China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Daily Monitor
- Japan’s Tankan for large manufacturers deteriorated for the first time in a year.
- The silver lining is optimism for the non-manufacturing sector, storming to its highest since 1991.
- Nothing in the survey will surprise the BoJ, and we expect interest rates to reach 0.20% by end-2024.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s March official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs were both above 50 for the first time since September.
- A strong industrial sector is generating demand for business services too.
- But the lacklustre labour market and dismal property sector will limit the speed of China’s recovery.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s industrial profits soared, on the low base last year when the country emerged from zero-Covid.
- Capital equipment and consumption goods manufacturing make up most of the profit improvement.
- We expect a firmer recovery after the implementation of the action plans to upgrade consumption.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
CHINA+ OUTLOOK
- CHINA’S TWO SESSIONS OFFER ONLY TARGETED STIMULUS
- BOJ EXITS FROM NEGATIVE RATES; NO NEAR-TERM MOVES
- DEMAND FOR HIGH-END CHIPS LIFTS KOREAN EXPORTS
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s foreign direct investment seems to have passed its lowest point, hit in late 2023.
- Top policymakers are rolling out the red carpet to tempt foreign CEOs back to China, as it recovers.
- But geopolitical tensions will limit the foreign investment rebound, especially in high-tech sectors.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s March flash manufacturing PMI points to still-tepid activity, though improving modestly.
- The service sector continues to shine brightly, albeit based narrowly on tourism and finance.
- A jump in service-sector input costs is a worrying sign of persistently elevated inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, while ending YCC and risky asset purchases.
- At the press conference, Governor Ueda’s rhetoric on the future path of the policy rate was neutral.
- Japan’s monetary policy should stay accommodative unless significant inflationary pressures mount.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s lopsided recovery continued in January and February, led by a galloping industrial sector...
- ...Demand is likely mainly coming from exports and fixed asset investment, with consumption still tepid.
- Further price cuts should drive car sales, while new-property developer woes continue.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- BoJ Governor Ueda gave mixed signals at his legislature appearance on Tuesday.
- Japan’s January household spending data were broadly weak, but the incoming wage data are key...
- ...The BoJ is likely to keep rates on hold next week, waiting for more data, leaving the rate hike until April.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s CPI rebounded due to the timing of Lunar New Year and stronger demand in food and services.
- By contrast, PPI slid further as deflationary pressure on upstream industries persists.
- We expect headline CPI disinflation to resume, and China continues to export deflation to rest of world.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s export growth increased in January-to-February, partly due to the low base from last year.
- Exports to emerging markets have risen noticeably, while shipments to ASEAN were flat.
- New measures are being proposed at the NPC to prop up domestic demand and the property market.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The February services PMIs were both respectable, albeit still below long-term averages...
- ...But weak employment indices highlight the fragility of domestic demand.
- Premier Li yesterday indicated a steady course, with no big stimulus, and outlined targeted measures.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Underlying growth in Korean exports was stronger in February, adjusted for working-day differences.
- Surging demand for semiconductors drove exports higher, thanks to a sustained ICT upturn.
- The BoK will start lowering rates only in Q3, owing to inflationary pressure and household-debt risks.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Premier Li is likely to announce targeted support for auto and home appliance consumption at the NPC...
- ...But this should be incremental demand support, rather than a big stimulus.
- China’s recovery will probably remain lacklustre but gradually gain traction in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s national prices rise at the slowest rate since Q1 2021, thanks to softer food and energy prices.
- The surge in overseas package-holiday inflation has distorted the outturn away from the consensus.
- BoJ will be more confident to normalise rates but, given Fed’s delayed move, policy will tighten by June.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The two Japanese flash PMIs point to a flagging recovery, despite long-term optimism.
- A drop in service sector new export orders is a warning sign for the tourism sector.
- January national CPI, due Monday, will likely be sub- 2%, adding to the case for the BoJ to delay a rate rise.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korean 20-day export annual growth fell sharply in February, due to the holiday effect...
- ...Working-day-adjusted data show exports actually increased, led by semiconductor shipments.
- Japan’s exports rose in January due to base effects, tallying with the chip ‘up-cycle’ in Korean trade.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The PBoC announced no change to the one-year LPR yesterday, in line with market expectations...
- ...But the surprisingly large 25bp cut to the five-year LPR is a clear signal of property-market support.
- China is finally taking bigger steps to boost the ailing property market, but more will likely be needed.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- - CHINA’S CREDIT DATA OFFER GLIMMERS OF HOPE
- - TOKYO CORE INFLATION DIPS BELOW BOJ’S TARGET
- - NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES HELP LIFT KOREAN EXPORTS
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s economy enters technical recession as it saw two successive quarters of negative growth.
- Despite lacklustre domestic demand, growth was supported by nascent recovery in external demand.
- BoJ is likely to remove negative rates in Q2 after the ShuntÅÂ wage rounds despite weak fundamentals.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
