Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a full list of our China Publications.

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24 Dec 2020 Is China Santa or the Grinch in the Global Inflation Outlook

China plays a pivotal role in the global inflation outlook.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)23rd Dec 2020 19:10China+

29 Oct 2020 Winter is Coming... China's Industry is Set for a Cold Spell in Q4

September likely was as good as it will get for Chinese factories this year.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)28th Oct 2020 14:10China+

27 Oct 2020 Japan is Trying to "Live with Covid", but Spending is Hitting a Ceiling

Japan and Korea dealt with their second waves of Covid-19 in the third quarter in completely different ways.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)26th Oct 2020 20:10China+

16 Oct 2020 China will Stage Only a Narrow Escape from PPI Deflation in Q2

The moderation in PPI deflation in China stalled in December, underscoring the difficulty in returning to the black with slack persisting in the economy.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)15th Oct 2020 20:10China+

24 Sept 2020 PMIs Confirm Japan's Q3 Bounce, but Momentum will Fade in Q4

Japan's economic recovery got back on track this month--just--according to yesterday's flash PMI numbers.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)23rd Sep 2020 20:10China+

1 Sep 2020 Chinese Manufacturing is Peaking, While Services are Still Catching-up

The momentum in Chinese manufacturing waned in August, with the official manufacturing PMI slipping marginally to 51.0, from 51.1 in July,

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)31st Aug 2020 20:10China+

22 July 2020 Don't Fret About the New Weakness in Korea's Partial Trade Data

Korea's fledgling export recovery seemingly hit a roadblock this month.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)21st Jul 2020 20:10China+

17 July 2020 China's Q2 Bounce was Solid, but Not That Good, Old Habits Die Hard

China's GDP report for the second quarter sprung an upside surprise, with the economy growing by 3.2% year-over-year--on paper--marking a sharp reversal from the 6.8%...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)16th Jul 2020 20:10China+

9 July 2020 China's Q2 GDP Bounce was Solid, but Expect a Print Shy of Consensus

China's GDP report for the second quarter is due a week from today, and the prevailing wisdom is that the bounce-back was strong enough for headline growth to return to the...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)8th Jul 2020 20:10China+

1 July 2020 It's Official... Risks of Covid Clusters Don't Jeopardise China's Recovery

China's economy looks to have shrugged off the supposed "second wave" of Covid-19, sparked by a cluster in Beijing's largest wholesale market for fruit and veg,...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)30th Jun 2020 20:10China+

16 June 2020 China's Sturdy Q2 Rebound Spells GDP Upgrade, but at Q3's Expense

China's post-lockdown recovery broadly has surprised this quarter, particularly in the industrial sector.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)15th Jun 2020 20:10China+

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 Apr 2020

Net trade and inventories cushion Korea's historic consumption collapse in Q1. Nasty Japan manufacturing readings, but we can extrapolate light at the end of the tunnel. A...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)23rd Apr 2020 08:43China+

2 Apr 2020 Tankan Implies a Severe Tightening of Japan's Financial Conditions

The Q1 Tankan survey headlines were close to our expectations, chiming with our call for year-over-year contraction in Japanese GDP of at least 2%, after the 0.7% decline in Q4.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)1st Apr 2020 20:10China+

4 Mar 2020 Revisions Aside, India's Q4 GDP isn't Worrying, nor is the Virus Risk

India's GDP report for the fourth quarter surprised to the upside, with the economy growing by 4.7% year-over-year, against the Bloomberg median forecast of 4.5%.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)3rd Mar 2020 19:10China+

21 Feb 2020 China Credit Numbers are not Bad, but Pre-date Covid-19

Once again, Chinese January data released so far suggest that the Phase One trade deal was the dominant factor dictating activity for the first two- thirds of the month, with the...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)20th Feb 2020 19:10China+

20 Feb 2020 What China's Doing about the Labour Market & Bankruptcy Threat

Wednesday's State Council meeting implies that the authorities are starting to take more serious coordinated fiscal measures to counter the virus threat to the labour market...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)19th Feb 2020 19:10China+

19 Feb 2020 India's Slowdown is Over, GDP Growth Likely Rebounded in Q4

India's industrial production data last week are the last set of key economic indicators for the fourth quarter, before next week's Q4 GDP report.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)18th Feb 2020 19:10China+

18 Feb 2020 Q4 was an Abrupt End to Japan's early 2019 Mirage

We've continuously warned that Japan's national accounts weren't sitting easily with the underlying signals from survey data, and monetary conditions, through last...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)17th Feb 2020 19:10China+

10 Dec 2019 Japan's Revised Q3 GDP Growth Reveals a bit More of the Tax Impact

Japan's GDP growth was revised up, to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.1% in the preliminary reading.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)9th Dec 2019 19:10China+

22 Nov 2019 China's Exit from PPI Deflation Next Year will be Short-Lived

The PBoC's quarterly monetary policy report seemed relatively sanguine on the question of PPI deflation, attributing it mainly to base effects--not entirely...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)21st Nov 2019 18:50China+

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