CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 June 2025: China's activity slowing, except retail sales

China's investment and industrial output data point to slowing growth, despite the bright retail sales reading

Duncan WrigleyChina+

17June 2025 China+ Monitor China's activity data reveal pockets of slack, despite policy support

• China’s solid retail sales figure for May was boosted by earlier online retail sales and subsidy policies.
• Manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth are slowing; expect the policy banks to step up soon.
• Policymakers are likely to opt for a mid-year top-up and refinement of targeted support; no big stimulus.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

13 June 2025 China+ Monitor China's productivity opportunity can cushion demographic pressure

• China faces a long-term demographic headwind, as its workforce declines and population ages...
• ...but also an opportunity to shift 20% of the workforce into jobs with productivity three times higher.
• Growth potential will still be substantial after the structural adjustment; plus AI is a wild card.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

12 June 2025 China+ Monitor China-US deal upheld after London talks, but still a long way to go

• Handshakes in London iron out implementation of the US-China deal struck in Geneva, subject to approval.
• The 90-day tariff reprieve revived China’s exports in May, temporarily, with trade diversion to the EU…
• …Uncertainty-induced front-loading demand puts a floor under monthly growth ahead of reprieve expiry.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Flash Services PMI, Japan, May

In one line: Japan's services sector expands at a slower pace in May

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Japan, May

In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rose as US importers rushed orders ahead of Tariff reprieve expiry.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, May

In one line: China's monthly exports rebounded in May, thanks to tariff reprieve.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, May

In one line: China’s FX reserves rise modestly as bond revaluation offsets inflows

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Services PMI, China, May

In one line : China's services activity ticks up, but deflationary pressure still lurking in the background.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Wages, Japan, April

In one line : Japanese inflation continues to outpace labour earnings; BoJ likely to hold rates in June.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

10 June 2025 China+ Monitor China's inflation data still soft but with little tariff-war effect so far

• China’s intensifying producer deflation in May reflects soft energy prices, rather than any direct tariff impact.
• Lacklustre core consumer inflation is indicative of still- sluggish domestic demand.
• Policymakers are likely to stick with targeted support, as they gradually implement demand-side reforms.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, May

Producer deflation slammed by weakening international energy prices, weather-hit construction activity

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9 June 2025: China's CPI still in mild deflation

China's CPI still in mild deflation, while producer deflation worsens due to weak global oil prices

Duncan WrigleyChina+

6 June 2025 China+ Monitor BoJ likely to stick to its bond-buying plan for now

• The BoJ will probably leave its bond-buying plan unchanged, after signs the market is functioning better.
• Thursday’s 30-year bond auction went well, after reports the MOF is likely to slow ultra-long bond issuance.
• The ruling coalition is likely to lose seats in the July Upper House election though, sparking debt worries.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Official Non-Manufacturing PMI, China, May

In one line: Golden Week boosts May's services activity in China, but overall non-manufacturing weighed down by weak resi-construction

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, May

In one line: China's manufacturing activity shrinks at a slower pace in May due to US tariff reprieve

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, May

In one line: BoK cuts to 2.50% on weaker growth outlook amid tariff war impact

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Bank of Korea Decision, Korea, May

In one line: BoK cuts to 2.50% on weaker growth outlook amid tariff war impact

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Industrial Profits, China, April

In one line: China’s April profit growth masks uneven recovery beneath; Trade uncertainty clouds outlook 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, May

In one line: Korea's exports set back less severe than expected, as tariff reprieve offers breathing space

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+