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China’s property market is still in a tailspin, with no relief visible on the immediate horizon.
The central government still refuses to get involved, and local government resources are inadequate.
Japanese CPI inflation rose again in July, but the BoJ will remain on hold through 2023.
In one line: Still the wrong kind of inflation for the BoJ
Japan’s trade deficit widened again in July, thanks to a surging import bill.
Energy costs are a big part of the problem, but recent yen weakness is more curse than blessing.
Exports are yet to benefit from the currency’s fall, and key imports are insensitive to price changes.
Japanese exports slow less than expected
Chinese activity has slowed sooner than expected; the reopening rebound has failed to gain traction.
Supply-side stimulus measures are the wrong prescription for an economy lacking demand.
The PBoC delivered surprise easing yesterday, but it looks half-hearted, and will achieve little.
Chinese money growth was better than expected in July, but credit growth disappointed.
Private sector loan demand looks ever weaker, suggesting a limit to gains from monetary easing.
The PBoC is preparing to pare back, with financial stability risks the most likely consideration.
Chinese CPI inflation has reached a two-year high, but is still below target, and set to cool.
PPI inflation continues to fall on base effects and lower energy and industrial commodity prices.
China will be a source of disinflation, and even deflation, over the next twelve months.
Consumer price inflation climbs on food pressures alone
Commodity price falls speed up PPI disinflation
Chinese trade continues to surprise to the upside
China's FX reserves recover slightly, but have further to fall
China reported another record trade surplus in July, thanks to surprisingly strong export growth...
...but exports are starting to slow, at the margin, and still face structural headwinds this year.
Generous government subsidies cannot hold back the tide indefinitely, and risk political blowback.
Supply chains are recovering, with delivery times and shipping costs improving in East Asia.
Lower raw material costs are reducing cost-push inflation, and should feed through to output prices.
The main supply-side risks now are political, as China retaliates for Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwanese trip.
A surprise bounce for the Caixin Services PMI
The manufacturing boost from reopening is over
Services are flagging again as restrictions tighten
Korean manufacturing also points to a receding tide
Don't be deceived by Korea's export bounce
China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.
Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...
...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.
Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.
Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.
China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.
Tokyo CPI bounces back
Chinese industrial profits bounced in June, linked to reopening and policy support.
The private sector, however, is still struggling, and the reopening boost is already fading.
We expect profits to fall again, as soon as July, with a downtrend set to last into 2023.
China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence