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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

July

3 Sept 2021 The Pitfalls and Positives for China in Korea's August Trade Numbers

  • Korean exports were solid in August, including those to China, despite the latter's Delta woes.
  • But Chinese demand still is underperforming, and activity last month likely flattered by front-loading.
  • More broadly, at least, Korea's trade data point to a more solid end to 2021 for global trade.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

19 Aug 2021 China Needs Much More than the Mixed Trade Signals from NE Asia

  • The latest data from developed Asia show that trade is unlikely to rescue China from its domestic woes.
  • The slowdown in Japanese export growth is July isn't all down to base effects; momentum is waning.
  • Korea's early data look grim on the surface, but the first ten days of August tend to be a lull.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 Aug 2021 PBoC Easing Remains Unlikely, Despite July's Soft Money Data

Both M1 and M2 growth missed expectations in July, but the former arguably is due a turnaround.

Slowing household demand for credit isn't exactly concerning, as they are still sitting on piles of cash.

Japanese machine tool orders remain solid, indicating that the recovery in global IP is on track.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 Aug 2021 PBoC Tightening Would be Imminent if Not for the Delta Variant

PPI inflation is proving stubborn, while CPI inflation is just getting started.

Services inflation continues to rise, despite the broadening Delta scare.

Trade figures highlight the "mid-cycle" falter, as exports soften but imports stumble too.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, July

In one line: A narrow increase in PPI inflation 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 Aug 2021 The Trade Surplus is Likely to Remain Under Pressure

July exports likely weakened, while imports will be boosted by the tail end of commodities inflation.

PPI inflation may not yet have peaked; headline CPI inflation is just about food prices.

M1 growth should now be troughing, but an RRR cut is looking more likely nonetheless.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

3 Aug 2021 China's Manufacturing Underperformance Continues

China's weak July PMIs play into a wider story of underperformance in trade and manufacturing.

The official and Caixin reports are at odds on prices, but we reckon PPI inflation ticked higher in July.

The non-manufacturing gauge suggests that no fis- cal rescue has been forthcoming.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Official and Caixin PMIs, July, China

In one line: Broad weakness for manufacturing; PPI inflation still hot

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

29 July 2021 The PMIs Should Offer Some Signs of Stabilisation this Month

Q2 CPI inflation exceeded the MPC's one-quarter ahead forecast by the most for 13 years...

...But only two members have implied they will vote to end QE; pushback from the doves has been strong.

Inflation expectations have remained well-anchored; Team Transitory probably is right.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: BoJ Press Conference, July 2021

In one line: Mr. Kuroda is playing the baby steps card; but it’s baby steps toward something significant

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: BoJ Decision, July 2021

In one line: Details of the new green fund-provisioning scheme leaves scope for it to become a major operation.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: PBoC MLF Injection; BoK Decision, July 2021

In one line: The PBoC’s smaller MLF injection confirms that the RRR cut was not an easing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 July 2021 The RRR Cut was About Managing Interbank Liquidity

The PBoC followed through with a Reserve Requirement Ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points on Friday, hot on the heels of a strong hint to do so from the State Council meeting earlier in the week.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

2 July 2021 Chinese Manufacturing is Underperforming; Variants or Reversal

Data in the last few months have suggested that China's foreign trade and manufacturing sector is underperforming compared with Korea's. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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