China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, November

In one line: Implied outflows are growing as foreign investors pull back, despite an increase in headline reserves

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 07.12.21 - Chinese demand ramps up

The first decline in China’s trade balance in nine months

Exports suggest regional supply chain recovery

Chinese imports boosted by energy demand, but also tell a reassuring story about momentum - and infrastructure

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: RRR Cut, China, December

In one line: A RRR cut puts the lie to PBoC assurances that property financing would be unaffected by Evergrande’s implosion

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: Evergrande's reckoning

In one line: End of the line for Evergrande

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 03.12.21 - Covid is still a problem for China's services sector, even before Omicron

The property sector remains under pressure

Services activity remains hostage to the ravages of the virus

Craig BothamChina+

2 Dec 2021 Bottlenecks Continued to Ease on the Eve of Omicron

• Korean exports beat expectations in November, though we think the data overstate performance.
• Supply chains are still improving at the margins, even if U.S. ports remain congested.
• The Omicron variant is a risk to this recovery, but will not derail it entirely.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 01.12.21 - Stabilisation in China, and a boost to Korean exports

Disparity with Chinese official data driven by falling new orders and employment, and further supply delays

Japanese capex data hints at little revision to GDP

Resumption of Chinese demand lifts Korean trade, but it’s also flattered by lumpy ship exports

Craig BothamChina+

1 Dec 2021 Stability and the Easing of Stagflation Risk in China

• Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
• The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
• Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 30.11.21 - Surveys point to upside surprises for activity, with an infrastructure splurge ahead

The end of the energy crisis boosts manufacturing

Construction leads a rebound in non-manufacturing amidst infrastructure push

Craig BothamChina+

30 Nov 2021 Coal Boosts Profits as Omicron Lurks in the Wings

• October was another strong month for Chinese industrial profits, propelled by coal...
• ...But coal prices have been slashed, and energy rates hiked, so we expect deceleration from here.
• China is doubling down on zero-Covid in the face of Omicron, which will prove costly.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 29.11.21 Coal drives another strong month for profits

A final hurrah for coal before the price caps bite

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 26.11.21 An upside surprise for Tokyo CPI, a new Covid wave starts in China

Stronger inflation reflects global supply pressures rather than domestic demand

Zero Covid is struggling in the colder months, and will create a renewed service sector drag

Craig BothamChina+

November 2021 - China+ Chartbook

• China Survives The Worst Of Its Energy Shock...Japan's New PM Unveils A Big Stimulus Package...Korean Trade Data Point To Easing Constraints

Craig BothamChina+

23 Nov 2021 Bottlenecks and Chinese Policy to Ease, but Keep Calm

• Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains.
• Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector.
• Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Nov 2021 Regional Trade Data Highlight Persistence of Supply Pressures

• Japan's October exports repeated the message of other regional trade data...
• ...Supply chains remain snarled, and bottlenecks are still narrow, and tight.
• We think November will prove to be a high-water mark, but tankers have a big turning circle.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Nov 2021 Chinese Industry Avoids Calamity, but Q4 Looks Set for Weakness

• China's October activity data were better than ex- pected, but chiefly reflecting a low bar.
• Industrial production growth staved off collapse, but is still near multi-decade lows.
• The property sector is a chronic, and building, headwind for the economy.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15.11.21

Fixed asset investment pulled down by property

Industry’s turnaround is built on a narrow base, but it should broaden

Retail sales are likely enjoying a false dawn

Craig BothamChina+

15 Nov 2021 Logistical Pressures Build as Covid Reaches Another Port City

• China's latest Covid outbreak now risks locking down another port...
• ...and logistics networks are already strained, thanks to assorted energy shortages.
• The Sixth Plenum elevated Xi, but was light on policy announcements.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Nov 2021 Halloween is Over, but China will Provide a Late October Scare

• China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
• We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
• Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: Money Supply, China, October

In one line: Money and credit data point to signs of risk aversion throughout the economy

Craig BothamChina+