China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Loan Prime Rate
- New aggregate financing plummeted in December as China was buffeted by gigantic Covid waves...
- ...But big cities appear to be past the worst, and many other regions are following close behind...
- We expect a marked rebirth of credit demand post-Chinese New Year, building in Q2 onwards.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ widened the 10-year yield trading band yesterday, taking markets completely by surprise...
- ...The official rationale is to alleviate the side-effects of yield curve control on the bond market...
- ...But we see it as providing the BoJ with more flexibility on timing policy tightening, bolstering the yen.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: the BoJ Tweaks Trading Range on 10-Year Yields
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoK hikes by only 25 basis points, balancing worries about growth and inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korean 20-day exports fell at a faster rate in November, in a further weakening of global demand.
- Exports shrank to most major markets, with a dramatic decline in shipments to China.
- China’s one-year loan prime rate was unchanged, as the PBoC relied on targeted liquidity measures.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ acknowledges higher CPI inflation for the
rest of 2022...
- ...But continues to forecast a drop in the core rate to below the 2% target in late 2023.
- Nothing in the Tokyo CPI data will make the BoJ change its assessment.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japanese exports have been almost flat in dollar terms, despite headline growth in yen terms.
- Rapid import growth and a large trade deficit contin- ue to put pressure on the yen.
- China’s benchmark lending rate was unchanged, as policymakers focus on the Party Congress.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Xi's Congressional opening speech signalled no immediate shift from current policy settings.
- We see zero-Covid policy continuing until at least mid-2023, if not later.
- The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged, in implicit acknowledgement of China's liquidity trap.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Another outsized but dovish rate hike by the BoK
Craig BothamChina+
- Japan has embarked on direct currency intervention in support of the yen for the first time since 1998.
- The main goal of this intervention is to slow the pace of depreciation, rather than draw a line in the sand.
- Monetary policy will be kept at its current easy settings, undermining any attempt to defend a level.
Craig BothamChina+
In one line: A long pause for monetary policy, but thinking on the yen is shifting
Craig BothamChina+
Doves defiant at the BoJ
Craig BothamChina+
Still no change expected from the BoJ, despite another jump in inflation
Lending rates left on hold in China
Craig BothamChina+
- The renminbi is weakening once again, in the face of dollar strength, but that’s not the full story.
- The currency’s ability to defy gravity is fading, and this reflects the growing impotence of the PBoC.
- The liquidity trap is closing tighter, creating an asymmetric profile of outcomes for monetary policy.
Craig BothamChina+
