China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Weekly Monitor Global Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)
- The Bank of Korea cited excessive KRW volatility as its reason for holding last week, while growth is improving.
- Rising upside risks to growth and inflation, plus FX volatility, are driving a return to a neutral policy stance.
- We still expect a final rate cut in H2, due to uncertainty over global trade policy and the AI cycle.
- China’s PPI improved on the back of a better supply-demand balance and rising non-ferrous metal prices.
- December’s CPI pick-up was due to transient factors such as food, offset by falling energy prices.
- Sustained reflation momentum will be difficult to maintain as economic fundamentals remain weak.
- China’s inflation outturn was a mixed bag, with CPIrising but PPI reflation seeming to lose momentum.
- A closer look reveals the CPI jump was due to transient factors, while PPI was dragged down by base effects.
- Weak domestic demand persisted in November, with all eyes on the CEWC for hints on future policy direction.
- China’s industrial-profit recovery stalled in October after emerging from the trough in the summer.
- The deterioration was broad-based, but the slowdown was led primarily by weakness in manufacturing.
- Two of the three industrial-profit drivers worsened, and feeble demand failed to create more revenue.
- Japan’s PM Takaichi revealed a mega-stimulus plan to ease the impact of inflation and boost growth.
- Inflation data support a December hike, but domestic politics and geopolitics complicate the timing…
- …Still, extreme JPY weakness may ultimately force the BoJ to hike, if its intervention impact proves short-lived.
- China’s activity data deteriorated further in October, underscoring still-lacklustre domestic demand…
- …The weakness in FAI remains the focal point; it is on course to have its worst-performing year since 1994.
- Excess property inventory will take some time to digest; the market will now focus on December’s CEWC.
