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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Daily Monitor Global

10 January 2024 China+ Monitor Cooling Tokyo Inflation Gives the BoJ Breathing Space

  • Tokyo consumer headline inflation continued to fall in December, as food inflation cooled.
  • Core inflation is slowing, as high import costs pass through the system gradually.
  • The BoJ will probably still exit its negative rate policy in Q2, despite slowing inflation and mediocre growth.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

9 January 2024 China+ Monitor China's Foreign Reserves Continue to Rise, as Yield Pressure Eases

  • China’s foreign reserves posted a second straight strong rise in December, as U.S. yields fell.
  • Both valuation effects and improved capital inflows drove the marked increase in reserves.
  • China’s pro-growth policy tilt is seen in the firing of an official, after new gaming rules hit stock prices. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

5 January 2024 China+ Monitor China's Service Sector Continues to Lead a Soft Recovery

  • The Caixin PMI indicated rising service activity in December, in contrast to the depressed official PMI...
  • ...But the Caixin PMI has been a better leading indicator of services production recently.
  • Consumer services demand is likely to continue to outperform soft consumer goods demand in 2024.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

3 January 2024 China+ Monitor Chinese Manufacturing Activity Continues to Flounder

  • December’s NBS manufacturing PMI fell for a third straight month, to the weakest level since June.
  • The divergence between the official and the Caixin measures continues, especially on export orders.
  • The government will rely more on fiscal policy in 2024. The PSL deployment is a quasi-fiscal example.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

22 December 2023 China+ Monitor Lumpy Exports of Vessels and Chips Drive Korean Shipments Higher

  • Korea’s 20-day exports rose sharply in December on base effects, and jumps in vessel and chip exports.
  • Exports to China and Hong Kong continue to recover, while shipments to the EU tanked.
  • Any improvement in Korea’s exports hinges on how sustained the ICT rebound and China’s recovery are. 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

21 December 2023 China+ Monitor China Keeps Lending Rates Steady, As Fiscal Policy Is in the Driver's Seat

  • The PBoC kept one-and five-year LPRs steady in December, after standing pat on MLF rates earlier.
  • Japan’s exports dipped back into negative growth in November following two months of expansion.
  • Exports to the US and EU slowed significantly, while car exports continue to grow, albeit less strongly.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

20 December 2023 China+ Monitor BoJ Not Shifting Its Policy Stance As Inflation Slows

  • The BoJ announced no change to its easy policy settings yesterday.
  • Falling U.S. yields have eased pressure on the yen, lessening the urgency of a BoJ policy shift.
  • The December flash PMIs indicate falling manufacturing demand, but resilient services activity.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

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independent macro research, China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,