China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: China’s CPI stays flat in July as disinflation pressure lingers on weak demand
In one line: China's producer deflation improvement mainly driven by short-term factors; consumer price fall is due to food prices, with core inflation rising
- China's August producer deflation improved, led by steel and coal, likely due to reviving building demand.
- Anti-price-war policies are likely to have more effect in traditional sectors than in high-tech ones.
- Core consumer inflation is weak but gradually rising, indicative of the slow repair in domestic demand.
- China exports slowed for third successive month in August, dragged down by low-tech shipments.
- US was largest drag on growth; monthly exports fell 12.8% seasonally adjusted, offsetting ASEAN's gains.
- Export growth is set to slow in H2 on the back of a weaker US economy and less stockpiling.
- A US executive order finally formalises its trade deal with Japan, ending uncertainty for Japan’s economy.
- Real wages have risen for the first time since December, boosting October rate-hike bets.
- The BoJ is likely to look past weaker ‘same-sample’ data, with trade worries fading.
In one line: China's RatingDog services PMI points to job risks after court ruling on social security contributions
- The August RatingDog services PMI flashed a warning signal about job losses, despite strong activity.
- A court ruling on mandatory social security payments is the likely culprit, leading firms to trim workers.
- Local governments probably won't fully enforce the rule, but the uncertainty created is hitting jobs already.
- China's August PMIs diverged, with RatingDog pointing to a soft recovery from the tariff shock...
- ...but the weak official manufacturing gauge indicates sluggish domestic demand, though pricing improved.
- Services activity rose, on the back of stock-market trading and tourism, but construction is on the rocks.
In one line: China's manufacturing PMIs post modest gains; Korean exports propped up by chip exports
- History suggests that China’s stock-market rally could boost GDP but won’t do much for consumer sentiment.
- Policymakers will opt for targeted policy support, lest broad easing drives excessive funds into stocks.
- Tokyo headline inflation slowed in August due to energy subsidies; food inflation remains elevated.
In one line: Tokyo inflation fall mainly due to energy subsidies
In one line: BoK stays put amid US pressure not to weaken currency
- The BoK left the policy rate unchanged yesterday, citing household-debt worries.
- The Bank is probably also seeking to avoid upsetting the US with a rate cut which could weaken the KRW.
- A likely government housing-supply plan and Fed rate cut in September should allow a BoK rate cut in Q4.
China's industrial profits still falling in July
- Tier-one cities are leading another round of targeted residential property market easing in China.
- The goal is stabilisation, however, rather than returning to solid growth, so expect an L-shaped recovery.
- Industrial profits barely improved in July amid excess supply; manufacturing profits are rising though.
In one line: Japan's slowing headline inflation won't shift BoJ's worries about rising food inflation
Japan's slowing headline inflation won't shift BoJ's worries about rising food inflation
- Japan’s headline inflation slowed, despite a modest uptick in food inflation.
- The agriculture ministry has revised its diagnosis of the causes of red-hot rice prices; no easy fix is in sight.
- Stubbornly elevated food inflation strengthens the case for the BoJ to resume rate hikes in October.
- - CHINA’S WEAK DEMAND CONTRASTS WITH BUOYANT STOCKS
- - BOJ WAITING FOR DUST TO SETTLE BEFORE HIKING RATES
- - ROCKY EXPORT OUTLOOK KEY TO KOREAN GROWTH
- Higher tariffs hurt Japan’s car and steel exporters in July, with export values seeing precipitous declines.
- Car export prices to the US are still falling in USD terms, but more slowly. Exporters are absorbing costs.
- Japan’s flash composite PMI has slid for three straight months but points to stronger domestic demand in July.
