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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Loan Prime Rate

12 May 2022 Food is Driving Up Chinese Inflation, but the Core Rate is Falling

Chinese CPI inflation jumped in April, due to soaring food prices, but that will not worry the PBoC.

Zero-Covid has pushed up food prices, even as it depresses core inflation.

The PBoC has joined fiscal policymakers in making announcements with no new information.

Craig BothamChina+

10 May Trade Disruption Builds for China, as Restrictions Tighten

Zero-Covid caught up with Chinese exports in April, as inventories were exhausted...

...But demand played a role too, with higher energy prices dragging down trade with Japan and Europe.

The fundamental backdrop for the renminbi is deteriorating, highlighted by plunging FX reserves.

Craig BothamChina+

9 May 2022 Above Target At Last, but the BoJ Still Won't be Satisfied

Japan’s Tokyo CPI broke through its 2% target, as widely expected, but policy won’t change.

Inflation driven by base effects, and food prices, is seen as unsustainable by the BoJ.

Imported inflation will be viewed in a similar light, so no change in the policy rate is on the horizon.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Apr 2022 The BoJ Fiddles While the Yen Burns, the MoF Readies the Hose

The BoJ shrugged off currency fears, keeping rates on hold and even leaning into YCC.

Acting as a sign of determination to keep rates capped, markets duly reacted by dumping the yen.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance reacted swiftly, and irritably; intervention now looms on the horizon.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Apr 2022 The PBoC Buckles Up for the Renminbi's Wild Ride

China's currency is finally succumbing to pressure from multiple fronts, and has further to fall.

The renminbi poses a key constraint to PBoC policy, which Beijing will ultimately override.

April export data from Korea show that China's bat- tle with Covid will weigh heavily on global trade.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Apr 2022 China Drags on Exports, Adding to Japan's Problems as the Yen Drops

Lockdowns and shuttered factories in China appear to be the culprit behind slowing Japanese exports.

Further weakness seems inevitable as Chinese policy tightens, and regional supply chains collapse.

Underperforming exports again raise questions about the benefits of a weaker yen.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Apr 2022 Caught on the Horns of a Dilemma, with Chinese Characteristics

China's economy beat expectations in Q1, but is still falling short of the 2022 growth target.

The GDP data probably overstate economic growth, but either way things will get worse in Q2.

The battle with Covid is proving extremely costly; it will necessitate more stimulus, and soon.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Apr 2022 China's FX Reserves Data Herald An Inflection Point for the Renminbi

China's FX reserves fell again in March, amidst reports of large portfolio outflows, thanks to Putin.

One by one, the key supports for the renminbi are being chipped away, and Q2 will be turbulent...

...but H2 will see a downward trend consolidate, as multiple headwinds force the RMB to submit.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Mar 2022 More of the Wrong Sort of Inflation for the BoJ, as the Yen Plummets

  • Energy and food push inflation higher, and Japan is set to beat its target next month...
  • ...but the BoJ won't be moved, as demand-pull inflation remains as elusive as ever.
  • Yen weakness is the biggest challenge to the BoJ's position, and likely will force a shift by H2.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Mar 2022 Korean Exports Falter as Demand and Supply Issues Bite

  • Preliminary trade data from Korea point to a loss of momentum for global trade in March.
  • War and Covid have tightened some bottlenecks, but demand is also under pressure from oil prices.
  • The PBoC again opted not to ramp up monetary easing, despite recent messaging from Beijing.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Mar 2022 The BoJ Splits from the Pack, as Energy Costs Climb

  • Japan is not entirely immune to global inflation shocks; CPI is rising as energy costs surge.
  • The BoJ, however, has the luxury of choosing the sort of inflation it wants, and will not be hiking.
  • Don't get too excited by rumours of a turnaround in Chinese policy; nothing much has changed.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Mar 2022 Stronger than Expected, but for How Long, as Headwinds Build

  • China's state sector led a rebound in economic growth in early 2022, as investment surged.
  • Data is always noisy at this time of year, however, and the surge is driven by frontloading spending.
  • Growth will likely slow by April, given soaring Covid cases and base effects, prompting more easing.

Craig BothamChina+

18 Feb 2022 China Weighs on Japanese Exports, but Weakness is Overstated

  • Japanese export growth slowed unexpectedly in January, but it's not as bad as it looks...
  • ..factory closures in China, thanks to holidays, pollution, and Covid, explain much of the weakness.
  • We remain positive on the global demand backdrop for exports, but supply congestion is rising.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Feb 2022 It's Clich├ęd, But Sometimes a Crisis Really is an Opportunity

  • China saw another huge current account surplus in Q4, but it is under increasing pressure.
  • The support provided to China's external balance by the pandemic will fade further in 2022.
  • The renminbi should weaken on a sustained basis in H2, though pressure could show as soon as Q2.

Craig BothamChina+

11 Feb 2022 The State Sector Doubles Down as Risk Appetite Dwindles

  • Record weakness in Chinese M1 growth is only partly attributable to seasonal and base effects...
  • ...Weaker risk appetite, and softer economic activity, underlie the drop in liquid deposits.
  • Credit growth continued to become more heavily dominated by the state in January.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Jan 2022 Chinese Property Sector Update, Keep a Cool Head on Easing

  • China's property sector plummeted over the course of 2021, and nosedives are hard to escape.
  • Policy easing looks modest compared to previous cycles, in line with government messaging.
  • The impact of easing on growth will also be weaker than markets expect, based on past cycles.

Craig BothamChina+

24 Jan 2022 Underlying Inflation Pressures are Already Fading in Japan

  • Japanese headline inflation picked up in December, but core measures lost momentum.
  • Early Korean trade data point to a weak start to 2022 for global trade, thanks in part to Omicron.
  • External demand should rebound swiftly, but the bigger risk is disruption to Chinese production.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20.01.22 - Japanese exports slow and Chinese rates fall

External demand began to perk up in late Q4, if you look through the base effects

Bank lending rates follow the MLF down

Craig BothamChina+

19 Jan 2022 Inflation Risks on the Rise in Japan, but Not Enough to Change Policy

  • The biggest change from the latest BoJ meeting was a reappraisal of the inflation outlook.
  • Risks to inflation are now seen as balanced, rather than to the downside, the first change since 2014.
  • Still, there will be no change in key policy settings for the next two years, with the target not in sight.

Craig BothamChina+

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