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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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11 Feb 2022 The State Sector Doubles Down as Risk Appetite Dwindles

  • Record weakness in Chinese M1 growth is only partly attributable to seasonal and base effects...
  • ...Weaker risk appetite, and softer economic activity, underlie the drop in liquid deposits.
  • Credit growth continued to become more heavily dominated by the state in January.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Jan 2022 Chinese Property Sector Update, Keep a Cool Head on Easing

  • China's property sector plummeted over the course of 2021, and nosedives are hard to escape.
  • Policy easing looks modest compared to previous cycles, in line with government messaging.
  • The impact of easing on growth will also be weaker than markets expect, based on past cycles.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Dec 2021 Slow and Steady in November as Policymakers Double Down

  • Early Chinese data point to a stabilisation—at low levels— of economic activity.
  • Infrastructure investment likely rose in November, partially offsetting the property slowdown.
  • Prepare for a harsher crackdown on the private sec- tor in 2022, and more infrastructure spending.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Nov 2021 Infrastructure Spending is Coming, but Less than you Hope

  • Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
  • Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
  • ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Nov 2021 An Attention-Grabbing Start to Kishida's New Term

  • Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
  • Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
  • The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Nov 2021 Japan's Recovery Can't Afford Policy Mistakes

  • Japanese growth fell sharply in Q3, as both consumption and capex declined.
  • A near-term rebound is on the cards, as temporary headwinds fade.
  • Beyond Q4, however, growth needs policy support merely to return to, let alone surpass, its trend.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Oct 2021 The BoJ Turns Bearish on Near- Term Risks

  • No change in policy settings from the BoJ, but a decided turn for the worse in the growth outlook.
  • The coronavirus, coupled with supply-side issues, is weighing on the short-term outlook.
  • Currency weakness is drawing greater attention, and we think the BoJ will need to act next year.

Craig BothamChina+

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China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence