China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Korean exports jump, thanks to chip sales; oil product shipments surge
In one line: LPRs steady; PBoC aims for "price recovery"
- China is seeking to rehabilitate private firms, as they can support national goals in tech development.
- Private firms have made some gains over the past couple of years, but are still recovering.
- They are bullish on prospects for sale s and consumer prices, but still glum on producer prices.
In one line: BoJ on hold amid oil shock risks and divided inflation views
Japan's exports slow due to holiday calendar effects
Chip and electrical machinery shipments rise
- The BoJ held the policy rate yesterday, unsurprisingly given the ever-changing oil-price situation.
- Governor Ueda is keeping options open, amid different views on inflation among voting members.
- Our base case is a July rate hike, assuming oil prices fall in the coming months; but April is not ruled out.
- China faces the likely prospect of a modest bump in consumer inflation from the oil-price surge...
- ...Soft pork prices are likely to partly offset higher energy costs; but producer inflation could swing dramatically.
- Japan would be more vulnerable to an oil price at $150 per barrel, forcing an early BoJ rate hike.
- China’s activity data for the first two months of this year paint a brighter picture than we expected...
- ...But stronger consumption is largely a temporary effect of higher spending during the extended holiday.
- Policy-supported infrastructure investment rebounded earlier than we expected; property sector is still weak.
China's consumer spending was boosted by longer holiday
infrastructure investment rebounds thanks to policy support
Industrial output lifted by export demand
- We expect little improvement in China’s consumption activity in January-to-February in the data out today...
- ...Falling car sales should off set higher holiday spending, while the FAI improvement will be slow.
- Government-bond issuance continues to prop up broad credit growth; corporate credit should edge up.
- China’s exports sustained a robust performance in the first two months of 2026...
- ...Meaning policymakers feel little pressure to spur domestic demand in the near term.
- Falling land sales in the first two months point to sustained property investment weakness.
In one line: Bank of Korea hold rates at 2.50%; Adding Fed-style dot plot to anchor market expectations, signals six months hold
In one line: Korea’s 20-day exports surge in February on semiconductors, despite fewer working days, as DRAM prices soar in Q1
In one line: Japan exports spike on Lunar New Year boost, strong momentum unlikely to last.
- China’s consumer inflation in January-February, at 0.8%, was in line with the previous two months.
- Low inflation and sluggish domestic demand leave ample room to absorb an energy-price surge.
- Producer inflation continued to improve in February, thanks to oil and non-ferrous metals prices.
In one line: Japan’s softer than expected GDP outturn reinforces our case for a later than market rate hike.
In one line: China’s Q4 current account surplus surges on strong goods exports
China's PPI reflation remains patchy; CPI falls back on Lunar New Year timing
In one line: China’s PPI deflation eases further in January, but improvements were patchy.
In one line: China’s FX reserves jumped in January on factors beyond valuation effects.
