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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

caixin

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 03.12.21 - Covid is still a problem for China's services sector, even before Omicron

The property sector remains under pressure

Services activity remains hostage to the ravages of the virus

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 01.12.21 - Stabilisation in China, and a boost to Korean exports

Disparity with Chinese official data driven by falling new orders and employment, and further supply delays

Japanese capex data hints at little revision to GDP

Resumption of Chinese demand lifts Korean trade, but it’s also flattered by lumpy ship exports

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 03.11.21

Disparity with official survey probably reflects geographic spread of latest Covid outbreaks

The PBoC lifts its foot from the brake ever so slightly

Craig BothamChina+

2 Nov 2021 China's Output Continues to Crater, Driven by the Energy Crunch

  • The worsening energy crunch weighed heavily on Chinese manufacturing in October.
  • Inflationary pressures are building, thanks to energy price liberalisation.
  • Shortages of natural gas and fuel remain a risk to production and supply chains.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 8.10.21

  • Optimism around Covid lifts the service sector

    Stress continues for the property sector

Craig BothamChina+

4 Oct 2021 I Don't Want that Much for Christmas (Luckily)

  • China's energy rationing is already hurting domes- tic economic activity...
  • ...But it may represent opportunities for exporters of energy intensive goods.
  • Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1.10.21

  • Manufacturing weakens as energy rationing bites

    Fading Delta wave boosts services, but Evergrande starts to weigh

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 30.9.21

  • Manufacturing weakens as energy rationing bites
  • Fading Delta wave boosts services, but Evergrande starts to weigh

Craig BothamChina+

6 Sept 2021 China's Equity Rebound will Lack Fundamental Drivers

  • Services PMIs should rebound this month but the trends are concerning...
  • ... Zero-Covid tolerance will keep drivers of above- trend private consumption growth on the sidelines...
  • ...Where they could whither away; a rebound from the regulatory shock looks unsupported.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3.9.21

  • Downside risks materialising
  • Hopes for a more stimulatory successor

Peter BennettChina+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, August, China; Markit Manufacturing PMI, August, Korea 2021

  • In one line: Export-sensitive Caixin PMI hit by Delta
  • In one line: Korea’s PMI will avoid the depths of the Caixin

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

1 Sept 2021 The Services Collapse in August Highlights the Cost of "Zero Covid"

  • The Delta wave was smaller than the last outbreak, yet it caused more damage to the services sector...
  • ...Underscoring China's reluctance to ditch its Zero Covid stance; construction was the only bright spot.
  • The manufacturing PMI slipped only modestly in August, but forward-looking indicators stayed grim.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9.8.21

A narrow increase in PPI inflation 

CPI inflation pressure continues to build

Prices taking a toll on commodities demand?

FX reserves boosted by valuation effects

sogorski hannahChina+

6 Aug 2021 The Trade Surplus is Likely to Remain Under Pressure

July exports likely weakened, while imports will be boosted by the tail end of commodities inflation.

PPI inflation may not yet have peaked; headline CPI inflation is just about food prices.

M1 growth should now be troughing, but an RRR cut is looking more likely nonetheless.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

3 Aug 2021 China's Manufacturing Underperformance Continues

China's weak July PMIs play into a wider story of underperformance in trade and manufacturing.

The official and Caixin reports are at odds on prices, but we reckon PPI inflation ticked higher in July.

The non-manufacturing gauge suggests that no fis- cal rescue has been forthcoming.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 2.8.21

Broad weakness for manufacturing; PPI inflation still hot

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Official and Caixin PMIs, July, China

In one line: Broad weakness for manufacturing; PPI inflation still hot

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

2 Aug 2021 Underlying Chinese Inflation is More Progressed than in DMs

China's PPI inflation is at or near its peak, and CPI inflation remains relatively tame...

... But underlying inflationary pressure is more ad- vanced in China, thanks to the early recovery.

More limited slack means services inflation is on a sustained uptrend.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

13 July 2021 GDP Growth Probably was at its Lowest Point this Year in Q2

We've expressed misgivings for some time about the sustainability of GDP quarterly growth into Q2.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence