
- KOREA'S CHIP EXPORT RISE OFFSETS OIL IMPORT BILL
In one line: LPRs steady; PBoC aims for "price recovery"
China's consumer spending was boosted by longer holiday
infrastructure investment rebounds thanks to policy support
Industrial output lifted by export demand
In one line: China’s Q4 current account surplus surges on strong goods exports
China's PPI reflation remains patchy; CPI falls back on Lunar New Year timing
