9 May 2022 Above Target At Last, but the BoJ Still Won't be Satisfied

Japan’s Tokyo CPI broke through its 2% target, as widely expected, but policy won’t change.

Inflation driven by base effects, and food prices, is seen as unsustainable by the BoJ.

Imported inflation will be viewed in a similar light, so no change in the policy rate is on the horizon.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Apr 2022 The BoJ Fiddles While the Yen Burns, the MoF Readies the Hose

The BoJ shrugged off currency fears, keeping rates on hold and even leaning into YCC.

Acting as a sign of determination to keep rates capped, markets duly reacted by dumping the yen.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance reacted swiftly, and irritably; intervention now looms on the horizon.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: BoJ Press Conference, Japan, April

In one line: Cracks appear in the BoJ’s positive yen view, despite the renewed commitment to dovish policy

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 28 APR 2022: JPY takes a tumble as the BoJ holds the line

The BoJ doubles down on yield curve control, defying market speculation

Craig BothamChina+

25 Apr 2022 The BoJ will Remain Indifferent as Inflation Approaches Its Target

Japanese inflation is still rising, and is all but guaranteed to break through its target in April...

...But the BoJ has already indicated it has no intention of changing tack; rates won't rise this year.

Policymakers are flirting with the idea of currency intervention, but Kuroda won't take the lead.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Apr 2022 China Drags on Exports, Adding to Japan's Problems as the Yen Drops

Lockdowns and shuttered factories in China appear to be the culprit behind slowing Japanese exports.

Further weakness seems inevitable as Chinese policy tightens, and regional supply chains collapse.

Underperforming exports again raise questions about the benefits of a weaker yen.

Craig BothamChina+

11 Apr 2022 Omicron Should Weigh Heavily on Chinese Q1 GDP, in Theory

We are downgrading our outlook for Chinese growth, as zero-Covid policies continue to tighten. 

Data quality is more questionable than ever, though February was softer than it looked. 

Policy support will eventually arrive, but little of substance has materialised, so far. 

Craig BothamChina+

6 Apr 2022 PMIs Show Domestic and External Demand are Diverging for Japan

Japan's services PMI rebounded in March, adding to evidence of a domestic recovery in late Q1.

Unfortunately, 2022 has had a slow start, and GDP probably fell in Q1, quarter-on-quarter.

Inflation still isn't behaving as the BoJ would like, but the sands are shifting on the yen.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Mar 2022 More of the Wrong Sort of Inflation for the BoJ, as the Yen Plummets

• Energy and food push inflation higher, and Japan is set to beat its target next month...
• ...but the BoJ won't be moved, as demand-pull inflation remains as elusive as ever.
• Yen weakness is the biggest challenge to the BoJ's position, and likely will force a shift by H2.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Mar 2022 Japanese PMIs Add to Evidence of a Slowdown in Global Trade

• We think Japan's flash manufacturing PMI was mostly bad news, despite a bounce in the headline.
• Forward-looking components turned south, and we expect the final print, and next month's, to be softer.
• A drop in new export orders is another signal that global trade is struggling amid renewed shocks.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Mar 2022 The BoJ Splits from the Pack, as Energy Costs Climb

• Japan is not entirely immune to global inflation shocks; CPI is rising as energy costs surge.
• The BoJ, however, has the luxury of choosing the sort of inflation it wants, and will not be hiking.
• Don't get too excited by rumours of a turnaround in Chinese policy; nothing much has changed.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18.03.2022: No surprises on inflation or monetary policy from Japan

BoJ remains accommodative despite expecting to hit its target this year

Inflation rises on energy, but underlying pressures are picking up too

Craig BothamChina+

28 Feb 2022 Japanese Inflation is Creeping Higher, but the Target is Still Distant

• Tokyo CPI inflation reached its highest level since December 2019 in February, and will climb further.
• The target is still unlikely to be breached, however, and this is not the type of inflation the BoJ wants.
• The BoK remains hawkish, despite holding rates, and the hiking cycle has further to run.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Feb 2022 A Brief Lull, but Japanese Inflation will Soon Jump, Relatively Speaking

Craig BothamChina+

31 Jan 2022 Japan's Inflation is Not Quite as Weak as it Appears

• Tokyo CPI inflation was stronger than it looked in January, distorted by government policy.
• Inflation should start to rebound by Q2, but will not prompt any changes from the BoJ.
• The PBOC has been busy, but it's getting ready for the holidays, not panicking about growth.

Craig BothamChina+

24 Jan 2022 Underlying Inflation Pressures are Already Fading in Japan

• Japanese headline inflation picked up in December, but core measures lost momentum.
• Early Korean trade data point to a weak start to 2022 for global trade, thanks in part to Omicron.
• External demand should rebound swiftly, but the bigger risk is disruption to Chinese production.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Jan 2022 Inflation Risks on the Rise in Japan, but Not Enough to Change Policy

• The biggest change from the latest BoJ meeting was a reappraisal of the inflation outlook.
• Risks to inflation are now seen as balanced, rather than to the downside, the first change since 2014.
• Still, there will be no change in key policy settings for the next two years, with the target not in sight.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18.01.22 - Kuroda defiant at BoJ meeting

BoJ statement and outlook make some modest changes

Governor Kuroda quashes rate hike rumours

Craig BothamChina+

10 Jan 2022 Energy Leads Japanese Inflation Higher in December

• Tokyo CPI inflation reached a two-year high in December, thanks largely to energy prices.
• Inflation will climb further yet, but will still fall short of the BoJ's 2% target.
• Chinese reserves data show the PBoC has been leaning against renminbi appreciation.

Craig BothamChina+

20 Dec 2021 The BoJ Takes Another Step Back, but Don't Call it Hawkish

• The BoJ kept its main policy tools unchanged in December, but tinkered around the edges.
• An announced reduction in corporate debt purchases had already begun in practice.
• The taper is offset by an extension of SME lending, which has been a bigger balance sheet driver.

Craig BothamChina+