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Zero-Covid caught up with Chinese exports in April, as inventories were exhausted...
...But demand played a role too, with higher energy prices dragging down trade with Japan and Europe.
The fundamental backdrop for the renminbi is deteriorating, highlighted by plunging FX reserves.
Zero-Covid supports China’s trade balance for a little longer
The tightest zero-Covid policies since the Wuhan outbreak have crushed Chinese economic activity.
Spillovers to global trade are already apparent, and will get worse before they get better.
Zero-Covid is not going away; the stakes are too high, so be ready for disruption throughout 2022.
China weighs on Korean export growth...
…but domestic demand provides an offset in the PMI
Japanese manufacturing stumbles on weaker new orders and employment
Japanese inflation is still rising, and is all but guaranteed to break through its target in April...
...But the BoJ has already indicated it has no intention of changing tack; rates won't rise this year.
Policymakers are flirting with the idea of currency intervention, but Kuroda won't take the lead.
China's currency is finally succumbing to pressure from multiple fronts, and has further to fall.
The renminbi poses a key constraint to PBoC policy, which Beijing will ultimately override.
April export data from Korea show that China's bat- tle with Covid will weigh heavily on global trade.
The U.S. emerges as the main engine of growth once more
Lockdowns and shuttered factories in China appear to be the culprit behind slowing Japanese exports.
Further weakness seems inevitable as Chinese policy tightens, and regional supply chains collapse.
Underperforming exports again raise questions about the benefits of a weaker yen.
Japanese exports slow further, despite yen weakness
Banks resist the PBoC’s call to arms
China's economy beat expectations in Q1, but is still falling short of the 2022 growth target.
The GDP data probably overstate economic growth, but either way things will get worse in Q2.
The battle with Covid is proving extremely costly; it will necessitate more stimulus, and soon.
China's trade surplus enjoyed a final lift in March, as import demand collapsed, and exports rose...
...But look through the seasonal distortions, and exports were weaker than they appeared.
Beijing has promised to offset some of the pain from zero-Covid, but stimulus looks light, to us.
Trade flows were weaker than they looked in March
We are downgrading our outlook for Chinese growth, as zero-Covid policies continue to tighten.
Data quality is more questionable than ever, though February was softer than it looked.
Policy support will eventually arrive, but little of substance has materialised, so far.
China's FX reserves fell again in March, amidst reports of large portfolio outflows, thanks to Putin.
One by one, the key supports for the renminbi are being chipped away, and Q2 will be turbulent...
...but H2 will see a downward trend consolidate, as multiple headwinds force the RMB to submit.
Chinese manufacturing: ouch
Japan’s exports hit by China, but the domestic engine starts to revive
Korean data suggests a gloomy outlook for global trade, with one or two flickers of light
A hostile environment for global trade
No big change yet from the PBoC
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