24 May 2022 A Reprieve for Korean Exports, but Global Trade Probably won't Follow

Korean exports accelerated in May, but this is unlikely to herald a broader global revival.

The data also suggest a partial recovery in China, as restrictions ease, but energy prices are a key driver.

The renminbi has gained on dollar weakness, and hopes of tariff reductions, but it will weaken again.

Craig BothamChina+

19 May 2022 Japan's Economy Struggles with Covid and Rising Costs

Japanese GDP shrank in Q1, thanks to Covid at home, and abroad, but should recover in Q2.

Both consumption and investment have scope for significant catch-up, aided by fiscal stimulus.

Chinese house prices fell again in April, as attempts at shoring up the sector struggle to find purchase.

Craig BothamChina+

10 May Trade Disruption Builds for China, as Restrictions Tighten

Zero-Covid caught up with Chinese exports in April, as inventories were exhausted...

...But demand played a role too, with higher energy prices dragging down trade with Japan and Europe.

The fundamental backdrop for the renminbi is deteriorating, highlighted by plunging FX reserves.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Apr 2022 The PBoC Buckles Up for the Renminbi's Wild Ride

China's currency is finally succumbing to pressure from multiple fronts, and has further to fall.

The renminbi poses a key constraint to PBoC policy, which Beijing will ultimately override.

April export data from Korea show that China's bat- tle with Covid will weigh heavily on global trade.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Apr 2022 A Sharp Slowdown for China in March, but No New Stimulus, Yet

• China's economy is groaning under the strain of increasingly restrictive zero-Covid policies.
• Factory closures and lockdowns took a heavy toll on both manufacturing and services in March.
• Policymakers are relying on the existing toolkit, deployed more rapidly, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Mar 2022 The BoJ Splits from the Pack, as Energy Costs Climb

• Japan is not entirely immune to global inflation shocks; CPI is rising as energy costs surge.
• The BoJ, however, has the luxury of choosing the sort of inflation it wants, and will not be hiking.
• Don't get too excited by rumours of a turnaround in Chinese policy; nothing much has changed.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Feb 2022 Japan Returns to Growth, but the Bumpy Ride isn't Over

• Japanese GDP growth returned to positive territory in Q4, thanks to a rebound in consumption.
• Consumption will be under pressure in Q1, thanks to Omicron, but investment should recover.
• Chinese stimulus remains very modest, illustrated by a net withdrawal of liquidity this month.

Craig BothamChina+