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China’s property market is still in a tailspin, with no relief visible on the immediate horizon.
The central government still refuses to get involved, and local government resources are inadequate.
Japanese CPI inflation rose again in July, but the BoJ will remain on hold through 2023.
China’s loan prime rates were left unchanged on Wednesday, continuing the PBoC’s passive streak.
Monetary easing would have little effect at the moment, with loan demand falling.
Credit is increasingly being used to plug balance sheets, rather than support productive activity.
The BoK hiked by 50bp, but managed to sound dovish about the path ahead.
China’s trade balance hit a record surplus in June, driven by ongoing reopening dynamics.
Domestic demand is falling, with fiscal stimulus still too limited to provide a boost, rather than a floor.
Japanese CPI inflation was unchanged in May, andremains above the 2% target.
We think inflation will remain above target for the rest of the year, thanks to recent yen weakness.
But the BoJ will still see no reason to hike, with cost-push inflation viewed as “unsustainable”.
Japanese manufacturing slowed further in June, likely reflecting weakening global demand.
The service sector extended its recovery from the Omicron-induced lows, but will peak soon.
Price pressures rose further, but the labour market still looks soft, so no change likely from the BoJ.
Policy rates remain on hold in China, alongside a broader pause in monetary easing.
More accommodative policy seems unlikely to drive growth, given lacklustre credit demand.
Monetary policy needs fiscal help, if it is to regain traction, and not add to financial risks.
China’s property market took another tumble in May, despite policy efforts to steady the ship.
Buyers are unlikely to return while so many developers look fragile, and employment is under pressure.
Real estate will be a headwind to economic growth for the rest of the year, and likely beyond.
Renewed yen weakness has drawn policymaker attention, with markets on alert for intervention.
Fighting currency weakness, however, is difficult, and Japan has few tools available.
Policymakers will likely be limited to fighting a rearguard action, reducing volatility on the way down.
China’s FX reserves rose slightly in May, snapping a run of declines, despite currency weakness.
We think the recovery was driven chiefly by valuation effects, given reports of continued outflows.
The PBoC would feel more comfortable easing if China really were experiencing net inflows.
The PBoC has adopted new language in the wake of a slowdown in bank lending...
...But we think this is unlikely to signal a sudden pivot in monetary policy, given other constraints.
The PBoC has no choice but to accept a higher debt ratio, unless it wants to deepen the recession.
Zero-Covid caught up with Chinese exports in April, as inventories were exhausted...
...But demand played a role too, with higher energy prices dragging down trade with Japan and Europe.
The fundamental backdrop for the renminbi is deteriorating, highlighted by plunging FX reserves.
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