Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Asia Publications

Below is a full list of our Asia Publications.

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21 Aug 2020 No Real Reason for the PBoC to Flinch, as it Aims for a Quieter H2

The sound of silence in Chinese interest rates continued to reverberate this month.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)20th Aug 2020 19:10Asia

23 June 2020 Market Rates Should Continue to Fall in China, even with Stable LPR

China's loan prime rates were unchanged for a second straight month in June, as expected.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)22nd Jun 2020 20:10Asia

20 May 2020 Two Session Signals will be Blurred, QE is Coming but to no Fanfare

The annual National People's Congress meeting of China's legislature will get underway at the end of this week, after delay due to the Covid outbreak.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)19th May 2020 20:10Asia

28 Apr 2020 No Bazooka from the BoJ, but More Support for Firms and Banks

The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan stepped up its Covid-19 liquidity relief measures yesterday, while retaining its main policy settings--namely, the -0.10% balance rate...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)27th Apr 2020 20:10Asia

14 Apr 2020 Much Better Money Data from China... Better Late than Never

We're doing a wrap-up of the data that were released last week while we were away, and the Chinese numbers were both a hit and a miss.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)13th Apr 2020 20:10Asia

3 Apr 2020 Who Will Finance China's Ballooning Fiscal Deficit

China's economic targets are AWOL this year, thanks to Covid-19 disruptions to the legislative calendar... and because policymakers seem unsure of what targets to set in such...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)2nd Apr 2020 20:10Asia

31 Mar 2020 Expanded Fiscal Support Opens Road to Chinese QE

The PBoC cut its seven-day reverse repo rate to 2.20%, from 2.40%, while making a token injection; the Bank only moves these rates when it injects funds.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)30th Mar 2020 20:10Asia

30 Mar 2020 Industrial Profits Data Complete China's Grim Start to 2020

Industrial profits in China collapsed by 38.3% year- over-year in the first two months of 2020, making December's 6.3% fall look like a minor blip.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)29th Mar 2020 20:10Asia

27 Mar 2020 India Declares War on Covid-1, an H1 Recession Looks Inevitable

India's government imposed a three-week nationwide lockdown on March 25 to combat the increasingly rapid spread of Covid-19.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)26th Mar 2020 20:10Asia

23 Mar 2020 Japan's Threat to Global Financial Markets in this Massive Real Shock

The Covid-19 shock to the real economy in China, and now the world, is colossal. Asia is leading the downturn, both because the outbreak started in China, but also because of its...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)22nd Mar 2020 20:10Asia

19 Mar 2020 Japan Whacked by Supply Shock, Now for the Demand Damage

Japan's February trade data were a shocker, but not for the reasons we expected, given the signal from the Chinese numbers.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)18th Mar 2020 20:10Asia

17 Mar 2020 There is Nothing Remotely Like Q1 in Historical Chinese Data

We lack an adjective sufficiently strong to describe China's February activity data.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)16th Mar 2020 20:10Asia

16 Mar 2020 Damaged Global Demand will Curtail China's Recovery Potential

The sharply increased virus spread outside China has lead to a serious downgrade in the global GDP growth outlook.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)15th Mar 2020 20:10Asia

12 Mar 2020 China's Money and Credit Data Show No Room for Complacency

China's money and credit data for February were reassuring, at least when compared with the doomsday scenario painted, so far, by other key indicators for last month.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)11th Mar 2020 20:10Asia

5 Mar 2020 Does the Fed's Cut Open the Asian Floodgates for Rate Reductions

The Fed's unscheduled 50bp cut on Tuesday opens up some space for Asian central banks to follow suit.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)4th Mar 2020 19:10Asia

27 Feb 2020 Yesterday's Measures from China Help Avert Full-Blown Debt Crisis

Yesterday's State Council meeting significantly expanded support to the economy, through a number of channels.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)26th Feb 2020 19:10Asia

21 Feb 2020 China Credit Numbers are not Bad, but Pre-date Covid-19

Once again, Chinese January data released so far suggest that the Phase One trade deal was the dominant factor dictating activity for the first two- thirds of the month, with the...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)20th Feb 2020 19:10Asia

20 Feb 2020 What China's Doing about the Labour Market & Bankruptcy Threat

Wednesday's State Council meeting implies that the authorities are starting to take more serious coordinated fiscal measures to counter the virus threat to the labour market...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)19th Feb 2020 19:10Asia

19 Feb 2020 India's Slowdown is Over, GDP Growth Likely Rebounded in Q4

India's industrial production data last week are the last set of key economic indicators for the fourth quarter, before next week's Q4 GDP report.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)18th Feb 2020 19:10Asia

18 Feb 2020 Q4 was an Abrupt End to Japan's early 2019 Mirage

We've continuously warned that Japan's national accounts weren't sitting easily with the underlying signals from survey data, and monetary conditions, through last...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)17th Feb 2020 19:10Asia

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