28 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Tokyo Inflation Speeds up on Food Price Hikes

Tokyo headline CPI accelerated further in November, on the back of food price rises... 

...But the BoJ is likely to view domestic demand as still weak, and so leave monetary policy unchanged. 

China’s RRR cut is mainly about funding fiscal policy to cushion growth, as Covid cases surge again. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

21 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Inflation is Picking up on Higher Import Costs

• Japanese headline CPI rose sharply in October, on the back of food price hikes...
• ...But the BoJ is likely to keep monetary policy loose, expecting core inflation to wane in fiscal year 2023.
• The PBoC warned about future inflationary risk in China, as bond markets responded to policy shifts.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

31 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor The BoJ is not for Turning, Despite Rising Inflation

• The BoJ acknowledges higher CPI inflation for the
  rest of 2022...
• ...But continues to forecast a drop in the core rate to below the 2% target in late 2023.
• Nothing in the Tokyo CPI data will make the BoJ change its assessment.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

24 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Headline Inflation Set to Rise as Food Prices Heat up

• Japan’s headline CPI is expected to resume rising in October, thanks to food price increases...
• ...But the BOJ will stick to easy monetary policy, given the lacklustre core inflation and wage outlook.
• Korean 20-day exports for October indicated still-worsening global demand. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

27 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor An Unsustainable Rebound for Japanese Growth in September

• Japan learns to live with Covid, but must still contend with slower global growth, and bad weather.
• The renminbi is tumbling, along with every other currency, but capital flight risks compel PBoC action.
• Rumours of a coup in China are based on a rogue Twitter account, and should be discounted.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor FX Intervention Begins, as the BoJ Feigns Innocence

• Japan has embarked on direct currency intervention in support of the yen for the first time since 1998.
• The main goal of this intervention is to slow the pace of depreciation, rather than draw a line in the sand.
• Monetary policy will be kept at its current easy settings, undermining any attempt to defend a level.

Craig BothamChina+

PM Datanote: Governor Q&A, Japan, September

In one line: A long pause for monetary policy, but thinking on the yen is shifting

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22 SEPTEMBER 2022: No change from the BoJ

Doves defiant at the BoJ

Craig BothamChina+

21 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Yen Weakness will Continue to Push Japanese Inflation Higher

• Japanese inflation continues to climb, driven by cost-push pressures and base effects.
• The BoJ will not change tack, despite the multi-year high in CPI inflation.
• We expect Governor Kuroda to hold the line on both inflation and the yen at tomorrow’s meeting.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor The External Picture Deteriorates for a Helpless Japan

• Japan’s trade deficit blew out in August, thanks to energy costs and a falling yen.
• Exports are softer than they seem, flattered for now by price and base effects, but slowing at the margin.
• Yen weakness is worrying policymakers, but it can’t be fixed by unilateral intervention.

Craig BothamChina+

30 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Inflation Climbed Again in August, but the BoJ Likely Will Double-Down

• Tokyo CPI inflation rose more than expected in August, thanks to food, energy, and base effects.
• The BoJ will likely feel more, not less, dovish, as higher food and energy prices weigh on demand.
• Japan remains unique; policymakers will welcome rising household inflation expectations.

Craig BothamChina+

24 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor The Global Slowdown is Catching Up with Japan

Japanese manufacturing and services both slowed this month, according to the flash PMI surveys.

Fading global demand is taking its toll on Japanese manufacturing, after a short hiatus.

Covid is the main headwind for the services sector, but not the only one, so any revival will be brief.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Signs of a Revival for Chinese Real Estate

China’s property market is still in a tailspin, with no relief visible on the immediate horizon. 

The central government still refuses to get involved, and local government resources are inadequate. 

Japanese CPI inflation rose again in July, but the BoJ will remain on hold through 2023. 

Craig BothamChina+

1 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Change from Policymakers in Japan or China on the Horizon

Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.

Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.

China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.

Craig BothamChina+

25 July 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Growth Flags Again, Thanks to Resurgent Covid Cases

Japan had been recovering reasonably well from its Omicron wave, but a new outbreak now looms.

Growth is already under pressure, even before official restrictions are rolled out.

Inflation looks manageable, especially with demand pressures now waning.

Craig BothamChina+

22 July 2022 China+ Monitor No Change or Action on the Yen, Now or Next Year, from the BoJ

Thursday’s BoJ meeting followed the usual script, with added emphasis from Governor Kuroda.

The central bank’s current forecasts imply no change in policy until 2024, at least.

Early Korean export data suggest global demand is still waning, and China’s reopening boost is over.

Craig BothamChina+

PM Datanote: Governor Q&A, Japan, July

In one line: Same as it ever was

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21 JULY 2022: A temporary reprieve for trade data

A more downbeat BoJ stays on hold

A welcome upside surprise for Japanese trade

Korean 20-day trade recovers, but the trend is still slowing

Craig BothamChina+

4 July 2022 Global Trade is Slowing, Creating Another Headwind for China

The Caixin manufacturing PMI confirmed a healthy rebound for China in June.

Domestic demand, however, remains weak, and data from Korea suggest external demand is fading.

Japanese inflation surprised to the downside in June, reinforcing the BoJ’s dovish position.

Craig BothamChina+

27 June 2022 Yen Weakness will Keep Inflation Above Target; the BoJ Won't Care

Japanese CPI inflation was unchanged in May, andremains above the 2% target.

We think inflation will remain above target for the rest of the year, thanks to recent yen weakness.

But the BoJ will still see no reason to hike, with cost-push inflation viewed as “unsustainable”.

Craig BothamChina+