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Zero-Covid caught up with Chinese exports in April, as inventories were exhausted...
...But demand played a role too, with higher energy prices dragging down trade with Japan and Europe.
The fundamental backdrop for the renminbi is deteriorating, highlighted by plunging FX reserves.
An entirely expected spike in inflation
The tightest zero-Covid policies since the Wuhan outbreak have crushed Chinese economic activity.
Spillovers to global trade are already apparent, and will get worse before they get better.
Zero-Covid is not going away; the stakes are too high, so be ready for disruption throughout 2022.
China weighs on Korean export growth...
…but domestic demand provides an offset in the PMI
Japanese manufacturing stumbles on weaker new orders and employment
In one line: Cracks appear in the BoJ’s positive yen view, despite the renewed commitment to dovish policy
The BoJ doubles down on yield curve control, defying market speculation
The BoJ will be unmoved, despite rising inflation
Mixed messages from the PMIs, but costs are rising
China's currency is finally succumbing to pressure from multiple fronts, and has further to fall.
The renminbi poses a key constraint to PBoC policy, which Beijing will ultimately override.
April export data from Korea show that China's bat- tle with Covid will weigh heavily on global trade.
Lockdowns and shuttered factories in China appear to be the culprit behind slowing Japanese exports.
Further weakness seems inevitable as Chinese policy tightens, and regional supply chains collapse.
Underperforming exports again raise questions about the benefits of a weaker yen.
Japanese exports slow further, despite yen weakness
Banks resist the PBoC’s call to arms
China's economy beat expectations in Q1, but is still falling short of the 2022 growth target.
The GDP data probably overstate economic growth, but either way things will get worse in Q2.
The battle with Covid is proving extremely costly; it will necessitate more stimulus, and soon.
A dilemma for policymakers
Factory closures weighed on industrial production
Infrastructure supported sagging FAI, but not for much longer
The biggest Covid casualty will continue to bleed out
We are downgrading our outlook for Chinese growth, as zero-Covid policies continue to tighten.
Data quality is more questionable than ever, though February was softer than it looked.
Policy support will eventually arrive, but little of substance has materialised, so far.
The service sector bounces back
Chinese manufacturing: ouch
Japan’s exports hit by China, but the domestic engine starts to revive
Korean data suggests a gloomy outlook for global trade, with one or two flickers of light
Output improves, but the outlook dims
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