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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

bond issuance

5 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor China's Liquidity Trap is Creating All Sorts of Problems for the PBoC

  • The renminbi is weakening once again, in the face of dollar strength, but that’s not the full story.
  • The currency’s ability to defy gravity is fading, and this reflects the growing impotence of the PBoC.
  • The liquidity trap is closing tighter, creating an asymmetric profile of outcomes for monetary policy.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor China's Economy Probably Slowed Further in August, Say the PMIs

  • Official survey data point to falling output from China’s factories, and slower services activity.
  • Construction activity also apparently is faltering, suggesting infrastructure stimulus is waning.
  • The National Congress is coming in October; President Xi, and zero-Covid, are going nowhere.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Signs of a Revival for Chinese Real Estate

China’s property market is still in a tailspin, with no relief visible on the immediate horizon. 

The central government still refuses to get involved, and local government resources are inadequate. 

Japanese CPI inflation rose again in July, but the BoJ will remain on hold through 2023. 

Craig BothamChina+

21 July 2022 China+ Monitor Monetary Policy Can't Save China, as Borrowers Go on Strike

China’s loan prime rates were left unchanged on Wednesday, continuing the PBoC’s passive streak.

Monetary easing would have little effect at the moment, with loan demand falling.

Credit is increasingly being used to plug balance sheets, rather than support productive activity.

Craig BothamChina+

14 July 2022 The BoK Approaches the End of the Road with a Pre-emptive Hike

The BoK hiked by 50bp, but managed to sound dovish about the path ahead.

China’s trade balance hit a record surplus in June, driven by ongoing reopening dynamics.

Domestic demand is falling, with fiscal stimulus still too limited to provide a boost, rather than a floor.

Craig BothamChina+

27 June 2022 Yen Weakness will Keep Inflation Above Target; the BoJ Won't Care

Japanese CPI inflation was unchanged in May, andremains above the 2% target.

We think inflation will remain above target for the rest of the year, thanks to recent yen weakness.

But the BoJ will still see no reason to hike, with cost-push inflation viewed as “unsustainable”.

Craig BothamChina+

24 June 2022 Japan's Domestic Recovery Starts to Lose Momentum

Japanese manufacturing slowed further in June, likely reflecting weakening global demand.

The service sector extended its recovery from the Omicron-induced lows, but will peak soon.

Price pressures rose further, but the labour market still looks soft, so no change likely from the BoJ.

Craig BothamChina+

21 June 2022 Monetary Policy Remains On Hold in China, Despite the Slowdown

Policy rates remain on hold in China, alongside a broader pause in monetary easing.

More accommodative policy seems unlikely to drive growth, given lacklustre credit demand.

Monetary policy needs fiscal help, if it is to regain traction, and not add to financial risks.

Craig BothamChina+

17 June 2022 Keep an Eye on Chinese Property, Amidst the Focus on Zero-Covid

China’s property market took another tumble in May, despite policy efforts to steady the ship.

Buyers are unlikely to return while so many developers look fragile, and employment is under pressure.

Real estate will be a headwind to economic growth for the rest of the year, and likely beyond.

Craig BothamChina+

15 June 2022 Yen Intervention Looks More Likely, but Limited to Damage Control

Renewed yen weakness has drawn policymaker attention, with markets on alert for intervention.

Fighting currency weakness, however, is difficult, and Japan has few tools available.

Policymakers will likely be limited to fighting a rearguard action, reducing volatility on the way down.

Craig BothamChina+

8 June 2022 The PBoC Remains Cautious, Despite the Push for Growth

China’s FX reserves rose slightly in May, snapping a run of declines, despite currency weakness.

We think the recovery was driven chiefly by valuation effects, given reports of continued outflows.

The PBoC would feel more comfortable easing if China really were experiencing net inflows.

Craig BothamChina+

16 May 2022 A Change of Tune from the PBoC Amidst a Slump in Lending

The PBoC has adopted new language in the wake of a slowdown in bank lending...

...But we think this is unlikely to signal a sudden pivot in monetary policy, given other constraints.

The PBoC has no choice but to accept a higher debt ratio, unless it wants to deepen the recession.

Craig BothamChina+

10 May Trade Disruption Builds for China, as Restrictions Tighten

Zero-Covid caught up with Chinese exports in April, as inventories were exhausted...

...But demand played a role too, with higher energy prices dragging down trade with Japan and Europe.

The fundamental backdrop for the renminbi is deteriorating, highlighted by plunging FX reserves.

Craig BothamChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence