Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Policy Rate

PM Data Note: CPI Japan December

  • Japanese Inflation Edges Up on Higher Energy Costs

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PM Note: Japan BoJ Policy Decision January

  • In one line: The BoJ Maintains Policy Settings and Adds New Tool

Duncan WrigleyChina+

21 Dec 2022 China+ Monitor BoJ Governor Kuroda Insists the YCC Tweak is not a Rate Hike

  • The BoJ widened the 10-year yield trading band yesterday, taking markets completely by surprise...
  • ...The official rationale is to alleviate the side-effects of yield curve control on the bond market...
  • ...But we see it as providing the BoJ with more flexibility on timing policy tightening, bolstering the yen.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PM Note: Japan BoJ Decision December

  • In one line: the BoJ Tweaks Trading Range on 10-Year Yields

Duncan WrigleyChina+

19 Dec 2022 China+ Monitor Japan's Services PMI Brightens, While Manufacturing is Dim

  • The uptick in Japan’s services PMI in December
    shows the impact of tourism support...
  • ...But the gloomy manufacturing index will persuade the BoJ to keep monetary policy settings loose.
  • China’s CEWC called for prioritising consumption and supporting “housing improvement” in 2023.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

29 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Policy-Supported Sectors Outperform in Broad Profit Decline

China’s industrial profits fell faster in October, owing to Covid-related disruptions and soft price trends.

Autos and equipment manufacturing are exceptions; profits are rising thanks to policy support.

Changing Covid policy holds the key to an eventual improvement in broad industrial profits.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

28 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Tokyo Inflation Speeds up on Food Price Hikes

Tokyo headline CPI accelerated further in November, on the back of food price rises... 

...But the BoJ is likely to view domestic demand as still weak, and so leave monetary policy unchanged. 

China’s RRR cut is mainly about funding fiscal policy to cushion growth, as Covid cases surge again. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

25 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor The BoK is Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place

The BoK hiked the policy rate by only 25 basis points, concerned about growth as well as inflation. 

Governor Rhee would not give a timeline for rate cuts, even as the Bank cut its 2023 growth outlook. 

Japan’s flash PMIs for November indicated a continued economic downturn, after the Q3 GDP fall. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PM Note: Korea BoK Policy Rate November

  • The BoK hikes by only 25 basis points, balancing worries about growth and inflation

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24 NOVEMBER 2022: The BoK hikes by only 25 basis points

The BoK hikes by only 25 basis points, balancing worries about growth and inflation

Duncan WrigleyChina+

22 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Korean Exports Indicate Global Economy is in Poor Shape

  • Korean 20-day exports fell at a faster rate in November, in a further weakening of global demand.
  • Exports shrank to most major markets, with a dramatic decline in shipments to China.
  • China’s one-year loan prime rate was unchanged, as the PBoC relied on targeted liquidity measures.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

21 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Inflation is Picking up on Higher Import Costs

  • Japanese headline CPI rose sharply in October, on the back of food price hikes...
  • ...But the BoJ is likely to keep monetary policy loose, expecting core inflation to wane in fiscal year 2023.
  • The PBoC warned about future inflationary risk in China, as bond markets responded to policy shifts.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

17 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Policy Shift Points to Housing Market Gradual Recovery Path

  • Steepening home price declines in October high-lighted the need for further targeted policy support.
  • High-quality developers will benefit from a virtuous cycle of better funding driving sales...
  • ...But the housing recovery will be uneven and drawn-out as confidence is gradually restored.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

16 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Economy Likely Hit a Bottom in October, as Policy Shifts

  • China’s economy suffered the October blues, due to Covid measures and Congress disruptions.
  • Reviving the domestic economy is crucial, with exports trending down on a gloomy global outlook.
  • Basic shifts in Covid and property policies will pave the way for a gradual growth recovery in 2023.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

31 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor The BoJ is not for Turning, Despite Rising Inflation

  • The BoJ acknowledges higher CPI inflation for the
    rest of 2022...
  • ...But continues to forecast a drop in the core rate to below the 2% target in late 2023.
  • Nothing in the Tokyo CPI data will make the BoJ change its assessment.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

25 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor China's Reopening Rebound is More Flawed than it First Appears

  • Official data show a decent, but highly uneven, Q3 economic bounce.
  • Property and consumption remain the critical areas of economic weakness.
  • The Congress signalled economic policy continuity, with meaningful change unlikely before mid-2023.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

21 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Exports' Uptick will Falter over Winter

  • Japanese exports have been almost flat in dollar terms, despite headline growth in yen terms.
  • Rapid import growth and a large trade deficit contin- ue to put pressure on the yen.
  • China’s benchmark lending rate was unchanged, as policymakers focus on the Party Congress.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

18 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Xi's Speech at Congress Signals Policy Continuity

  • Xi's Congressional opening speech signalled no immediate shift from current policy settings.
  • We see zero-Covid policy continuing until at least mid-2023, if not later.
  • The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged, in implicit acknowledgement of China's liquidity trap.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

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