Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

March

9 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Subsidies Shore up Chinese Exports, but Pressure is Building

China reported another record trade surplus in July, thanks to surprisingly strong export growth...

...but exports are starting to slow, at the margin, and still face structural headwinds this year.

Generous government subsidies cannot hold back the tide indefinitely, and risk political blowback.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Supply-Side Stresses are Fading, Bringing Hope of Disinflation

Supply chains are recovering, with delivery times and shipping costs improving in East Asia.

Lower raw material costs are reducing cost-push  inflation, and should feed through to output prices.

The main supply-side risks now are political, as China retaliates for Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwanese trip.

Craig BothamChina+

21 July 2022 China+ Monitor Monetary Policy Can't Save China, as Borrowers Go on Strike

China’s loan prime rates were left unchanged on Wednesday, continuing the PBoC’s passive streak.

Monetary easing would have little effect at the moment, with loan demand falling.

Credit is increasingly being used to plug balance sheets, rather than support productive activity.

Craig BothamChina+

11 July 2022 China is Headed for a Balance Sheet Recession in Q2

We think China entered a balance sheet recession in Q2, and policy needs recalibrating to fix it.

The combination of the property downturn, tech crackdown, and zero-Covid, have hit asset values.

Balance sheet repair takes time, and breaks monetary transmission; fiscal support is needed.

Craig BothamChina+

1 July 2022 A Proper Reopening Bounce for China in June

Chinese activity continued its reopening recovery in June, particularly outside manufacturing.

The surveys point to month-on-month growth, but not enough to save GDP from a quarterly decline.

More stimulus is needed to sustain this bounce, with households and SMEs still under pressure.

Craig BothamChina+

24 June 2022 Japan's Domestic Recovery Starts to Lose Momentum

Japanese manufacturing slowed further in June, likely reflecting weakening global demand.

The service sector extended its recovery from the Omicron-induced lows, but will peak soon.

Price pressures rose further, but the labour market still looks soft, so no change likely from the BoJ.

Craig BothamChina+

15 June 2022 Yen Intervention Looks More Likely, but Limited to Damage Control

Renewed yen weakness has drawn policymaker attention, with markets on alert for intervention.

Fighting currency weakness, however, is difficult, and Japan has few tools available.

Policymakers will likely be limited to fighting a rearguard action, reducing volatility on the way down.

Craig BothamChina+

1 June 2022 A Dead Cat Bounce for Chinese Activity, but Reanimation is Nigh

Chinese PMIs rose in May, but are still sub-50, signalling month-on-month declines.

We expect a return to growth in June, as zero-Covid restrictions ease further, but it will be gradual.

The latest stimulus announcements provide a touch of new money, but still look lacklustre.

Craig BothamChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence