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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

August

13 Sept 2021 Stand by for Some Weak August Activity Figures

  • Industrial production growth likely slowed sharply in August, despite strong trade figures.
  • FAI growth should soon rebound, but likely not in time for the August data.
  • We owe M1 a partial apology; our forecast is now coming back into line with its signal.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 Sept 2021 August Likely was the Peak in PPI Inflation, Expect Disinflation in 2022

  • PPI inflation surprised to the upside in August, reflecting stubborn commodity pressures...
  • ...The Ningbo-Zhoushan port closure likely was a factor, too, but disinflation is now on the horizon
  • Pork price deflation continues to pull down CPI inflation, but underlying pressures are still building.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

8 Sept 2021 August's Punchy Trade Likely will Come at the Expense of September

  • China's trade surplus surprised in August, with two- way trade enjoying hefty rebounds from July.
  • Activity likely benefited from front-loading, though, and the orders data still point to a sharp correction.
  • FX reserves fell only marginally in August, suggest- ing a bounce-back in capital outflows.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

3 Sept 2021 The Pitfalls and Positives for China in Korea's August Trade Numbers

  • Korean exports were solid in August, including those to China, despite the latter's Delta woes.
  • But Chinese demand still is underperforming, and activity last month likely flattered by front-loading.
  • More broadly, at least, Korea's trade data point to a more solid end to 2021 for global trade.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, August, China; Markit Manufacturing PMI, August, Korea 2021

  • In one line: Export-sensitive Caixin PMI hit by Delta
  • In one line: Korea’s PMI will avoid the depths of the Caixin

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

1 Sept 2021 The Services Collapse in August Highlights the Cost of "Zero Covid"

  • The Delta wave was smaller than the last outbreak, yet it caused more damage to the services sector...
  • ...Underscoring China's reluctance to ditch its Zero Covid stance; construction was the only bright spot.
  • The manufacturing PMI slipped only modestly in August, but forward-looking indicators stayed grim.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

31 Aug 2021 Covid Whack-a-Mole Means a Nasty August and September

  • Data in the next few months will force the authori- ties to reconsider zero Covid tolerance...
  • ... But translating that into an official shift in the policy stance could take time.
  • In the meantime, the August and September PMIs looked exposed.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

19 Aug 2021 China Needs Much More than the Mixed Trade Signals from NE Asia

  • The latest data from developed Asia show that trade is unlikely to rescue China from its domestic woes.
  • The slowdown in Japanese export growth is July isn't all down to base effects; momentum is waning.
  • Korea's early data look grim on the surface, but the first ten days of August tend to be a lull.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 Aug 2021 PBoC Easing Remains Unlikely, Despite July's Soft Money Data

Both M1 and M2 growth missed expectations in July, but the former arguably is due a turnaround.

Slowing household demand for credit isn't exactly concerning, as they are still sitting on piles of cash.

Japanese machine tool orders remain solid, indicating that the recovery in global IP is on track.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 Aug 2021 PBoC Tightening Would be Imminent if Not for the Delta Variant

PPI inflation is proving stubborn, while CPI inflation is just getting started.

Services inflation continues to rise, despite the broadening Delta scare.

Trade figures highlight the "mid-cycle" falter, as exports soften but imports stumble too.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 Aug 2021 The Trade Surplus is Likely to Remain Under Pressure

July exports likely weakened, while imports will be boosted by the tail end of commodities inflation.

PPI inflation may not yet have peaked; headline CPI inflation is just about food prices.

M1 growth should now be troughing, but an RRR cut is looking more likely nonetheless.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

3 Aug 2021 China's Manufacturing Underperformance Continues

China's weak July PMIs play into a wider story of underperformance in trade and manufacturing.

The official and Caixin reports are at odds on prices, but we reckon PPI inflation ticked higher in July.

The non-manufacturing gauge suggests that no fis- cal rescue has been forthcoming.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

2 Aug 2021 Underlying Chinese Inflation is More Progressed than in DMs

China's PPI inflation is at or near its peak, and CPI inflation remains relatively tame...

... But underlying inflationary pressure is more ad- vanced in China, thanks to the early recovery.

More limited slack means services inflation is on a sustained uptrend.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

19 July 2021 BoJ Playing it Down, but Green Fund Provisioning is Significant

Governor Kuroda was managing expectations about the new green fund-provisioning scheme in the press conference. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence