China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Chartbook Daily Monitor Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)
- China exports slowed for third successive month in August, dragged down by low-tech shipments.
- US was largest drag on growth; monthly exports fell 12.8% seasonally adjusted, offsetting ASEAN's gains.
- Export growth is set to slow in H2 on the back of a weaker US economy and less stockpiling.
- - CHINA’S WEAK DEMAND CONTRASTS WITH BUOYANT STOCKS
- - BOJ WAITING FOR DUST TO SETTLE BEFORE HIKING RATES
- - ROCKY EXPORT OUTLOOK KEY TO KOREAN GROWTH
- Higher tariffs hurt Japan’s car and steel exporters in July, with export values seeing precipitous declines.
- Car export prices to the US are still falling in USD terms, but more slowly. Exporters are absorbing costs.
- Japan’s flash composite PMI has slid for three straight months but points to stronger domestic demand in July.
- China’s consumer prices are teetering on the brink of deflation, with July’s rate falling back to 0.0%.
- Producer deflation has deepened further. Any progress on anti-involution will take time to appear.
- Trade uncertainty will weigh on factory-gate prices regardless; all eyes are on the 15th five-year plan.
- China’s FX reserves fell less than the market expected, but still staged the first drop since December.
- The currency-valuation effect was the main downward driver, and the bond-valuation effect to a lesser extent.
- The evolution of China’s FX reserves in H2 hinges critically on the outlook for USD and the Fed.
- - CHINA’S PRICE WARS WILL PROMPT POLICY RESPONSE
- - BOJ STRIKES CAUTIOUS TONE ON GROWTH OUTLOOK
- - BOK LIKELY TO EASE, DESPITE CURRENCY WORRY
- Involution (内å·), or excessive competition, has been a buzzword in China in recent years.
- Industrial profits are being squeezed by oversupply, weak demand and excessive competition.
- Policymakers started an anti-involution campaign in earnest in July, hoping to restore industrial orders.
- Japan’s Upper House election is done and dusted; the coalition has now lost its majority in both houses.
- July’s 20-day exports held up on a WDA basis, despite the higher tariffs applied to Korean exports to the US.
- A preliminary US-Korea trade deal may be reached before August 1, but anything agreed will be general.
- Japanese export growth was surprisingly weak, because of a drop in shipments to Taiwan and Canada.
- Japan’s economy has probably entered a technical recession in Q2, likely dragged down by net trade.
- The LDP coalition is at risk of losing its Upper House majority; this will be bond-and yen-negative.
- The BoK kept the policy rate unchanged in July, citing concerns over trade policy and Seoul’s housing market.
- The MPB was torn, focusing its decision on trade- induced growth worries versus financial stability risk.
- We expect the Bank to resume rate-cutting once apartment prices show signs of easing in Seoul.
- The HKMA intervened again on Wednesday to defend the currency peg, which has been in place since 1983.
- The LERS is a double-edged sword: Hong Kong loses monetary policy freedom but gains stability.
- Any talk of re-pegging the HKD is premature; China and HKSAR are not yet an Optimal Currency Area.
- Korea’s 20-day export growth rebounded, likely supported by stockpiling as the US’s deadline nears.
- Shipments to the US, EU and Taiwan were the main drivers, while chip exports were strong in June.
- The trade-talk logjam continues; we expect the grace period to be extended, allowing more negotiating time.
- - CHINA’S FLAGGING GROWTH TO PROMPT POLICY TWEAKS
- - BOJ OPTS FOR PRAGMATIC MIDDLE PATH ON BOND-BUYING
- - BOK LIKELY TO EASE, DESPITE CURRENCY WORRY
- The BoJ left policy rates unchanged in June, while scaling back its tapering of bond-buying next year…
- …Likely due to bond-market volatility, the stalemate in trade negotiations and tensions in the Middle East.
- We expect the Bank to continue pausing its rate-hiking cycle in the near term as Japan’s economy weakens.
- Handshakes in London iron out implementation of the US-China deal struck in Geneva, subject to approval.
- The 90-day tariff reprieve revived China’s exports in May, temporarily, with trade diversion to the EU…
- …Uncertainty-induced front-loading demand puts a floor under monthly growth ahead of reprieve expiry.
- Both candidates in the presidential election have committed to a KRW30T fiscal plan to boost the economy.
- May’s export growth was not as weak as it appeared; WDA monthly and annual growth were positive.
- Still, tariff and trade-policy uncertainty will continue to weigh on Korea’s GDP growth in 2025.
- The Bank of Korea cut rates to 2.50% in May; board members’ decision was unanimous.
- Weaker growth and lingering uncertainty over trade were likely the factors driving this month’s cut.
- The stronger KRW gave the BoK a window to ease, and a July Fed cut would allow another 25bp cut this year.
- Japan’s composite PMI dipped below 50 in May, led by rapidly slowing services and a drop in manufacturing.
- That said, US importers rushed to order goods ahead of the tariff reprieve expiring, offsetting falls in output.
- The BoJ will hold rates as it assesses the outcome of negotiations and their impact on the economy.
- CHINA MORE RESPONSIVE TO FALTERING GROWTH THIS YEAR
- JAPAN’S STUMBLING GROWTH A REASON FOR BOJ CAUTION
- BOK SET TO RESUME RATE CUTS IN MAY
- Korea saw improvements in early trade data for May, with exports falling at a slower pace.
- Japan’s export growth in April was hit by US tariffs on foreign cars and steel products.
- The BoK will resume easing to offset tariff impacts; the BoJ will pause rate hikes and assess negotiations.
