Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

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16 Dec 2020 China's Q4 Recovery has Wavered Only Slightly, Thanks to Consumers

Industrial production growth in China has peaked, notwithstanding the likely spike in Q1, when the base effects kick in from the Covid- induced shutdowns earlier this year.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)15th Dec 2020 17:20China+

18 Nov 2020 Industrial Production Growth in China has Peaked

Industrial production growth in China surprised to the upside in October, remaining stable at September's nine-month high of 6.9% year-over-year.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)17th Nov 2020 19:10China+

20 Oct 2020 China will Lose More Steam in Q4, a Full-Year GDP Drop Remains Likely

China's economic recovery remained broadly on track in the third quarter, officially, at least. GDP growth accelerated to 4.9% year-over-year, from 3.2% in the second quarter.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)19th Oct 2020 20:10China+

16 July 2020 The BoJ's Q2 Outlook Tries to Walk a Tightrope as Activity Rebounds

July's BoJ meeting was a quiet one, with the Board keeping the -0.10% policy balance rate and the 10- year yield target of "around zero", as widely predicted.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)15th Jul 2020 20:10China+

1 July 2020 It's Official... Risks of Covid Clusters Don't Jeopardise China's Recovery

China's economy looks to have shrugged off the supposed "second wave" of Covid-19, sparked by a cluster in Beijing's largest wholesale market for fruit and veg,...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)30th Jun 2020 20:10China+

16 June 2020 China's Sturdy Q2 Rebound Spells GDP Upgrade, but at Q3's Expense

China's post-lockdown recovery broadly has surprised this quarter, particularly in the industrial sector.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)15th Jun 2020 20:10China+

20 May 2020 Two Session Signals will be Blurred, QE is Coming but to no Fanfare

The annual National People's Congress meeting of China's legislature will get underway at the end of this week, after delay due to the Covid outbreak.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)19th May 2020 20:10China+

12 May 2020 India's PMIs Show Lockdown Severity, but New Flexibility will Help

India's shocking PMIs for April leave little doubt that the second quarter will be bad enough to result in a full-year contraction in 2020 GDP, even if economic activity...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)11th May 2020 20:10China+

1 May 2020 China's Benign Manufacturing PMI Masks Worrying Underlying Trends

China's official manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.8 in April, from 52.0 in March. The output sub- index stayed relatively high, inching down only to 53.7 from 54.1, and...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)30th Apr 2020 20:10China+

15 Apr 2020 China's Import Outperformance Likely Reflects Early Q1 Strength

China's unadjusted March trade balance rebounded to a surplus of $20B, from a combined deficit of -$7B in the first two months of the year.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)14th Apr 2020 20:10China+

14 Apr 2020 Much Better Money Data from China... Better Late than Never

We're doing a wrap-up of the data that were released last week while we were away, and the Chinese numbers were both a hit and a miss.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)13th Apr 2020 20:10China+

1 Apr 2020 Hold Your Horses... A V-Shaped Recovery in China isn't Secured, Yet

China's official PMIs for March surprised well to the upside, cheering markets across Asia.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)31st Mar 2020 20:10China+

19 Mar 2020 Japan Whacked by Supply Shock, Now for the Demand Damage

Japan's February trade data were a shocker, but not for the reasons we expected, given the signal from the Chinese numbers.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)18th Mar 2020 20:10China+

13 Mar 2020 Lift from Anti-Covid Jobs in Korea won't Last, the BoK will Cut in April

The effects of Covid-19--both negative and positive--on Korea's labour market certainly were felt in February.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)12th Mar 2020 20:10China+

12 Mar 2020 China's Money and Credit Data Show No Room for Complacency

China's money and credit data for February were reassuring, at least when compared with the doomsday scenario painted, so far, by other key indicators for last month.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)11th Mar 2020 20:10China+

13 Feb 2020 Japan's M2 Still Points to a Growth Slowdown, Regardless of the Virus

Japan's money and credit data have shown signs of life in recent months, but that's all set to change quickly, due to the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)12th Feb 2020 19:10China+

4 Feb 2020 Early PBoC Rate Cut Confirms Official Worry Over Virus fallout

The PBoC yesterday cut its 7-day and 14-day reverse repo rate by 10bp, to 2.40% and 2.55% respectively, while injecting RMB 1.2T through open market operations.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)3rd Feb 2020 19:10China+

17 Jan 2020 Phase One Deal Puts a Grey Cloud Over End-2020, Silver Lining now

To avoid rocking the 2020 boat, the Phase One trade deal needed to be sufficiently vague, so that neither side, and particularly Mr. Trump, would have much cause to kick up a fuss...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)16th Jan 2020 19:10China+

16 Jan 2020 BoJ Likely to Stamp its Approval on the Budget with a GDP Upgrade

The BoJ is likely to be thankful next week for a relatively benign environment in which to conduct its monetary policy meeting.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)15th Jan 2020 19:10China+

15 Jan 2020 Chinese Trade Ends 2019 Strongly, but the Surplus Still is Narrowing

China's trade surplus jumped to a six-month high of $46.8B in December, from $37.6B in November, on the back of a strong increase in exports.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)14th Jan 2020 19:10China+

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