China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Japan’s core consumer inflation ticked up in April, due to the removal of energy subsidies for households.
- The BoJ will probably hold rates steady to help growth, amid tariff uncertainty, and despite elevated inflation.
- Soaring bond yields, partly due to political risks, may yet force the Bank to intervene.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s composite PMI dipped below 50 in May, led by rapidly slowing services and a drop in manufacturing.
- That said, US importers rushed to order goods ahead of the tariff reprieve expiring, offsetting falls in output.
- The BoJ will hold rates as it assesses the outcome of negotiations and their impact on the economy.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- CHINA MORE RESPONSIVE TO FALTERING GROWTH THIS YEAR
- JAPAN’S STUMBLING GROWTH A REASON FOR BOJ CAUTION
- BOK SET TO RESUME RATE CUTS IN MAY
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Korea saw improvements in early trade data for May, with exports falling at a slower pace.
- Japan’s export growth in April was hit by US tariffs on foreign cars and steel products.
- The BoK will resume easing to offset tariff impacts; the BoJ will pause rate hikes and assess negotiations.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: China's PMI data offers little cause for celebration
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s April retail sales, investment and industrial production point to flagging growth.
- Policymakers saw this coming, hence the PBoC’s May 7 announcement of interest rate and RRR cuts.
- The slowdown stems more from existing issues, with the direct impact of the tariff war still emerging.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China to stick to targeted easing, despite broad cooling in April activity growth
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s GDP shrank more than the market expected in Q1, and for the first time in a year.
- Weak services exports were to blame; consumption was hit by fragile confidence and high inflation.
- The BoJ will hold rate s for the time being, as it mulls the outcome of talks and assesses its effects.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s broad credit growth rose in April, driven primarily by faster issuance of government bonds.
- The widening M2-M1 gap signifies persistent deflation pressure and subdued economic activity.
- Uncertainty over the outcome of talks will weigh on the economy, despite the recent US-China trade truce.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China continues to suffer from deflation, amid falling commodity prices and trade disruption.
- Consumer core inflation remains subdued; producer prices for some export-related goods have fallen.
- The US–China tariff reprieve is growth-positive, but the outcome of negotiations remains highly uncertain.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China reportedly plans to improve its housing model by banning pre-sale housing.
- The move would allow the authorities to control the supply of housing better, stabilising prices.
- China’s foreign reserves rose on the back of a bigger revaluation effect, thanks to the weaker USD in April.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The PBoC yesterday announced targeted policy-rate and RRR cuts to bolster growth ahead of trade talks.
- The interest rate cut came earlier than we expected, capitalising on room created by CNY strength.
- The Bank is guiding to targeted mortgage rate cuts to support the stumbling ‘ordinary’ housing market.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Caixin services PMI points to business jitters over tariff worries
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Industrial profitability improved further in Q1, on the back of strong manufacturing production.
- China’s industrial output was bolstered by stimulus demand and tariff front-loading activity.
- External uncertainty does not bode well for producers’ profit outlook, as overcapacity issues are worsening.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Behind-the-scenes diplomacy has set the stage for Sino-US trade dialogue.
- We expect the bilateral relationship to thaw as internal pressure forces both to the negotiating table.
- Korea fast-tracks US trade talks as tariffs weaken exports and drive industrial activity to a 31-month low.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
BoJ's newly bearish tone on inflation risks supports our view that rate hikes are on hold this year
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoJ's newly bearish tone on inflation risks supports our view that rate hikes are on hold this year
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Bank of Japan left rates on hold yesterday to no-one’s surprise, but adopted a more bearish outlook.
- Governor Ueda denied that the prospect of delay in attaining the inflation goal means delayed rate hikes.
- It probably does for this year, but Ueda is maintaining room to shift policy in light of trade uncertainty.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Manufacturing activity bashed by tariff war
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Manufacturing activity bashed by tariff war
Non-manufacturing activity slows
Duncan WrigleyChina+
