China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Weekly Monitor Global
- China’s December Politburo meeting yesterday signalled greater confidence in the near-term outlook...
- ...allowing renewed focus on long-term structural issues as well as near-term demand support.
- Exports rose 5.9% year-over-year in November, thanks to demand from non-US markets.
- China’s industrial-profit recovery stalled in October after emerging from the trough in the summer.
- The deterioration was broad-based, but the slowdown was led primarily by weakness in manufacturing.
- Two of the three industrial-profit drivers worsened, and feeble demand failed to create more revenue.
- China’s manufacturing PMIs indicate domestic demand remains lacklustre.
- A rebound in builders’ sentiment offers hope that the policy-bank funding support will gain purchase.
- China is likely to opt for targeted support, like expanded consumer subsidies at this month’s Politburo meeting
- Tokyo inflation edged down to 2.7% year-over-year in November, but the BoJ will focus more on the markets.
- Government claims that total borrowing this year will less than last year have provided reassurance for now.
- The 2026 wage outlook looks reasonably promising, despite the earlier profit hit to automakers from tariffs.
- Japan’s PM Takaichi revealed a mega-stimulus plan to ease the impact of inflation and boost growth.
- Inflation data support a December hike, but domestic politics and geopolitics complicate the timing…
- …Still, extreme JPY weakness may ultimately force the BoJ to hike, if its intervention impact proves short-lived.
- China’s activity data deteriorated further in October, underscoring still-lacklustre domestic demand…
- …The weakness in FAI remains the focal point; it is on course to have its worst-performing year since 1994.
- Excess property inventory will take some time to digest; the market will now focus on December’s CEWC.
- China’s arithmetic fall in exports in October is mainly due to calendar effects, rather than a demand slump.
- Shipments to non-US markets dropped sharply, while exports to the US were still weak but didn’t worsen.
- Export growth is likely to slow next year, given limited capacity for the Global South to absorb rapid rises.
- China is countering its investment slump by approving an additional RMB500B in local-government bonds...
- ...And driving though the disbursal of RMB500B in policy-bank funds for investment projects.
- This should boost the official manufacturing index from its October trough.
