Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Chartbook Daily Monitor Duncan Wrigley

16 January 2024 China+ Monitor No rate cut for China, as fiscal stimulus anchors credit demand

  • The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged yesterday, as policymakers assess the impact of recent easing.
  • Headline consumer inflation improved slightly in December, but core inflation remains sluggish.
  • Excess capacity is likely to weigh on manufactured goods prices in 2024.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

12 January 2024 China+ Monitor BoK Tweaks its Messaging, while Keeping Rates on Hold

  • The BoK left the policy rate unchanged yesterday, while hinting at future easing in its statement...
  • ...But Governor Rhee played down the likelihood of near-term rate cuts, worried about household debt.
  • The BoK is likely to start easing in Q3; but a sharp KRW appreciation could bring forward that shift.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

10 January 2024 China+ Monitor Cooling Tokyo Inflation Gives the BoJ Breathing Space

  • Tokyo consumer headline inflation continued to fall in December, as food inflation cooled.
  • Core inflation is slowing, as high import costs pass through the system gradually.
  • The BoJ will probably still exit its negative rate policy in Q2, despite slowing inflation and mediocre growth.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

9 January 2024 China+ Monitor China's Foreign Reserves Continue to Rise, as Yield Pressure Eases

  • China’s foreign reserves posted a second straight strong rise in December, as U.S. yields fell.
  • Both valuation effects and improved capital inflows drove the marked increase in reserves.
  • China’s pro-growth policy tilt is seen in the firing of an official, after new gaming rules hit stock prices. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

5 January 2024 China+ Monitor China's Service Sector Continues to Lead a Soft Recovery

  • The Caixin PMI indicated rising service activity in December, in contrast to the depressed official PMI...
  • ...But the Caixin PMI has been a better leading indicator of services production recently.
  • Consumer services demand is likely to continue to outperform soft consumer goods demand in 2024.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

December 2023 - China+ Chartbook

  • - CHINA PRIORITISES RESTRUCTURING OVER GROWTH
  • - FALLING INFLATION SHOULD DELAY BOJ TIGHTENING
  • - BOK WORRIED ABOUT HIGH HOUSEHOLD DEBT

Duncan WrigleyChina+

20 December 2023 China+ Monitor BoJ Not Shifting Its Policy Stance As Inflation Slows

  • The BoJ announced no change to its easy policy settings yesterday.
  • Falling U.S. yields have eased pressure on the yen, lessening the urgency of a BoJ policy shift.
  • The December flash PMIs indicate falling manufacturing demand, but resilient services activity.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

independent macro research, China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,