China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Daily Monitor
- China’s manufacturing PMIs for January diverged, pointing to robust high-tech versus weak low-tech.
- Soft data for output prices improved, but this likely reflects a narrow set of prices, like non-ferrous metals.
- Construction-sector sentiment slumped to its lowest since the outbreak of Covid, despite policy support.
- US allies’ visits to China signal geopolitical hedging, but don’t expect genuine economic integration.
- Beijing appears to be organising these visits to isolate Washington, judging by who initiated the invitations.
- Middle powers are hedging against US unpredictability, but economic fragmentation will lead to higher inflation.
- Private firms are turning more optimistic about profits, with good reason, but only in certain sectors...
- ...The AI boom, green energy transition and industrial upgrading are lifting profits for related sectors.
- But Q4 consumer sentiment remained glum, indicating continued sluggish domestic demand this year.
- China’s A-share markets are surging, despite weak private-sector business sentiment and profits…
- …and are likely to continue to benefit from ample liquidity, from retail investors and overseas earnings.
- Regulators would likely intervene, though, if they view the market rise as too fast or overly based on leverage.
- - CHINA SEES LESS URGENCY TO STABILISE PROPERTY MARKET
- - BOJ WON'T HURRY RATE HIKES, DESPITE SNAP ELECTION
- - BOK LIKELY HOPES TO SQUEEZE IN ONE MORE RATE CUT
- Chinese policymakers apparently see little prospect of a short-term residential property-market recovery.
- The home provident fund reform is unlikely to boost property demand, barring a huge funding injection.
- Developer credit risk remains high, as home sales income falls and policy support is adjusted.
- Policymakers won’t be flustered by the Q4 GDP growth slippage, hit by flagging investment and consumption.
- They can bank on solid export growth, thanks to burgeoning competitiveness in higher-tech products.
- Quasi-fiscal policy support backed by the policy banks is still coming through; more property support is likely.
- The PBoC yesterday signalled room for policy rate and RRR cuts, while easing via structural policy tools.
- We expect only a token 10bp policy rate cut this year, likely timed to counter shocks, such as to trade policy.
- Private-sector credit growth remained sluggish in December; quasi-fiscal policy is still gaining traction.
- China’s successful diversification kept its exports afloat in 2025, with the amount exported reaching USD3.77T.
- The record trade surplus masks exceptionally weak imports, which reflect feeble domestic demand.
- China’s export strategy will face rising challenges in 2026 as non-US trade protectionism escalates.
- China’s $11.5B rise in foreign reserves in December was down entirely to currency-valuation effects.
- The large trade surplus has been resilient, despite tariff frictions, due to exports expanding into new markets.
- Our estimated residual net capital outflow probably points to retained export earnings held offshore.
- The December RatingDog services PMI points to slowing demand but a marked revival in sentiment.
- Firms are reluctant to hire though, and services inflation pressure is muted.
- China has provided more funds for consumer subsidies, though less than this time last year.
- China’s residential sales are still slumping in December, with weakness across all city tiers.
- Tier-one city pre-owned housing prices sank, amid reports of a surge in listings of low- to mid-end units.
- Policymakers seem resigned to a protracted recovery, with no new ideas at the CEWC.
- - CHINA SIGNALS 'STEADY AS SHE GOES' POLICY APPROACH
- - JAPAN'S STEADY WAGE-HIKE OUTLOOK SHOULD NUDGE BOJ
- - BOK HOPING FOR RESPITE IN KRW PRESSURE
- The BoJ’s regional branches report steady wage-hike expectations for 2026, except at small firms.
- Japan’s December flash PMIs see manufacturing activity reviving but cost pressures mounting.
- The Q4 Tankan finds severe labour shortages, but these have yet to spur an uptick in broad wage growth.
- China’s November activity data point to slowing goods consumption but steady services spending.
- Still-falling fixed asset investment has yet to benefit from the quasi-fiscal-stimulus funding support.
- Policymakers will proceed cautiously on tackling the reasons for the weak demand, amid bright exports.
- Bank of Korea remained on hold in November, citing a stronger growth and inflation outlook and a weak KRW.
- The accompanying statement dropped “easing stance” wording, amid a reduced easing bias on the MPB.
- While staying open to possible cuts, the chance of a January move is lower, likely pushed back to February.
- - CHINA LIKELY TO FOCUS ON EBBING DOMESTIC ACTIVITY
- - BOJ DECEMBER RATE HIKE BACK ON THE TABLE
- - KOREA’S CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REBOUND
- China’s new promotion scheme to raise consumption issued yesterday is old wine in new wineskins.
- The scheme focuses on boosting supply, without addressing the root causes of dull consumer demand.
- Bright spots amid the gloom include rising spending on consumer services, like sports and tourism.
- China’s residential property market is weakening again, in the absence of robust new policy support.
- Broad inventory needs another 18 months to bottom out, but even that depends on sentiment stabilising.
- A modest rise in land sales this year, albeit from a very low base, is a flickering ray of light.
- Japan’s Q3 GDP shrank, hit by weaker net exports, a slower inventory rise and falling residential investment.
- The government aims to secure a larger supplementary budget than in 2024, leading to bond-market worries.
- The diplomatic spat with China over Taiwan could put a 0.3pp dent in GDP growth if Chinese tourism stops.
