Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

bank of korea

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 01.12.21 - Stabilisation in China, and a boost to Korean exports

Disparity with Chinese official data driven by falling new orders and employment, and further supply delays

Japanese capex data hints at little revision to GDP

Resumption of Chinese demand lifts Korean trade, but it’s also flattered by lumpy ship exports

Craig BothamChina+

26 Nov 2021 An Expected Hike from the BoK, and Now a Long Pause

  • The Bank of Korea hiked as expected, taking the policy rate to 1.00%, from 0.75%.

    Further hikes were made conditional on a plethora of factors, providing plenty of wriggle room.

    We expect a pause until mid-2022, as Covid cases spike, and with an election looming in March.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 25.11.21 Bank of Korea hikes as expected

Turning more hawkish, but caution remains the order of the day

Craig BothamChina+

23 Nov 2021 Bottlenecks and Chinese Policy to Ease, but Keep Calm

  • Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains.
  • Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector.
  • Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22.11.21 Hope for growth from the PBoC and Korean exports

Preliminary Korean data gives reason for hope on trade, despite the slowdown

PBOC stands pat, but easing is on the way - just not for the property sector

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 01.11.21

Intensifying energy crisis weighed on manufacturing activity in October

Rising Covid cases once again disrupted the services sector

Base effects and energy support Korean exports

Craig BothamChina+

29 Oct 2021 The BoJ Turns Bearish on Near- Term Risks

  • No change in policy settings from the BoJ, but a decided turn for the worse in the growth outlook.
  • The coronavirus, coupled with supply-side issues, is weighing on the short-term outlook.
  • Currency weakness is drawing greater attention, and we think the BoJ will need to act next year.

Craig BothamChina+

PANTHEON CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22.10.21

  • A return to headline inflation for Japan masks ongoing core deflation.

    Surprising strength from the manufacturing PMI.

    The axe is yet to fall for Evergrande.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: 20-day Exports, Korea, October 2021

  • In one line: Preliminary Korean data suggests relatively stable external backdrop

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21.10.21

  • Preliminary Korean data suggests relatively stable external backdrop

    Evergrande is back, but for how long?

Craig BothamChina+

PANTHEON CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21.10.21

  • Preliminary Korean data suggests relatively stable external backdrop
  • Evergrande is back, but for how long?

Craig BothamChina+

15 Oct 2021 The Evergrande Fiasco and Energy Prices Will Spoil the Recovery

  • A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds.
  • Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start.
  • The real pain from the dual crises will be felt in Q4 and beyond.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Oct 2021 A Hawkish Hold, but Future Hikes Likely to be Interrupted

  • The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike.
  • Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth.
  • China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: Bank of Korea decision, October 2021

  • In one line: No back to back hikes from the BoK, but a November hike is all but assured

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 12.10.21

  • No back to back hikes from the BoK, but a November hike is all but assured

    Renewed market intervention a possibility

Craig BothamChina+

8 Oct 2021 No Capital Outflows Yet, but Contagion is Still Spreading

  • No cause for concern in foreign exchange reserves data.
  • Capital outflow pressure appears modest and re- serves sufficient, for now.
  • Property sector stress is growing, however, and cracks are appearing for key actors.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Oct 2021 I Don't Want that Much for Christmas (Luckily)

  • China's energy rationing is already hurting domes- tic economic activity...
  • ...But it may represent opportunities for exporters of energy intensive goods.
  • Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: Full-month exports, Korea, September 2021

  • In one line: Korean exports may have benefitted from China’s energy problems despite a slowdown

Craig BothamChina+

27 Sept 2021 A Property Sector Microcosm: The Economics of Evergrande

  • Evergrande stumbles on, but more interlinkages with other sectors are being uncovered.
  • China's property sector as a whole is really the Evergrande situation writ large.
  • The anticipated economic fallout will not be isolated to China, expect significant regional spillover

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: 20-day exports, Korea, September 2021

  • In one line: Trade stays strong despite correction

Craig BothamChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence