CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1 May 2025: BoJ adopts bearish inflation outlook

BoJ's newly bearish tone on inflation risks supports our view that rate hikes are on hold this year

2 May 2025 China+ Monitor The BoJ's dovish hold renders rate hikes unlikely this year

• The Bank of Japan left rates on hold yesterday to no-one’s surprise, but adopted a more bearish outlook.
• Governor Ueda denied that the prospect of delay in attaining the inflation goal means delayed rate hikes.
• It probably does for this year, but Ueda is maintaining room to shift policy in light of trade uncertainty.

China+ Datanote: Manufacturing PMIs, China, April

Manufacturing activity bashed by tariff war

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 30 April 2025: Manufacturing activity bashed by tariff war

Manufacturing activity bashed by tariff war
Non-manufacturing activity slows

1 May 2025 China+ Monitor China's new export orders slammed as deflation pressures mount

• China’s April PMIs reveal the initial hit from the tariff stand-off, with steep drops in new export orders.
• Neither the US nor China appears ready to relent at this stage, so further weakness lies ahead.
• China is rolling out an eclectic set of growth-support measures, but won’t go for mega-stimulus.