10 May Trade Disruption Builds for China, as Restrictions Tighten

Zero-Covid caught up with Chinese exports in April, as inventories were exhausted...

...But demand played a role too, with higher energy prices dragging down trade with Japan and Europe.

The fundamental backdrop for the renminbi is deteriorating, highlighted by plunging FX reserves.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 06 MAY 2022: The BoJ hits its inflation target, but won't change policy

An entirely expected spike in inflation

Craig BothamChina+

3 May 2022 Zero-Covid, Sub-Zero Growth, China's Economy Cratered in April

The tightest zero-Covid policies since the Wuhan outbreak have crushed Chinese economic activity.

Spillovers to global trade are already apparent, and will get worse before they get better.

Zero-Covid is not going away; the stakes are too high, so be ready for disruption throughout 2022.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 02 MAY 2022: China weighs on regional activity

China weighs on Korean export growth...

…but domestic demand provides an offset in the PMI

Japanese manufacturing stumbles on weaker new orders and employment

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: BoJ Press Conference, Japan, April

In one line: Cracks appear in the BoJ’s positive yen view, despite the renewed commitment to dovish policy

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 28 APR 2022: JPY takes a tumble as the BoJ holds the line

The BoJ doubles down on yield curve control, defying market speculation

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22 APR 2022: Still the wrong kind of inflation for the BoJ

The BoJ will be unmoved, despite rising inflation

Mixed messages from the PMIs, but costs are rising

Craig BothamChina+

22 Apr 2022 The PBoC Buckles Up for the Renminbi's Wild Ride

China's currency is finally succumbing to pressure from multiple fronts, and has further to fall.

The renminbi poses a key constraint to PBoC policy, which Beijing will ultimately override.

April export data from Korea show that China's bat- tle with Covid will weigh heavily on global trade.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Apr 2022 China Drags on Exports, Adding to Japan's Problems as the Yen Drops

Lockdowns and shuttered factories in China appear to be the culprit behind slowing Japanese exports.

Further weakness seems inevitable as Chinese policy tightens, and regional supply chains collapse.

Underperforming exports again raise questions about the benefits of a weaker yen.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 APR 2022: Japanese exports slow, Chinese rates go unchanged

Japanese exports slow further, despite yen weakness

Banks resist the PBoC’s call to arms

Craig BothamChina+

19 Apr 2022 Caught on the Horns of a Dilemma, with Chinese Characteristics

China's economy beat expectations in Q1, but is still falling short of the 2022 growth target.

The GDP data probably overstate economic growth, but either way things will get worse in Q2.

The battle with Covid is proving extremely costly; it will necessitate more stimulus, and soon.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18 APR 2022: Slightly better than expected, but worse to come for China

A dilemma for policymakers

Factory closures weighed on industrial production

Infrastructure supported sagging FAI, but not for much longer

The biggest Covid casualty will continue to bleed out

Craig BothamChina+

11 Apr 2022 Omicron Should Weigh Heavily on Chinese Q1 GDP, in Theory

We are downgrading our outlook for Chinese growth, as zero-Covid policies continue to tighten. 

Data quality is more questionable than ever, though February was softer than it looked. 

Policy support will eventually arrive, but little of substance has materialised, so far. 

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 05 APR 2022: Japanese demand starts to recover in Omicron's wake

The service sector bounces back

Craig BothamChina+

4 Apr 2022 Whether China Sneezes, or Locks Down, Asia Catches a Cold

• China's lockdowns and other restrictions weighed on regional activity in March, particularly exports.
• Factory closures in China have tightened some bottlenecks, but others may have loosened.
• The war in Ukraine has added to cost pressures, and worse is to come on both fronts.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 01 APR 2022: China's Omicron wave weighs on regional trade

Chinese manufacturing: ouch

Japan’s exports hit by China, but the domestic engine starts to revive

Korean data suggests a gloomy outlook for global trade, with one or two flickers of light

Craig BothamChina+

28 Mar 2022 More of the Wrong Sort of Inflation for the BoJ, as the Yen Plummets

• Energy and food push inflation higher, and Japan is set to beat its target next month...
• ...but the BoJ won't be moved, as demand-pull inflation remains as elusive as ever.
• Yen weakness is the biggest challenge to the BoJ's position, and likely will force a shift by H2.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24.03.2022: A temporary improvement for Japanese manufacturing

Output improves, but the outlook dims

Craig BothamChina+

22 Mar 2022 Korean Exports Falter as Demand and Supply Issues Bite

• Preliminary trade data from Korea point to a loss of momentum for global trade in March.
• War and Covid have tightened some bottlenecks, but demand is also under pressure from oil prices.
• The PBoC again opted not to ramp up monetary easing, despite recent messaging from Beijing.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Mar 2022 The BoJ Splits from the Pack, as Energy Costs Climb

• Japan is not entirely immune to global inflation shocks; CPI is rising as energy costs surge.
• The BoJ, however, has the luxury of choosing the sort of inflation it wants, and will not be hiking.
• Don't get too excited by rumours of a turnaround in Chinese policy; nothing much has changed.

Craig BothamChina+