China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- China's August PMIs diverged, with RatingDog pointing to a soft recovery from the tariff shock...
- ...but the weak official manufacturing gauge indicates sluggish domestic demand, though pricing improved.
- Services activity rose, on the back of stock-market trading and tourism, but construction is on the rocks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: China's manufacturing PMIs post modest gains; Korean exports propped up by chip exports
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- History suggests that China’s stock-market rally could boost GDP but won’t do much for consumer sentiment.
- Policymakers will opt for targeted policy support, lest broad easing drives excessive funds into stocks.
- Tokyo headline inflation slowed in August due to energy subsidies; food inflation remains elevated.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Tokyo inflation fall mainly due to energy subsidies
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: BoK stays put amid US pressure not to weaken currency
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK left the policy rate unchanged yesterday, citing household-debt worries.
- The Bank is probably also seeking to avoid upsetting the US with a rate cut which could weaken the KRW.
- A likely government housing-supply plan and Fed rate cut in September should allow a BoK rate cut in Q4.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's industrial profits still falling in July
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tier-one cities are leading another round of targeted residential property market easing in China.
- The goal is stabilisation, however, rather than returning to solid growth, so expect an L-shaped recovery.
- Industrial profits barely improved in July amid excess supply; manufacturing profits are rising though.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Japan's slowing headline inflation won't shift BoJ's worries about rising food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's slowing headline inflation won't shift BoJ's worries about rising food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s headline inflation slowed, despite a modest uptick in food inflation.
- The agriculture ministry has revised its diagnosis of the causes of red-hot rice prices; no easy fix is in sight.
- Stubbornly elevated food inflation strengthens the case for the BoJ to resume rate hikes in October.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- - CHINA’S WEAK DEMAND CONTRASTS WITH BUOYANT STOCKS
- - BOJ WAITING FOR DUST TO SETTLE BEFORE HIKING RATES
- - ROCKY EXPORT OUTLOOK KEY TO KOREAN GROWTH
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Higher tariffs hurt Japan’s car and steel exporters in July, with export values seeing precipitous declines.
- Car export prices to the US are still falling in USD terms, but more slowly. Exporters are absorbing costs.
- Japan’s flash composite PMI has slid for three straight months but points to stronger domestic demand in July.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's LPRs on hold, despite July's weakening demand data
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's LPRs on hold, despite weakening demand data
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC on Monday gave no hint of imminent easing, despite July’s underwhelming activity data.
- China is likely to go slow on further policy support, so it has options if trade talks with the US hit a wall.
- The property market is worsening again, putting developer finances under pressure.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: lacklustre broad credit growth, excluding government bonds
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: China's weakening investment and retail sales data raise worries for H2 demand outlook
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s July activity data point to a worrying slowdown in domestic demand, notably investment.
- Industrial and services output maintained growth, however, above the 5% target for official GDP growth.
- More targeted stimulus will be needed in the coming months, especially if and when export growth sinks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: China’s FX reserves dip on stronger dollar and bond loses in July.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
