12 Jan 2023 China+ Monitor Plunging New Credit Precedes Likely Revival from Early 2023

• New aggregate financing plummeted in December as China was buffeted by gigantic Covid waves...
• ...But big cities appear to be past the worst, and many other regions are following close behind...
• We expect a marked rebirth of credit demand post-Chinese New Year, building in Q2 onwards.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 OCTOBER 2022: Policy-supported sectors outperform

Policy-supported sectors outperform as industrial profits continue to decline

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24 OCTOBER 2022: Official GDP beats expectations on infrastructure support, despite property drag

China's GDP rebound stronger than expected
Industrial output boosted by unblocking of supply chains
Consumption continues to struggle under zero-Covid policy
Property drags down fixed asset investment
Home prices fall more quickly in existing home market
China trade balance remains large despite slowing export growth
Japan flash manufacturing PMI points to a gloomy outlook

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Data Note: Japan National CPI, September

• In one line: The BOJ will Hold the Line Despite Core CPI Creeping up

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 14 OCTOBER 2022: Inflation shows demand is still weak in China

Food again pushes consumer price inflation higher

More falls to come for PPI

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 10 OCTOBER 2022: The same old story for China's service sector

Zero-Covid strikes again

Craig BothamChina+

10 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor China's Reserves Look Relatively Stable, but Don't be Fooled

• The September drop in China’s FX reserves can be explained by valuation effects alone...
• ...But other evidence suggests China is still facing capital outflows, intervening in FX markets.
• The renminbi will probably continue to depreciate into year-end, absent a rescue from the Fed.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 07 OCTOBER 2022: Another drop for Chinese FX reserves

The steady drip, drip, drip of leaks

Craig BothamChina+

7 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Slower Global Growth has its Positives when Inflation is a Worry

• The September PMIs confirmed that global growth, and trade, are slowing, or even falling.
• The good news is that inflationary pressures are also fading, as weaker demand eases supply constraints.
• Japan’s domestic economy saw a healthy bounce in September, after a spike in Covid cases in August.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 05 OCTOBER 2022: Japanese domestic activity recovered in September

Japan’s post-Covid bounce continues

Craig BothamChina+

5 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Core Inflation Starts to Heat Up in Japan, but It's Mostly the Yen

• Headline Tokyo CPI inflation fell in September on base effects, but core inflation climbed further.
• Yen weakness is driving up raw material costs, and these are now being passed on to consumers.
• Korean factories are struggling as exports falter, but the BoK will likely still have to tighten aggressively.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 04 OCTOBER 2022: Core inflation rises as cost pressures build for Japan

Yen weakness makes itself felt in core inflation

Korean factory output fell further in September

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 03 OCTOBER 2022: Headwinds build for Japanese manufacturing

Headwinds build for Japanese manufacturing

Factory activity softened further as Q3 drew to a close

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 30 SEPTEMBER 2022: Chinese growth probably slowed in September

The SOE-private sector divide widens in manufacturing 

Zero-Covid weighs on the services sector once more

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 26 SEPTEMBER 2022: Weather and Covid drive divergences in Japanese manufacturing and services

Bad weather weighs on domestic manufacturing

Services recover as Covid recedes

Craig BothamChina+

27 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor An Unsustainable Rebound for Japanese Growth in September

• Japan learns to live with Covid, but must still contend with slower global growth, and bad weather.
• The renminbi is tumbling, along with every other currency, but capital flight risks compel PBoC action.
• Rumours of a coup in China are based on a rogue Twitter account, and should be discounted.

Craig BothamChina+

26 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Property Stimulus Starts to Show in the Data, but Much More is Needed

• August was another bad month for China’s property
  sector, with sales, starts, and prices all falling.
• Bailout funds are visible in the data, but so far have only moved the needle from “terrible” to “very bad”.
• More money is needed to break the downward spiral trapping the sector, and restore market confidence.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor FX Intervention Begins, as the BoJ Feigns Innocence

• Japan has embarked on direct currency intervention in support of the yen for the first time since 1998.
• The main goal of this intervention is to slow the pace of depreciation, rather than draw a line in the sand.
• Monetary policy will be kept at its current easy settings, undermining any attempt to defend a level.

Craig BothamChina+

PM Datanote: Governor Q&A, Japan, September

In one line: A long pause for monetary policy, but thinking on the yen is shifting

Craig BothamChina+