Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Korean exports beat expectations in November, though we think the data overstate performance.
- Supply chains are still improving at the margins, even if U.S. ports remain congested.
- The Omicron variant is a risk to this recovery, but will not derail it entirely.
- Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
- The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
- Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.
- October was another strong month for Chinese industrial profits, propelled by coal...
- ...But coal prices have been slashed, and energy rates hiked, so we expect deceleration from here.
- China is doubling down on zero-Covid in the face of Omicron, which will prove costly.
- Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
- Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
- ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.
- Japan's October exports repeated the message of other regional trade data...
- ...Supply chains remain snarled, and bottlenecks are still narrow, and tight.
- We think November will prove to be a high-water mark, but tankers have a big turning circle.
- Japanese growth fell sharply in Q3, as both consumption and capex declined.
- A near-term rebound is on the cards, as temporary headwinds fade.
- Beyond Q4, however, growth needs policy support merely to return to, let alone surpass, its trend.
- China's October activity data were better than ex- pected, but chiefly reflecting a low bar.
- Industrial production growth staved off collapse, but is still near multi-decade lows.
- The property sector is a chronic, and building, headwind for the economy.
- China's latest Covid outbreak now risks locking down another port...
- ...and logistics networks are already strained, thanks to assorted energy shortages.
- The Sixth Plenum elevated Xi, but was light on policy announcements.
- China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
- We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
- Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.
- Food and energy prices drove Chinese consumer price inflation sharply higher in October.
- Partial energy liberalisation, coupled with soaring coal prices, led to record PPI inflation.
- We think both spikes will be transitory, and will not necessitate a monetary policy response.
- China's latest trade data were better than expected, setting up a potential upside surprise for Q4.
- Energy imports will weigh more heavily on the trade balance, but external demand appears robust.
- Next year will be more challenging, given base effects and softening demand.
- The turmoil now engulfing Kaisa highlights how opaque property risks remain...
- ...Hidden liabilities helped the firm pass the risk tests set by Beijing...
- ...And likely will imperil other property developers, whom the receding tide will gradually expose.
- Chinese vegetable prices have jumped recently, thanks to bad weather and supply disruptions.
- Food is a substantial part of the Chinese CPI bas- ket, and an inflation spike is on its way.
- A mix of policy and base effects should mean, how- ever, that the spike will be short-lived.
- The worsening energy crunch weighed heavily on Chinese manufacturing in October.
- Inflationary pressures are building, thanks to energy price liberalisation.
- Shortages of natural gas and fuel remain a risk to production and supply chains.
- Profits surprisingly accelerated in September, de- spite widespread disruption...
- ...Digging deeper, profits look relatively anaemic, with the improvement driven by transitory factors.
- Margin squeezes are persisting, and profits should come back to reality in October.
- A new property tax pilot reform provides a long run- way to a long-awaited policy.
- The signalling effect alone will weigh further on property prices and sales, despite a five-year trial.
- Chinese property's glory days are well and truly finished.
- The Chinese authorities continue to battle the underlying causes of the energy crisis.
- A combination of tariff hikes and coal price reductions has brought an end to shortages, for now...
- ... but heading into the winter, heating needs will jump, renewing pressure on generators.
- Surging factory gate prices have just begun to re- flect recent energy shocks.
- The Chinese consumer may be shielded from the energy hit, but China's economy will still suffer.
- Global spillovers seem likely, with further cost in- creases to come as winter looms.
- Expectations for a Chinese export slowdown in September were confounded...
- ...But this was due chiefly to one-off factors, and imports showed the impact of China's crises.
- Exports will falter next month, and supply chains will feel the added pressure.
- The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike.
- Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth.
- China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.