China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Trade Balance
China's Exports Continue their Decline in the First Two Months
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China Trade Surplus Widens as Covid Waves Slam Imports and Exports
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's Trade Flows are Buffeted by Covid Disruptions and Fading Demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China’s Trade Balance Barely Rises as Import Growth Overtakes Export Growth
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s export data for October indicate weakening global demand, especially in the U.S. and E.U.
- The goods trade surplus widened only slightly, as imports held up relatively well.
- FX reserves rose in October, with more going on than accounted for by the official explanation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s current account surplus exploded to a re- cord $144B in Q3...
- ...driven by an expanded goods trade surplus as exports rebounded faster than imports.
- Net outflows of foreign direct investment indicate a fall in confidence in China’s economic outlook.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Caixin manufacturing PMI showed a moderating pace of decline.
- Some companies increased input purchases, ahead of new product launches.
- Korean exports fell—notably to China and Japan— indicating regional supply-chain issues.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's GDP rebound stronger than expected
Industrial output boosted by unblocking of supply chains
Consumption continues to struggle under zero-Covid policy
Property drags down fixed asset investment
Home prices fall more quickly in existing home market
China trade balance remains large despite slowing export growth
Japan flash manufacturing PMI points to a gloomy outlook
Craig BothamChina+
- Japanese exports have been almost flat in dollar terms, despite headline growth in yen terms.
- Rapid import growth and a large trade deficit contin- ue to put pressure on the yen.
- China’s benchmark lending rate was unchanged, as policymakers focus on the Party Congress.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan learns to live with Covid, but must still contend with slower global growth, and bad weather.
- The renminbi is tumbling, along with every other currency, but capital flight risks compel PBoC action.
- Rumours of a coup in China are based on a rogue Twitter account, and should be discounted.
Craig BothamChina+
- Holiday effects exaggerated the weakness of Korean exports in September...
- ...But global demand evidently is cooling; nominal trade data are inflated by energy prices.
- China is now clearly a significant drag on global growth, as stimulus focuses on supply over demand.
Craig BothamChina+
- Japan’s trade deficit blew out in August, thanks to energy costs and a falling yen.
- Exports are softer than they seem, flattered for now by price and base effects, but slowing at the margin.
- Yen weakness is worrying policymakers, but it can’t be fixed by unilateral intervention.
Craig BothamChina+
- Chinese export growth slowed more than expected
in August, as reality catches up after reopening.
- Export growth should continue to weaken, and import compression looks mostly played out...
- ...This means that the last support for the renminbi is crumbling, at a pivotal moment.
Craig BothamChina+
The global slowdown catches up with China
Craig BothamChina+
- Korean export growth slowed again in August, and was worse than the headline...
- ...coupled with downbeat regional manufacturing PMIs, the outlook for global trade is bleak.
- Inflationary pressures are at least receding, along with demand, bringing a measure of relief.
Craig BothamChina+
