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Chinese CPI inflation jumped in April, due to soaring food prices, but that will not worry the PBoC.
Zero-Covid has pushed up food prices, even as it depresses core inflation.
The PBoC has joined fiscal policymakers in making announcements with no new information.
Zero-Covid caught up with Chinese exports in April, as inventories were exhausted...
...But demand played a role too, with higher energy prices dragging down trade with Japan and Europe.
The fundamental backdrop for the renminbi is deteriorating, highlighted by plunging FX reserves.
Japan’s Tokyo CPI broke through its 2% target, as widely expected, but policy won’t change.
Inflation driven by base effects, and food prices, is seen as unsustainable by the BoJ.
Imported inflation will be viewed in a similar light, so no change in the policy rate is on the horizon.
The BoJ shrugged off currency fears, keeping rates on hold and even leaning into YCC.
Acting as a sign of determination to keep rates capped, markets duly reacted by dumping the yen.
Japan’s Ministry of Finance reacted swiftly, and irritably; intervention now looms on the horizon.
China's currency is finally succumbing to pressure from multiple fronts, and has further to fall.
The renminbi poses a key constraint to PBoC policy, which Beijing will ultimately override.
April export data from Korea show that China's bat- tle with Covid will weigh heavily on global trade.
Lockdowns and shuttered factories in China appear to be the culprit behind slowing Japanese exports.
Further weakness seems inevitable as Chinese policy tightens, and regional supply chains collapse.
Underperforming exports again raise questions about the benefits of a weaker yen.
China's economy beat expectations in Q1, but is still falling short of the 2022 growth target.
The GDP data probably overstate economic growth, but either way things will get worse in Q2.
The battle with Covid is proving extremely costly; it will necessitate more stimulus, and soon.
Less bullish, but still optimistic on external demand
China's FX reserves fell again in March, amidst reports of large portfolio outflows, thanks to Putin.
One by one, the key supports for the renminbi are being chipped away, and Q2 will be turbulent...
...but H2 will see a downward trend consolidate, as multiple headwinds force the RMB to submit.
External demand began to perk up in late Q4, if you look through the base effects
Bank lending rates follow the MLF down
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