Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

June

14 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Stimulus Efforts are Visible, but China's Liquidity Trap Still Binds

  • Chinese credit growth slowed in August, even as liquidity continued to pile up.
  • Private sector demand for credit is still weak, leaving the government to drive borrowing and activity.
  • Property bailout funds propped up credit demand in August, but this effect will fade soon.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor From Fireworks in June to a Damp Squib in July for Chinese Growth

Chinese activity has slowed sooner than expected; the reopening rebound has failed to gain traction.

Supply-side stimulus measures are the wrong prescription for an economy lacking demand.

The PBoC delivered surprise easing yesterday, but it looks half-hearted, and will achieve little.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Reality Reasserts Itself in China, as the Reopening Rebound Fades

China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.

Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...

...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Change from Policymakers in Japan or China on the Horizon

Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.

Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.

China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.

Craig BothamChina+

28 July 2022 China+ Monitor Chinese Industry Returns to Profitability, but Not for Long

Chinese industrial profits bounced in June, linked to reopening and policy support.

The private sector, however, is still struggling, and the reopening boost is already fading.

We expect profits to fall again, as soon as July, with a downtrend set to last into 2023.

Craig BothamChina+

25 July 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Growth Flags Again, Thanks to Resurgent Covid Cases

Japan had been recovering reasonably well from its Omicron wave, but a new outbreak now looms.

Growth is already under pressure, even before official restrictions are rolled out.

Inflation looks manageable, especially with demand pressures now waning.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22 JULY 2022: Japan's economy slows in July

Japanese inflation is still a cost push story

Manufacturing stumbles...

...Services take a dive

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21 JULY 2022: A temporary reprieve for trade data

A more downbeat BoJ stays on hold

A welcome upside surprise for Japanese trade

Korean 20-day trade recovers, but the trend is still slowing

Craig BothamChina+

21 July 2022 China+ Monitor Monetary Policy Can't Save China, as Borrowers Go on Strike

China’s loan prime rates were left unchanged on Wednesday, continuing the PBoC’s passive streak.

Monetary easing would have little effect at the moment, with loan demand falling.

Credit is increasingly being used to plug balance sheets, rather than support productive activity.

Craig BothamChina+

20 July 2022 China Covid Cases Climb, Putting the Economic Recovery at Risk

Little over a month after reopening, China’s economy is again threatened by rising Covid cases.

Restrictions are tightening in response to flare-ups across China, and are already hitting activity.

Slow progress with vaccinations means zero-Covid seems likely to persist into 2024.

Craig BothamChina+

18 July 2022 A False Dawn in June Data, as China's Economy Shrinks in Q2

Official data came closer to the truth than expected, showing a very weak Q2 for Chinese GDP.

June activity data showed a stronger bounce than anticipated, but this seems unsustainable.

Stimulus remains unequal to the task of reviving growth, and the target now looks doomed.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 JULY 2022: Official GDP - somewhat surprisingly - confirms a terrible Q2 for China

More of a slowdown for GDP than expected

A strong month for manufacturing, but momentum is fading

Subsidies pulled forward retail sales growth

Property continues to weigh on fixed asset investment

The reopening bounce for real estate proved underwhelming

Craig BothamChina+

PM Datanote: Trade, China, June

In one line: Another record trade surplus as reopening remains a one-sided affair

Craig BothamChina+

11 July 2022 China is Headed for a Balance Sheet Recession in Q2

We think China entered a balance sheet recession in Q2, and policy needs recalibrating to fix it.

The combination of the property downturn, tech crackdown, and zero-Covid, have hit asset values.

Balance sheet repair takes time, and breaks monetary transmission; fiscal support is needed.

Craig BothamChina+

7 July 2022 Chinese Inflation will Climb, but the PBoC Won't React

Chinese CPI inflation is set to rise until Q4, but it’s still a very different story to the West.

Inflation is unlikely to spend any time above target, and will retreat in 2023, with PPI entering deflation.

The PBoC will not need to tighten policy, but other constraints prevent aggressive easing.

Craig BothamChina+

4 July 2022 Global Trade is Slowing, Creating Another Headwind for China

The Caixin manufacturing PMI confirmed a healthy rebound for China in June.

Domestic demand, however, remains weak, and data from Korea suggest external demand is fading.

Japanese inflation surprised to the downside in June, reinforcing the BoJ’s dovish position.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 01 JULY 2022: China's back, but global trade is slowing

Inflation retreats unexpectedly in Japan

Korea points to slowing global trade

Korean manufacturing wobbles

Chinese manufacturing recovery confirmed

Craig BothamChina+

1 July 2022 A Proper Reopening Bounce for China in June

Chinese activity continued its reopening recovery in June, particularly outside manufacturing.

The surveys point to month-on-month growth, but not enough to save GDP from a quarterly decline.

More stimulus is needed to sustain this bounce, with households and SMEs still under pressure.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 30 JUNE 2022: A surprise bounce for non-manufacturing

The manufacturing recovery continues

But the real story is the surge in non-manufacturing

Craig BothamChina+

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