China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: China’s FX reserves rose further in February amid RMB strength, partly driven by exporters repatriating overseas USD proceeds.
In one line: Consumer inflation gets holiday bump; Producer inflation continued to improve, ahead of oil price surge
- China’s 15th Five-Year Plan confirms the emphasis on technology and manufacturing to power growth...
- ...We expect continued success on this front, but little progress in rebalancing to consumption and services.
- Services development is hampered by low education; 65-to-70% of workers lack a high-school diploma.
In one line: China's lower growth target signals priority for structural adjustment over short-term growth
- Premier Li set a lower growth target for 2026, as we expected, to put the focus on structural adjustment…
- …China is reliant on export growth, but that could be in jeopardy given geopolitical tensions and trade risks.
- Korea would be more vulnerable than Japan and China to a prolonged oil-price spike.
- China’s NPC meeting commences today; we expect a lower growth target and a focus on tech self-reliance…
- …US-China trade representatives will meet in Paris next weekend, ahead of April’s Xi-Trump Beijing summit.
- The conflict in Iran likely adds 0.1pp to East Asian inflation over a few months, due to logistics issues.
In one line: Korean PMI points to building inflation pressure
- Premier Li is likely to trim the 2025 growth target tomorrow, putting the focus on medium-term goals.
- China will probably step up the rhetoric on consumption, but without the matching substance.
- Policymakers are reluctant to shift support away from industrial policy, seen as key to China’s success.
In one line: Korea’s export jump exaggerated by LNY timing; semiconductors still underpin growth.
In one line: Property and construction weakness drags China’s non-manufacturing PMI below 50
In one line: China’s manufacturing PMI slips, as a larger-than-usual post-December festive and pre-LNY demand pullback exposes weak fundamentals.
In one line: Korea exports surge in full-month February on global AI investment boom
In one line: Tokyo headline inflation under control
- Governor Ueda’s musings on a March or April policy rate hike are likely intended to bolster JPY…
- …Less currency pressure and low headline inflation will likely allow the BoJ to delay hiking until Q4.
- Tokyo headline inflation edged up only 0.1pp to a still restrained 1.6% in February.
- The Bank of Korea stood pat in February, and introduced longer-term forward guidance on rate direction.
- Governor Rhee cited persistent financial stability risk and a stronger growth outlook as reasons to hold.
- The newly introduced Fed-style dot-plot suggests no change in policy rate for at least six months.
- - CHINA'S POLICYMAKERS FOCUS ON LONGER-TERM GOALS
- - PM TAKAICHI LIKELY MORE PRAGMATIC THAN FEARED
- - BOK RELIEF AS KRW PRESSURE EASES, FOR NOW
In one line: LPRs unchanged, with China relying on fiscal policy to support growth
- Booming Korean exports in the first 20 days of February are mainly a semiconductor story…
- …Chip exports skyrocketed almost 180% thanks to rising prices and volumes.
- The BoK is likely to hold rates on Friday, despite soft activity outside the tech sector.
In one line: Cooling consumer inflation justifies BoJ taking time on rate hike
- We think the market has got it wrong in expecting a BoJ policy rate hike in April; Q4 is more likely.
- Headline inflation is likely to fall, while PM Takaichi will probably prove more fiscally pragmatic than feared.
- A case is emerging for a more positive view on Japan’s outlook, with the budget as the first test.
