- Chinese policymakers are seemingly rethinking policy to rein in unbridled competition, after prior false starts.
- The key is political will—and a plan—to overcome vested interests, both local governments’ and firms’.
- Getting it right should lead to firmer pricing, stronger profits and less wasted capital investment.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The HKMA intervened again on Wednesday to defend the currency peg, which has been in place since 1983.
- The LERS is a double-edged sword: Hong Kong loses monetary policy freedom but gains stability.
- Any talk of re-pegging the HKD is premature; China and HKSAR are not yet an Optimal Currency Area.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China's Caixin PMI, Korea's PMI and Japan's Tankan point to manufacturers' measured relief at easing trade tensions
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Caixin PMI rebounded more strongly than the official manufacturing index in June…
- …Deflation pressures are festering, however, likely forcing regulatory curbs on excessive competition.
- Korea’s manufacturing PMI is starting to rise from its sickbed, now the election has reduced political risk.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC on Friday hinted it saw less need for a near- term monetary policy boost than three months ago.
- The June official manufacturing PMI improved, thanks to policy support and an easing in tariff tensions.
- The construction PMI ticked up at last, but it’s too soon to celebrate; the hard data pointed to slowing.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's Official PMIs point to improving manufacturing and construction activity, but weak jobs market
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo inflation cools thanks to energy subsidies restart
China's industrial profits hit by slower investment income and weak demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The fall in Tokyo inflation in June was largely due to energy subsidies kicking in again.
- The BoJ will probably stay put on interest rates, given sluggish growth and trade risks...
- ...Assuming oil prices are reasonably well behaved; markets appear sanguine about geopolitical risk.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rebound on stockpiling activity, but domestic demand softens
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's services business activity grow faster in June, but slowing input cost increase bode ill for wage growth
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s current account balance holds up in Q1, but deterioration likely in Q2.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s GDP shrinks for the first time in a year, reinforcing the BoJ's wait-and-see stance.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korea's 20-day exports rebound in June on front loading ahead of reprieve expiry
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's core inflation surprised on the upside, but unlikely to sway BoJ into hiking mode
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s June headline flash manufacturing index was lifted by output, but demand remained subdued.
- Cost pressures are easing only slowly, with global oil prices a key risk.
- The service sector continues to be bolstered by tourism, notably surging Chinese visitor numbers.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korea’s 20-day export growth rebounded, likely supported by stockpiling as the US’s deadline nears.
- Shipments to the US, EU and Taiwan were the main drivers, while chip exports were strong in June.
- The trade-talk logjam continues; we expect the grace period to be extended, allowing more negotiating time.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's commercial banks hold benchmark lending rates steady in June
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- - CHINA’S FLAGGING GROWTH TO PROMPT POLICY TWEAKS
- - BOJ OPTS FOR PRAGMATIC MIDDLE PATH ON BOND-BUYING
- - BOK LIKELY TO EASE, DESPITE CURRENCY WORRY
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s headline national consumer inflation inched down in May, with energy inflation cooling.
- The new rice distribution system is star ting to yield results, but rice prices are still double the target range.
- The BoJ is likely to sit tight on interest rates this year, given the impact of higher US tariffs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
