Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

caixin index

16 July 2021 Data are Conflicting, but we Think China's Growth Slowed in Q2

Sometimes when you put together the Chinese data, it feels like you are drawing from multiple jigsaw puzzles, each with pieces missing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)16th Jul 2021 00:00China+

13 July 2021 GDP Growth Probably was at its Lowest Point this Year in Q2

We've expressed misgivings for some time about the sustainability of GDP quarterly growth into Q2.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)13th Jul 2021 00:10China+

12 July 2021 The RRR Cut was About Managing Interbank Liquidity

The PBoC followed through with a Reserve Requirement Ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points on Friday, hot on the heels of a strong hint to do so from the State Council meeting...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)12th Jul 2021 00:10China+

8 July 2021 CPI Inflation Could Still Edge Higher in June, Despite Mid-Year Weakness

Energy inflation is not straightforward to forecast in China, thanks to the lack of clarity over the CPI weights.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)8th Jul 2021 00:00China+

6 July 2021 Local Government Expenditure will Soon Pick up, but Soon Enough?

China's on-balance sheet government deficit has recovered fast since the initial Covid hit early last year, reaching a seasonally adjusted 3.9% of GDP in Q1, on our calculations,...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)6th Jul 2021 00:10China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5.7.21

Caixin PMI held back by Covid in the south of China. Tankan points to capex bright spot. Korean export trend slows. Korea's PMI signifies divergence with China.

Peter Bennett5th Jul 2021 11:05China+

2 July 2021 Chinese Manufacturing is Underperforming; Variants or Reversal

Data in the last few months have suggested that China's foreign trade and manufacturing sector is underperforming compared with Korea's. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)2nd Jul 2021 00:00China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1.7.21

Caixin PMI held back by Covid in the south of China. Tankan points to capex bright spot. Korean export trend slows. Korea's PMI signifies divergence with China.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)1st Jul 2021 16:00China+

1 July 2021 Manufacturing PMI Points to Q2 GDP Growth Slowdown

The official manufacturing PMI indicates that bottlenecks remain a problem.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)1st Jul 2021 00:00China+

28 June 2021 June PMIs will Provide Further Evidence of a Mid-Year Slowdown

China's official manufacturing PMI looks exposed in the context of the recent softening of regional trade flows. Korean 20-day export growth for June slowed to 29.4%...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)28th Jun 2021 00:10China+

22 June 2021 The PBoC will Continue with its Balancing Act, For Now

The PBoC continues to hold off on tightening, as it waits for something closer to herd immunity, and to see how the economy responds to "freedom".

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)22nd Jun 2021 00:10China+

7 June 2021 Having Your Cake and Eating it as the Household Savings Rate Falls

China is at a critical point in the recovery. The economy is switching lanes from the supply-led, export-supported manufacturing surge to consumer and services drivers.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)7th Jun 2021 00:10China+

4 June 2021 Did the U.S. Stimulus Give the Trade Cycle a Final Boost in May

Chinese exports have recovered much more quickly than elsewhere, thanks in large part to the still strong command element of the economy. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)4th Jun 2021 00:00China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3.6.21

A slight softening; price pressure building

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)3rd Jun 2021 16:02China+

2 June 2021 Bottlenecks are Biting in the North East Asian Supply Chain

China's PMIs strongly suggest that supply-side bottlenecks, if anything, are worsening.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)2nd Jun 2021 00:00China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1.6.21

Bottlenecks are restraining Chinese activity. Japan's Q4/Q1 GDP could be in for revisions. Korean exports show trade has slowed but not turned.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)1st Jun 2021 14:38China+

1 June 2021 The PMI Suggests PPI Inflation Likely Jumped Again in May

China's official manufacturing PMI was little changed at 51.0 in May, after April's 51.1, with the index remaining oblivious to U.S. stimulus efforts and in recent months.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)1st Jun 2021 00:10China+

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