PM Data Note: BoJ Policy Decision, Japan, March

• The BoJ Keeps Easy Policy Settings on Hold at Governor Kuroda's Last Meeting

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 10 MARCH 2023: The BoJ Keeps Easy Policy Settings on Hold

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PM Note: Japan BoJ Policy Decision January

• In one line: The BoJ Maintains Policy Settings and Adds New Tool

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18 JANUARY 2023: The BoJ Keeps Policy Settings and Adds Tool

The BoJ Maintains Policy Settings and Adds New Tool

Duncan WrigleyChina+

21 Dec 2022 China+ Monitor BoJ Governor Kuroda Insists the YCC Tweak is not a Rate Hike

• The BoJ widened the 10-year yield trading band yesterday, taking markets completely by surprise...
• ...The official rationale is to alleviate the side-effects of yield curve control on the bond market...
• ...But we see it as providing the BoJ with more flexibility on timing policy tightening, bolstering the yen.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PM Note: Japan BoJ Decision December

• In one line: the BoJ Tweaks Trading Range on 10-Year Yields

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 DECEMBER 2022: the BoJ Tweaks 10-Year Yield Cap

the BoJ Tweaks Trading Range on 10-Year Yields

Duncan WrigleyChina+

19 Dec 2022 China+ Monitor Japan's Services PMI Brightens, While Manufacturing is Dim

• The uptick in Japan’s services PMI in December
  shows the impact of tourism support...
• ...But the gloomy manufacturing index will persuade the BoJ to keep monetary policy settings loose.
• China’s CEWC called for prioritising consumption and supporting “housing improvement” in 2023.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

28 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Tokyo Inflation Speeds up on Food Price Hikes

Tokyo headline CPI accelerated further in November, on the back of food price rises... 

...But the BoJ is likely to view domestic demand as still weak, and so leave monetary policy unchanged. 

China’s RRR cut is mainly about funding fiscal policy to cushion growth, as Covid cases surge again. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

21 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Inflation is Picking up on Higher Import Costs

• Japanese headline CPI rose sharply in October, on the back of food price hikes...
• ...But the BoJ is likely to keep monetary policy loose, expecting core inflation to wane in fiscal year 2023.
• The PBoC warned about future inflationary risk in China, as bond markets responded to policy shifts.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

31 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor The BoJ is not for Turning, Despite Rising Inflation

• The BoJ acknowledges higher CPI inflation for the
  rest of 2022...
• ...But continues to forecast a drop in the core rate to below the 2% target in late 2023.
• Nothing in the Tokyo CPI data will make the BoJ change its assessment.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

24 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Headline Inflation Set to Rise as Food Prices Heat up

• Japan’s headline CPI is expected to resume rising in October, thanks to food price increases...
• ...But the BOJ will stick to easy monetary policy, given the lacklustre core inflation and wage outlook.
• Korean 20-day exports for October indicated still-worsening global demand. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

27 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor An Unsustainable Rebound for Japanese Growth in September

• Japan learns to live with Covid, but must still contend with slower global growth, and bad weather.
• The renminbi is tumbling, along with every other currency, but capital flight risks compel PBoC action.
• Rumours of a coup in China are based on a rogue Twitter account, and should be discounted.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor FX Intervention Begins, as the BoJ Feigns Innocence

• Japan has embarked on direct currency intervention in support of the yen for the first time since 1998.
• The main goal of this intervention is to slow the pace of depreciation, rather than draw a line in the sand.
• Monetary policy will be kept at its current easy settings, undermining any attempt to defend a level.

Craig BothamChina+

PM Datanote: Governor Q&A, Japan, September

In one line: A long pause for monetary policy, but thinking on the yen is shifting

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22 SEPTEMBER 2022: No change from the BoJ

Doves defiant at the BoJ

Craig BothamChina+

21 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Yen Weakness will Continue to Push Japanese Inflation Higher

• Japanese inflation continues to climb, driven by cost-push pressures and base effects.
• The BoJ will not change tack, despite the multi-year high in CPI inflation.
• We expect Governor Kuroda to hold the line on both inflation and the yen at tomorrow’s meeting.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor The External Picture Deteriorates for a Helpless Japan

• Japan’s trade deficit blew out in August, thanks to energy costs and a falling yen.
• Exports are softer than they seem, flattered for now by price and base effects, but slowing at the margin.
• Yen weakness is worrying policymakers, but it can’t be fixed by unilateral intervention.

Craig BothamChina+