Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Loan Prime Rate

12 Jan 2023 China+ Monitor Plunging New Credit Precedes Likely Revival from Early 2023

  • New aggregate financing plummeted in December as China was buffeted by gigantic Covid waves...
  • ...But big cities appear to be past the worst, and many other regions are following close behind...
  • We expect a marked rebirth of credit demand post-Chinese New Year, building in Q2 onwards.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

21 Dec 2022 China+ Monitor BoJ Governor Kuroda Insists the YCC Tweak is not a Rate Hike

  • The BoJ widened the 10-year yield trading band yesterday, taking markets completely by surprise...
  • ...The official rationale is to alleviate the side-effects of yield curve control on the bond market...
  • ...But we see it as providing the BoJ with more flexibility on timing policy tightening, bolstering the yen.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PM Note: Japan BoJ Decision December

  • In one line: the BoJ Tweaks Trading Range on 10-Year Yields

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PM Note: Korea BoK Policy Rate November

  • The BoK hikes by only 25 basis points, balancing worries about growth and inflation

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24 NOVEMBER 2022: The BoK hikes by only 25 basis points

The BoK hikes by only 25 basis points, balancing worries about growth and inflation

Duncan WrigleyChina+

22 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Korean Exports Indicate Global Economy is in Poor Shape

  • Korean 20-day exports fell at a faster rate in November, in a further weakening of global demand.
  • Exports shrank to most major markets, with a dramatic decline in shipments to China.
  • China’s one-year loan prime rate was unchanged, as the PBoC relied on targeted liquidity measures.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

31 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor The BoJ is not for Turning, Despite Rising Inflation

  • The BoJ acknowledges higher CPI inflation for the
    rest of 2022...
  • ...But continues to forecast a drop in the core rate to below the 2% target in late 2023.
  • Nothing in the Tokyo CPI data will make the BoJ change its assessment.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

21 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Exports' Uptick will Falter over Winter

  • Japanese exports have been almost flat in dollar terms, despite headline growth in yen terms.
  • Rapid import growth and a large trade deficit contin- ue to put pressure on the yen.
  • China’s benchmark lending rate was unchanged, as policymakers focus on the Party Congress.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

18 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Xi's Speech at Congress Signals Policy Continuity

  • Xi's Congressional opening speech signalled no immediate shift from current policy settings.
  • We see zero-Covid policy continuing until at least mid-2023, if not later.
  • The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged, in implicit acknowledgement of China's liquidity trap.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

23 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor FX Intervention Begins, as the BoJ Feigns Innocence

  • Japan has embarked on direct currency intervention in support of the yen for the first time since 1998.
  • The main goal of this intervention is to slow the pace of depreciation, rather than draw a line in the sand.
  • Monetary policy will be kept at its current easy settings, undermining any attempt to defend a level.

Craig BothamChina+

PM Datanote: Governor Q&A, Japan, September

In one line: A long pause for monetary policy, but thinking on the yen is shifting

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 SEPTEMBER 2022: Japanese inflation hits an eight-year high

Still no change expected from the BoJ, despite another jump in inflation

Lending rates left on hold in China

Craig BothamChina+

5 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor China's Liquidity Trap is Creating All Sorts of Problems for the PBoC

  • The renminbi is weakening once again, in the face of dollar strength, but that’s not the full story.
  • The currency’s ability to defy gravity is fading, and this reflects the growing impotence of the PBoC.
  • The liquidity trap is closing tighter, creating an asymmetric profile of outcomes for monetary policy.

Craig BothamChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence