9 January 2024 China+ Monitor China's Foreign Reserves Continue to Rise, as Yield Pressure Eases

• China’s foreign reserves posted a second straight strong rise in December, as U.S. yields fell.
• Both valuation effects and improved capital inflows drove the marked increase in reserves.
• China’s pro-growth policy tilt is seen in the firing of an official, after new gaming rules hit stock prices. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 8 JANUARY 2024: Reserves rise thanks to narrowing yield gap

China's foreign reserves rise, thanks to a narrowing yield gap

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5 JANUARY 2024

Japan's Services PMI Reports Higher Domestic Demand in December

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

8 January 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's Services Survey Reports Higher Domestic Demand

• Japan’s services sector is expanding at a faster pace; the PMI reports more domestic customers.
• The downturn in manufacturing intensified on demand uncertainty, both at home and abroad.
• The BoJ is likely to exit its negative rate policy in Q2, even if the economic backdrop does not warrant it.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 4 JANUARY 2024; Caixin services PMI; Japan final mfg PMI

Caixin services PMI offers glimmers of hope

Japanese manufacturing activity is struggling

Duncan WrigleyChina+

5 January 2024 China+ Monitor China's Service Sector Continues to Lead a Soft Recovery

• The Caixin PMI indicated rising service activity in December, in contrast to the depressed official PMI...
• ...But the Caixin PMI has been a better leading indicator of services production recently.
• Consumer services demand is likely to continue to outperform soft consumer goods demand in 2024.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, December

Korean exports rise sharply on a WDA basis

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, December

The volatile Caixin PMI is more optimistic than the official measure again

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 2 JANUARY 2024

The volatile Caixin PMI is more optimistic than the official measure again

Korea’s manufacturing activities steady in December

Korean export growth accelerates on a WDA basis 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

3 January 2024 China+ Monitor Chinese Manufacturing Activity Continues to Flounder

• December’s NBS manufacturing PMI fell for a third straight month, to the weakest level since June.
• The divergence between the official and the Caixin measures continues, especially on export orders.
• The government will rely more on fiscal policy in 2024. The PSL deployment is a quasi-fiscal example.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

2 January 2024 China+ Monitor China's Property Sector is Barely Making Progress

• Developer funding improved in November, thanks to regulatory support to ensure project completions.
• Home sales continue to fall steeply, but construction activity appears to be bottoming out at a low level.
• A sharp fall in existing-home prices likely indicates a supply surge as investors offload properties.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

December 2023 - China+ Chartbook

• - CHINA PRIORITISES RESTRUCTURING OVER GROWTH
• - FALLING INFLATION SHOULD DELAY BOJ TIGHTENING
• - BOK WORRIED ABOUT HIGH HOUSEHOLD DEBT

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: National CPI, Japan, November

Japan’s inflation slows in November, thanks to easing food and core prices

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22 DECEMBER 2023

Japan National CPI slows sharply in November as cost-push factors ease

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

22 December 2023 China+ Monitor Lumpy Exports of Vessels and Chips Drive Korean Shipments Higher

• Korea’s 20-day exports rose sharply in December on base effects, and jumps in vessel and chip exports.
• Exports to China and Hong Kong continue to recover, while shipments to the EU tanked.
• Any improvement in Korea’s exports hinges on how sustained the ICT rebound and China’s recovery are. 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, December

Korean 20-day exports accelerate on the back of base effects and lumpy shipments of hi-tech vessels and semiconductors

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21 DECEMBER 2023

Korean 20-day exports accelerate on the back of base effects and lumpy shipments of hi-tech vessels and semiconductors

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

21 December 2023 China+ Monitor China Keeps Lending Rates Steady, As Fiscal Policy Is in the Driver's Seat

• The PBoC kept one-and five-year LPRs steady in December, after standing pat on MLF rates earlier.
• Japan’s exports dipped back into negative growth in November following two months of expansion.
• Exports to the US and EU slowed significantly, while car exports continue to grow, albeit less strongly.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: PBoC Policy Decision, China, December

China keeps lending rates steady

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 DECEMBER 2023

China keeps lending rates steady; Japan's exports shrink for the first time in 3 months

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+