- Japan’s Tankan for large manufacturers deteriorated for the first time in a year.
- The silver lining is optimism for the non-manufacturing sector, storming to its highest since 1991.
- Nothing in the survey will surprise the BoJ, and we expect interest rates to reach 0.20% by end-2024.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s Tokyo inflation ticks up in March, thanks to a smaller fall in energy prices
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Manufacturing activity expands for the first time in 6 months
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Chinese officials are downplaying the risks linked to the continued struggles of the property sector.
- But the new-housing market showed little sign of reviving in the first two months of 2024.
- Piecemeal policy support is unlikely to bring about a near-term recovery in new-home sales.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China’s industrial profits bounce in February, owing to base effects
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China lending rates unchanged in March as per market consensus
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s industrial profits soared, on the low base last year when the country emerged from zero-Covid.
- Capital equipment and consumption goods manufacturing make up most of the profit improvement.
- We expect a firmer recovery after the implementation of the action plans to upgrade consumption.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The BoJ scraps negative rates and YCC policies in March, hinting at no further tightening unless inflation spikes.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The BoJ scraps negative rates and YCC policies in March, hinting at no further tightening unless inflation spikes.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The BoJ raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, while ending YCC and risky asset purchases.
- At the press conference, Governor Ueda’s rhetoric on the future path of the policy rate was neutral.
- Japan’s monetary policy should stay accommodative unless significant inflationary pressures mount.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
PBoC stands pat on MLF rate; draining cash from banking system first time since end 2022.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
PBoC stands pat on MLF rate; draining cash from banking system first time since end 2022
China’s property market rout continues, with prices falling further in February
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s consumer price inflation bounces in February; Upstream industries continue to see disinflationary pressure
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s upstream industries continue to see disinflationary pressure.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s consumer price inflation bounces in February, thanks to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Investors return to China’s stock markets in February
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s CPI rebounded due to the timing of Lunar New Year and stronger demand in food and services.
- By contrast, PPI slid further as deflationary pressure on upstream industries persists.
- We expect headline CPI disinflation to resume, and China continues to export deflation to rest of world.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China exports to emerging markets rise strongly in Jan-Feb; the jump in the year-to-date headline was due partly to base effects.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Japanese wages pick up, in advance of the Spring union talks
China exports to emerging markets rise strongly in Jan-Feb
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s export growth increased in January-to-February, partly due to the low base from last year.
- Exports to emerging markets have risen noticeably, while shipments to ASEAN were flat.
- New measures are being proposed at the NPC to prop up domestic demand and the property market.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+