Pantheon Macroeconomics
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Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Korean exports accelerated in May, but this is unlikely to herald a broader global revival.
The data also suggest a partial recovery in China, as restrictions ease, but energy prices are a key driver.
The renminbi has gained on dollar weakness, and hopes of tariff reductions, but it will weaken again.
Japanese GDP shrank in Q1, thanks to Covid at home, and abroad, but should recover in Q2.
Both consumption and investment have scope for significant catch-up, aided by fiscal stimulus.
Chinese house prices fell again in April, as attempts at shoring up the sector struggle to find purchase.
Zero-Covid caught up with Chinese exports in April, as inventories were exhausted...
...But demand played a role too, with higher energy prices dragging down trade with Japan and Europe.
The fundamental backdrop for the renminbi is deteriorating, highlighted by plunging FX reserves.
China's currency is finally succumbing to pressure from multiple fronts, and has further to fall.
The renminbi poses a key constraint to PBoC policy, which Beijing will ultimately override.
April export data from Korea show that China's bat- tle with Covid will weigh heavily on global trade.
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