Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

July

19 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Better Late than Never for China's Reopening Bounce

  • Chinese economic data for August surprised to the upside, compensating for a poor July.
  • Some of the strength is genuine, thanks to stimulus efforts, but base effects played a role.
  • Most of the tailwinds are unlikely to last more than a month, so we expect slower growth in September.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor A Miss for Chinese Inflation, as a Lukewarm Economy Cools Further

  • Inflation is falling faster than expected in China, a sign that demand is flatlining.
  • Food is the only source of inflationary pressure remaining, and faces government intervention.
  • Talk of monetary policy space, however, sadly is meaningless in a liquidity trap.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Signs of a Revival for Chinese Real Estate

China’s property market is still in a tailspin, with no relief visible on the immediate horizon. 

The central government still refuses to get involved, and local government resources are inadequate. 

Japanese CPI inflation rose again in July, but the BoJ will remain on hold through 2023. 

Craig BothamChina+

18 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Japan Faces a Growing Trade Deficit, Despite the Weaker Yen

Japan’s trade deficit widened again in July, thanks to a surging import bill.

Energy costs are a big part of the problem, but recent yen weakness is more curse than blessing.

Exports are yet to benefit from the currency’s fall, and key imports are insensitive to price changes.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor From Fireworks in June to a Damp Squib in July for Chinese Growth

Chinese activity has slowed sooner than expected; the reopening rebound has failed to gain traction.

Supply-side stimulus measures are the wrong prescription for an economy lacking demand.

The PBoC delivered surprise easing yesterday, but it looks half-hearted, and will achieve little.

Craig BothamChina+

15 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Weak Credit Growth Highlights a Structural Problem for China

Chinese money growth was better than expected in July, but credit growth disappointed.

Private sector loan demand looks ever weaker, suggesting a limit to gains from monetary easing.

The PBoC is preparing to pare back, with financial stability risks the most likely consideration.

Craig BothamChina+

11 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Food Alone Pushes Inflation Higher, and Disinflation Awaits for China

Chinese CPI inflation has reached a two-year high, but is still below target, and set to cool.

PPI inflation continues to fall on base effects and lower energy and industrial commodity prices.

China will be a source of disinflation, and even deflation, over the next twelve months.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 10 AUGUST 2022: Disinflation lies ahead for China

Consumer price inflation climbs on food pressures alone

Commodity price falls speed up PPI disinflation

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 08 AUGUST 2022: An upside surprise, but Chinese exports are losing momentum at last

Chinese trade continues to surprise to the upside

China's FX reserves recover slightly, but have further to fall

Craig BothamChina+

9 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Subsidies Shore up Chinese Exports, but Pressure is Building

China reported another record trade surplus in July, thanks to surprisingly strong export growth...

...but exports are starting to slow, at the margin, and still face structural headwinds this year.

Generous government subsidies cannot hold back the tide indefinitely, and risk political blowback.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Supply-Side Stresses are Fading, Bringing Hope of Disinflation

Supply chains are recovering, with delivery times and shipping costs improving in East Asia.

Lower raw material costs are reducing cost-push  inflation, and should feed through to output prices.

The main supply-side risks now are political, as China retaliates for Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwanese trip.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 01 AUGUST 2022: The boost from China's reopening is over

The manufacturing boost from reopening is over

Services are flagging again as restrictions tighten

Korean manufacturing also points to a receding tide

Don't be deceived by Korea's export bounce

Craig BothamChina+

2 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Reality Reasserts Itself in China, as the Reopening Rebound Fades

China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.

Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...

...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Change from Policymakers in Japan or China on the Horizon

Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.

Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.

China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.

Craig BothamChina+

28 July 2022 China+ Monitor Chinese Industry Returns to Profitability, but Not for Long

Chinese industrial profits bounced in June, linked to reopening and policy support.

The private sector, however, is still struggling, and the reopening boost is already fading.

We expect profits to fall again, as soon as July, with a downtrend set to last into 2023.

Craig BothamChina+

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence