China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Chartbook Daily Monitor Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)
- The Xi–Trump meeting in Korea marked a watershed shift in negotiating power between the US and China.
- The RatingDog manufacturing PMI eased, similar to the NBS, on weak demand both at home and abroad.
- China is betting on powering growth by both expanding consumption and maintaining its export prowess.
- - CHINA DOUBLING DOWN ON MANUFACTURING-LED MODEL
- - JAPAN’S NEW PRIME MINISTER LIKELY TO MODERATE POLICY
- - BOK SHOULD LEAN TOWARDS EASING IN NOVEMBER
- President Trump met PM Takaichi in Tokyo, marking the start of a new 'golden age' for US-Japan relations.
- The BoJ held rates in October, citing the ongoing trade uncertainty and need to monitor wage trends.
- A next hike in Q1 seems more probable now, as rhetoric teeing up a December move was lacking.
- China and the US held talks to settle a trade agreement framework before Presidents Xi and Trump meet.
- China’s industrial profits recovery broadened in September, partly due to base effects…
- …Equipment manufacturing drove profit gains; we remain cautiously optimistic on anti-involution policies.
- Japan’s new PM Takaichi will put together a stimulus package to alleviate households’ cost-of-living crisis.
- September exports trended higher on improving intra-regional demand, driven by chip and car shipments.
- The BoJ will likely delay its rate hike to December now that Ms. Takaichi has been appointed as the new PM.
- China’s quarterly GDP grew a touch faster in Q3, but the headline masks weakness in domestic demand.
- The divergence holds between stronger exports and production, and weaker retail sales and investment.
- China’s Q4 growth hinges on successfully reining in deflation and unclogging local financing bottlenecks.
- Ms. Takaichi’s win in Japan’s LDP leadership election reduces the likelihood of a BoJ hike in October.
- China’s FX reserves rose in September, fuelled by non-valuation effects, such as capital inflows.
- We think USD strength and the Fed’s rate path will be the key drivers of China’s FX reserves into early 2026.
- Korea’s working-day-adjusted export value growth fell sharply in September, partly due to base effects.
- Manufacturing activity grew the most in 13 months, but the US ‘chip content’ tariff renews uncertainty.
- We expect the BoK to cut rates by 25bp in Q4, once financial stability risk from the housing market lessens.
- - CHINA LIKELY TO LAUNCH INVESTMENT STIMULUS SOON
- - BOJ SHOULD STILL HIKE, DESPITE POLITICAL RUCTIONS
- - KOREA’S EXPORTS TUMBLE IN SEPTEMBER
- Presidents Xi and Trump’s phone call last Friday to talk about trade paved the way for a summit in October.
- Korean 20-day WDA exports fell sharply in September, thanks to weaker demand across most destinations.
- Most Korean goods are still subject to higher tariffs than pre-Trump. We expect the BoK to cut in Q4.
- Hong Kong Policy Address proposes to strengthen technology ties with the mainland and boost growth.
- Japan’s annual export growth fell for the fourth straight month, but monthly momentum improves.
- BoJ will keep rates on hold this week, but we expect it to resume its rate hike cycle in late October.
- China exports slowed for third successive month in August, dragged down by low-tech shipments.
- US was largest drag on growth; monthly exports fell 12.8% seasonally adjusted, offsetting ASEAN's gains.
- Export growth is set to slow in H2 on the back of a weaker US economy and less stockpiling.
- - CHINA’S WEAK DEMAND CONTRASTS WITH BUOYANT STOCKS
- - BOJ WAITING FOR DUST TO SETTLE BEFORE HIKING RATES
- - ROCKY EXPORT OUTLOOK KEY TO KOREAN GROWTH
- Higher tariffs hurt Japan’s car and steel exporters in July, with export values seeing precipitous declines.
- Car export prices to the US are still falling in USD terms, but more slowly. Exporters are absorbing costs.
- Japan’s flash composite PMI has slid for three straight months but points to stronger domestic demand in July.
- China’s consumer prices are teetering on the brink of deflation, with July’s rate falling back to 0.0%.
- Producer deflation has deepened further. Any progress on anti-involution will take time to appear.
- Trade uncertainty will weigh on factory-gate prices regardless; all eyes are on the 15th five-year plan.
- China’s FX reserves fell less than the market expected, but still staged the first drop since December.
- The currency-valuation effect was the main downward driver, and the bond-valuation effect to a lesser extent.
- The evolution of China’s FX reserves in H2 hinges critically on the outlook for USD and the Fed.
- - CHINA’S PRICE WARS WILL PROMPT POLICY RESPONSE
- - BOJ STRIKES CAUTIOUS TONE ON GROWTH OUTLOOK
- - BOK LIKELY TO EASE, DESPITE CURRENCY WORRY
- Involution (内å·), or excessive competition, has been a buzzword in China in recent years.
- Industrial profits are being squeezed by oversupply, weak demand and excessive competition.
- Policymakers started an anti-involution campaign in earnest in July, hoping to restore industrial orders.
- Japan’s Upper House election is done and dusted; the coalition has now lost its majority in both houses.
- July’s 20-day exports held up on a WDA basis, despite the higher tariffs applied to Korean exports to the US.
- A preliminary US-Korea trade deal may be reached before August 1, but anything agreed will be general.
- Japanese export growth was surprisingly weak, because of a drop in shipments to Taiwan and Canada.
- Japan’s economy has probably entered a technical recession in Q2, likely dragged down by net trade.
- The LDP coalition is at risk of losing its Upper House majority; this will be bond-and yen-negative.
