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Japan’s Tokyo CPI broke through its 2% target, as widely expected, but policy won’t change.
Inflation driven by base effects, and food prices, is seen as unsustainable by the BoJ.
Imported inflation will be viewed in a similar light, so no change in the policy rate is on the horizon.
The BoJ shrugged off currency fears, keeping rates on hold and even leaning into YCC.
Acting as a sign of determination to keep rates capped, markets duly reacted by dumping the yen.
Japan’s Ministry of Finance reacted swiftly, and irritably; intervention now looms on the horizon.
In one line: Cracks appear in the BoJ’s positive yen view, despite the renewed commitment to dovish policy
The BoJ doubles down on yield curve control, defying market speculation
Japanese inflation is still rising, and is all but guaranteed to break through its target in April...
...But the BoJ has already indicated it has no intention of changing tack; rates won't rise this year.
Policymakers are flirting with the idea of currency intervention, but Kuroda won't take the lead.
Lockdowns and shuttered factories in China appear to be the culprit behind slowing Japanese exports.
Further weakness seems inevitable as Chinese policy tightens, and regional supply chains collapse.
Underperforming exports again raise questions about the benefits of a weaker yen.
We are downgrading our outlook for Chinese growth, as zero-Covid policies continue to tighten.
Data quality is more questionable than ever, though February was softer than it looked.
Policy support will eventually arrive, but little of substance has materialised, so far.
Japan's services PMI rebounded in March, adding to evidence of a domestic recovery in late Q1.
Unfortunately, 2022 has had a slow start, and GDP probably fell in Q1, quarter-on-quarter.
Inflation still isn't behaving as the BoJ would like, but the sands are shifting on the yen.
BoJ remains accommodative despite expecting to hit its target this year
Inflation rises on energy, but underlying pressures are picking up too
BoJ statement and outlook make some modest changes
Governor Kuroda quashes rate hike rumours
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