China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- The HKMA intervened again on Wednesday to defend the currency peg, which has been in place since 1983.
- The LERS is a double-edged sword: Hong Kong loses monetary policy freedom but gains stability.
- Any talk of re-pegging the HKD is premature; China and HKSAR are not yet an Optimal Currency Area.
China's Caixin PMI, Korea's PMI and Japan's Tankan point to manufacturers' measured relief at easing trade tensions
- The Caixin PMI rebounded more strongly than the official manufacturing index in June…
- …Deflation pressures are festering, however, likely forcing regulatory curbs on excessive competition.
- Korea’s manufacturing PMI is starting to rise from its sickbed, now the election has reduced political risk.
- The PBoC on Friday hinted it saw less need for a near- term monetary policy boost than three months ago.
- The June official manufacturing PMI improved, thanks to policy support and an easing in tariff tensions.
- The construction PMI ticked up at last, but it’s too soon to celebrate; the hard data pointed to slowing.
China's Official PMIs point to improving manufacturing and construction activity, but weak jobs market
Tokyo inflation cools thanks to energy subsidies restart
China's industrial profits hit by slower investment income and weak demand
- The fall in Tokyo inflation in June was largely due to energy subsidies kicking in again.
- The BoJ will probably stay put on interest rates, given sluggish growth and trade risks...
- ...Assuming oil prices are reasonably well behaved; markets appear sanguine about geopolitical risk.
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rebound on stockpiling activity, but domestic demand softens
In one line: Japan's services business activity grow faster in June, but slowing input cost increase bode ill for wage growth
In one line: China’s current account balance holds up in Q1, but deterioration likely in Q2.
In one line: Japan’s GDP shrinks for the first time in a year, reinforcing the BoJ's wait-and-see stance.
In one line: Korea's 20-day exports rebound in June on front loading ahead of reprieve expiry
In one line: Japan's core inflation surprised on the upside, but unlikely to sway BoJ into hiking mode
- Japan’s June headline flash manufacturing index was lifted by output, but demand remained subdued.
- Cost pressures are easing only slowly, with global oil prices a key risk.
- The service sector continues to be bolstered by tourism, notably surging Chinese visitor numbers.
- Korea’s 20-day export growth rebounded, likely supported by stockpiling as the US’s deadline nears.
- Shipments to the US, EU and Taiwan were the main drivers, while chip exports were strong in June.
- The trade-talk logjam continues; we expect the grace period to be extended, allowing more negotiating time.
In one line: China's commercial banks hold benchmark lending rates steady in June
In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June
- - CHINA’S FLAGGING GROWTH TO PROMPT POLICY TWEAKS
- - BOJ OPTS FOR PRAGMATIC MIDDLE PATH ON BOND-BUYING
- - BOK LIKELY TO EASE, DESPITE CURRENCY WORRY
- Japan’s headline national consumer inflation inched down in May, with energy inflation cooling.
- The new rice distribution system is star ting to yield results, but rice prices are still double the target range.
- The BoJ is likely to sit tight on interest rates this year, given the impact of higher US tariffs.
Japanese exports fall as US tariff hikes slam auto shipments
