China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Datanotes Duncan Wrigley
RatingDog PMI stung by waning domestic demand, despite buoyant overseas orders
Korean manufacturing index treading water
Tokyo inflation slows slightly, with hints of steady wage inflation going into 2026
- China’s new promotion scheme to raise consumption issued yesterday is old wine in new wineskins.
- The scheme focuses on boosting supply, without addressing the root causes of dull consumer demand.
- Bright spots amid the gloom include rising spending on consumer services, like sports and tourism.
In one line: exports hold up ahead of row with China
- China’s residential property market is weakening again, in the absence of robust new policy support.
- Broad inventory needs another 18 months to bottom out, but even that depends on sentiment stabilising.
- A modest rise in land sales this year, albeit from a very low base, is a flickering ray of light.
- Japan’s Q3 GDP shrank, hit by weaker net exports, a slower inventory rise and falling residential investment.
- The government aims to secure a larger supplementary budget than in 2024, leading to bond-market worries.
- The diplomatic spat with China over Taiwan could put a 0.3pp dent in GDP growth if Chinese tourism stops.
Weak net exports of goods and tourism hit growth
Private consumption was sluggish
Business non-residential investment was resilient
Full-time regular pay growth slowed a tad
Real wages extended their decline in September
Efficiency gains help profits but hurt labour demand
- China’s household saving rate has fallen, implying greater readiness for consumption spending...
- ...But not by enough to make up for the slump in residential sales since 2019; no wonder demand is soft.
- The October RatingDog services PMI reports efficiency gains; good for profits, but bad for jobs short term.
Investment stimulus should lift China's manufacturing index from October's trough
Tokyo inflation bump driven by local water subsidy expiry
- President Xi’s commentary on Tuesday confirms an industry-first view of growth...
- ...with the domestic economy serving mainly as a hedge against external uncertainties.
- China will stick to manufacturing-led growth, with only modest support for domestic demand and property.
In one line: BoJ won’t be shocked by modest rise in inflation; likely to hold rates next week waiting for clarity on the new government’s fiscal easing
- The BoK held the policy rate yesterday, while signalling its readiness for a rate cut next month...
- ...But only if the KRW stabilises, in turn resting on US-Korea talks, and if the Seoul property market cools.
- China’s Fourth Plenum signalled continued reliance on the manufacturing-export growth model.
- China’s loan growth slowed in September, indicative of weak credit demand, notably among corporates.
- M1 growth surged, but this likely reflects the robust stock market, rather than domestic demand reviving.
- The PBoC is likely to save policy rate cuts to stabilise sentiment if US-China trade frictions worsen severely.
In one line: Japan's wage growth slows again, with bonuses hit by tourism weakness
- Japan’s real household spending continued to rise in August, despite falling real incomes.
- Nominal wages took a hit, as bonuses plunged, notably in tourism-related sectors and manufacturing.
- The BoJ will be looking for clues about 2026 wage growth, but is also wary of recent JPY weakness.
In one line: Manufacturing sector improved ahead of investment stimulus
- China’s investment stimulus measures, announced on Monday, should spur an investment rebound in Q4.
- Both September manufacturing PMIs point to a modest but broad improvement in activity.
- Services activity slowed as tourism entered the off-peak season; the construction sector remains weak.
