China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- The Bank of Korea cut rates to 2.50% in May; board members’ decision was unanimous.
- Weaker growth and lingering uncertainty over trade were likely the factors driving this month’s cut.
- The stronger KRW gave the BoK a window to ease, and a July Fed cut would allow another 25bp cut this year.
- China’s residential sales have cooled gradually since the late-September round of policy support.
- May’s cuts to lending rates should pep up sales, but it won’t be the last round of support.
- Broad inventory likely still has two years to bottom out, though the recovery should begin earlier.
Core inflation ticks up after removal of energy subsidies
Core inflation nudges up, after energy subsidies end
- China’s April industrial profits ticked up a notch, helped by the consumer goods and equipment policies.
- But auto profits are still falling, despite rising sales, owing to fierce competition and excess supply.
- The tariff-war impact is likely to be felt in the coming months, hitting the profits of export sectors.
- Japan’s core consumer inflation ticked up in April, due to the removal of energy subsidies for households.
- The BoJ will probably hold rates steady to help growth, amid tariff uncertainty, and despite elevated inflation.
- Soaring bond yields, partly due to political risks, may yet force the Bank to intervene.
- Japan’s composite PMI dipped below 50 in May, led by rapidly slowing services and a drop in manufacturing.
- That said, US importers rushed to order goods ahead of the tariff reprieve expiring, offsetting falls in output.
- The BoJ will hold rates as it assesses the outcome of negotiations and their impact on the economy.
- CHINA MORE RESPONSIVE TO FALTERING GROWTH THIS YEAR
- JAPAN’S STUMBLING GROWTH A REASON FOR BOJ CAUTION
- BOK SET TO RESUME RATE CUTS IN MAY
- Korea saw improvements in early trade data for May, with exports falling at a slower pace.
- Japan’s export growth in April was hit by US tariffs on foreign cars and steel products.
- The BoK will resume easing to offset tariff impacts; the BoJ will pause rate hikes and assess negotiations.
- In one line: China's PMI data offers little cause for celebration
- China’s April retail sales, investment and industrial production point to flagging growth.
- Policymakers saw this coming, hence the PBoC’s May 7 announcement of interest rate and RRR cuts.
- The slowdown stems more from existing issues, with the direct impact of the tariff war still emerging.
China to stick to targeted easing, despite broad cooling in April activity growth
- Japan’s GDP shrank more than the market expected in Q1, and for the first time in a year.
- Weak services exports were to blame; consumption was hit by fragile confidence and high inflation.
- The BoJ will hold rate s for the time being, as it mulls the outcome of talks and assesses its effects.
- China’s broad credit growth rose in April, driven primarily by faster issuance of government bonds.
- The widening M2-M1 gap signifies persistent deflation pressure and subdued economic activity.
- Uncertainty over the outcome of talks will weigh on the economy, despite the recent US-China trade truce.
- China continues to suffer from deflation, amid falling commodity prices and trade disruption.
- Consumer core inflation remains subdued; producer prices for some export-related goods have fallen.
- The US–China tariff reprieve is growth-positive, but the outcome of negotiations remains highly uncertain.
- China reportedly plans to improve its housing model by banning pre-sale housing.
- The move would allow the authorities to control the supply of housing better, stabilising prices.
- China’s foreign reserves rose on the back of a bigger revaluation effect, thanks to the weaker USD in April.
- The PBoC yesterday announced targeted policy-rate and RRR cuts to bolster growth ahead of trade talks.
- The interest rate cut came earlier than we expected, capitalising on room created by CNY strength.
- The Bank is guiding to targeted mortgage rate cuts to support the stumbling ‘ordinary’ housing market.
Caixin services PMI points to business jitters over tariff worries
- Industrial profitability improved further in Q1, on the back of strong manufacturing production.
- China’s industrial output was bolstered by stimulus demand and tariff front-loading activity.
- External uncertainty does not bode well for producers’ profit outlook, as overcapacity issues are worsening.
- Behind-the-scenes diplomacy has set the stage for Sino-US trade dialogue.
- We expect the bilateral relationship to thaw as internal pressure forces both to the negotiating table.
- Korea fast-tracks US trade talks as tariffs weaken exports and drive industrial activity to a 31-month low.
