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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Demographics Inflation Expectations

PANTHEON CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18.10.21

  • Evergrande and energy take a bite out of GDP growth
  • The energy crunch is also visible in industrial production data
  • Broad based investment slowdown
  • Retail sales

Craig BothamChina+

18 Oct 2021 China's Cost Shock Creates Problems Everywhere

  • Surging factory gate prices have just begun to re- flect recent energy shocks.
  • The Chinese consumer may be shielded from the energy hit, but China's economy will still suffer.
  • Global spillovers seem likely, with further cost in- creases to come as winter looms.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 14.10.21

  • Energy shortages push PPI to fresh heights while food remains the dominant theme for CPI

    The immediate impact is felt by industry, but it will spread

Craig BothamChina+

13 Oct 2021 A Hawkish Hold, but Future Hikes Likely to be Interrupted

  • The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike.
  • Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth.
  • China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.

Craig BothamChina+

6 Oct 2021 Supply Chain Disruptions Add to Transitory Inflation Pressures

  • A shock return to positive territory for Tokyo CPI inflation...
  • ...Partly driven by the BoJ's usual suspects, but with a larger contribution from goods prices.
  • Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Oct 2021 I Don't Want that Much for Christmas (Luckily)

  • China's energy rationing is already hurting domes- tic economic activity...
  • ...But it may represent opportunities for exporters of energy intensive goods.
  • Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Sept 2021 Stand by for Some Weak August Activity Figures

  • Industrial production growth likely slowed sharply in August, despite strong trade figures.
  • FAI growth should soon rebound, but likely not in time for the August data.
  • We owe M1 a partial apology; our forecast is now coming back into line with its signal.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 Sept 2021 August Likely was the Peak in PPI Inflation, Expect Disinflation in 2022

  • PPI inflation surprised to the upside in August, reflecting stubborn commodity pressures...
  • ...The Ningbo-Zhoushan port closure likely was a factor, too, but disinflation is now on the horizon
  • Pork price deflation continues to pull down CPI inflation, but underlying pressures are still building.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9.9.21

  • Previous commodity price rises fed through in August;
  • Services inflation is holding up against Delta
  • Machine tool orders still positive at the margin

Peter BennettChina+

1 Sept 2021 The Services Collapse in August Highlights the Cost of "Zero Covid"

  • The Delta wave was smaller than the last outbreak, yet it caused more damage to the services sector...
  • ...Underscoring China's reluctance to ditch its Zero Covid stance; construction was the only bright spot.
  • The manufacturing PMI slipped only modestly in August, but forward-looking indicators stayed grim.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

23 Aug 2021 Four Catalysts for Escape from China's Mid-Cycle Weakness

  • We see four changes in the next few months that will put equities on a firmer footing.
  • Risks to bond yields are to the upside, thanks to the coming slew of local government issuance
  • Japan's CPI re-basing puts the country back in deflation, but it's not the Boj's fault

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 Aug 2021 PBoC Easing Remains Unlikely, Despite July's Soft Money Data

Both M1 and M2 growth missed expectations in July, but the former arguably is due a turnaround.

Slowing household demand for credit isn't exactly concerning, as they are still sitting on piles of cash.

Japanese machine tool orders remain solid, indicating that the recovery in global IP is on track.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 Aug 2021 PBoC Tightening Would be Imminent if Not for the Delta Variant

PPI inflation is proving stubborn, while CPI inflation is just getting started.

Services inflation continues to rise, despite the broadening Delta scare.

Trade figures highlight the "mid-cycle" falter, as exports soften but imports stumble too.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9.8.21

A narrow increase in PPI inflation 

CPI inflation pressure continues to build

Prices taking a toll on commodities demand?

FX reserves boosted by valuation effects

sogorski hannahChina+

6 Aug 2021 The Trade Surplus is Likely to Remain Under Pressure

July exports likely weakened, while imports will be boosted by the tail end of commodities inflation.

PPI inflation may not yet have peaked; headline CPI inflation is just about food prices.

M1 growth should now be troughing, but an RRR cut is looking more likely nonetheless.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

3 Aug 2021 China's Manufacturing Underperformance Continues

China's weak July PMIs play into a wider story of underperformance in trade and manufacturing.

The official and Caixin reports are at odds on prices, but we reckon PPI inflation ticked higher in July.

The non-manufacturing gauge suggests that no fis- cal rescue has been forthcoming.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

2 Aug 2021 Underlying Chinese Inflation is More Progressed than in DMs

China's PPI inflation is at or near its peak, and CPI inflation remains relatively tame...

... But underlying inflationary pressure is more ad- vanced in China, thanks to the early recovery.

More limited slack means services inflation is on a sustained uptrend.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

29 July 2021 The PMIs Should Offer Some Signs of Stabilisation this Month

Q2 CPI inflation exceeded the MPC's one-quarter ahead forecast by the most for 13 years...

...But only two members have implied they will vote to end QE; pushback from the doves has been strong.

Inflation expectations have remained well-anchored; Team Transitory probably is right.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

19 July 2021 BoJ Playing it Down, but Green Fund Provisioning is Significant

Governor Kuroda was managing expectations about the new green fund-provisioning scheme in the press conference. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

15 July 2021 Supporting Green Finance Could Become a Major BoJ Policy Plank

The BoJ's policy meeting on Friday is set to provide an outline of the fund-provisioning scheme, announced at its June meeting, to support green finance.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

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