Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Asia Publications

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24 Dec 2020 Is China Santa or the Grinch in the Global Inflation Outlook

China plays a pivotal role in the global inflation outlook.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)24th Dec 2020 00:10Asia

30 Nov 2020 Enjoy the Roller-Coaster in Chinese Industrial Profits, It Won't Last Long

China's industrial profits data for October are a taste of what the silly season for economic data will look like for the first quarter of 2021.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)30th Nov 2020 00:10Asia

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27th November 2020

Base effects flatter Chinese industrial profits growth in October. Volatility in non-core prices further drive down CPI deflation in Tokyo.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)27th Nov 2020 15:48Asia

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30th October 2020

Will Q4 be the calm before the real storm in Japan's labour market? The nation will follow Tokyo in its descent into outright deflation. Expect momentum in Japanese production...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)30th Oct 2020 14:59Asia

30 Oct 2020 Expect the BoJ to Extend its Covid Support Measures in March

The Bank of Japan yesterday left its -0.10% policy balance rate and ten-year yield target of "around zero" unchanged, as widely expected.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)29th Oct 2020 18:10Asia

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29th October 2020

Korea's surprisingly strong Q3 GDP bounce was very narrow. Chinese industrial profits are finally rolling over.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)29th Oct 2020 16:14Asia

29 Oct 2020 Winter is Coming... China's Industry is Set for a Cold Spell in Q4

September likely was as good as it will get for Chinese factories this year.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)28th Oct 2020 18:10Asia

28 Oct 2020 Korea's Q3 GDP Bounce is Likely to be Downgraded, Q4 will be Softer

Korea is officially out of recession, with GDP rising by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, following the 3.2% plunge in Q2.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)27th Oct 2020 18:10Asia

26 Oct 2020 Outright CPI Deflation in Japan is Here, Expect an Exit by Mid-2021

Outright CPI deflation likely already has taken hold in Japan. Friday's data showed inflation falling to zero percent in September, from 0.2% in the previous month.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)26th Oct 2020 00:10Asia

29 Sept 2020 India's Labour Reforms Go Hand-in-Hand with the Agri-Revolution

Last week, we wrote about the significant legislative developments in India's agricultural sector--see here-- which potentially could expedite the economy's move...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)29th Sep 2020 00:10Asia

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 September 2020

Industrial profits growth in China likely has peaked

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)28th Sep 2020 15:14Asia

1 Sep 2020 Chinese Manufacturing is Peaking, While Services are Still Catching-up

The momentum in Chinese manufacturing waned in August, with the official manufacturing PMI slipping marginally to 51.0, from 51.1 in July,

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)1st Sep 2020 00:10Asia

28 Aug 2020 The Devil is in the Details in China's Supposedly Strong Profits Picture

Industrial profits in China continues to go from strength to strength, with growth accelerating to 19.6% year-over-year in July, from 11.5% in July.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)27th Aug 2020 22:10Asia

29 July 2020 The Good and Bad in the Recovery of Chinese Industrial Profits

Industrial profits in China continued to strengthen in June, rising by 11.5% year-over-year, marking an acceleration from 6.0% in the previous month.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)29th Jul 2020 00:10Asia

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 July 2020

Surge in Chinese profits suggests industry no longer needs additional life support, Japan's all-industry gauge likely returned to the black in June

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)27th Jul 2020 08:00Asia

10 July 2020 The End is in Sight for PPI Deflation in China, to the Relief of Factories

The downward pressure from factory-gate prices on Chinese industrial profits will continue to ease in the coming months.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)10th Jul 2020 00:10Asia

1 July 2020 It's Official... Risks of Covid Clusters Don't Jeopardise China's Recovery

China's economy looks to have shrugged off the supposed "second wave" of Covid-19, sparked by a cluster in Beijing's largest wholesale market for fruit and veg,...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)1st Jul 2020 00:10Asia

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29 June 2020

Commodity-price pressures dampen Chinese profits' return to growth, Retail sales in Japan recover only modestly in May

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)29th Jun 2020 07:20Asia

26 June 2020 Don't be Too Worried About China's Current Account Deficit in Q1

The final numbers for China's balance of payments in the first quarter showed that the current account descended to a $34B deficit, from a surplus of $30B a year earlier.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)26th Jun 2020 00:10Asia

11 June 2020 Promising Money Data Imply the PBoC can Take a Step Back

The People's Bank of China likely will be more than content with the latest money and credit data, to the point where it probably won't see the need to cut interest rates...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)11th Jun 2020 00:10Asia

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