China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Datanotes Duncan Wrigley
China's investment and industrial output data point to slowing growth, despite the bright retail sales reading
- China’s solid retail sales figure for May was boosted by earlier online retail sales and subsidy policies.
- Manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth are slowing; expect the policy banks to step up soon.
- Policymakers are likely to opt for a mid-year top-up and refinement of targeted support; no big stimulus.
- China faces a long-term demographic headwind, as its workforce declines and population ages...
- ...but also an opportunity to shift 20% of the workforce into jobs with productivity three times higher.
- Growth potential will still be substantial after the structural adjustment; plus AI is a wild card.
- China’s intensifying producer deflation in May reflects soft energy prices, rather than any direct tariff impact.
- Lacklustre core consumer inflation is indicative of still- sluggish domestic demand.
- Policymakers are likely to stick with targeted support, as they gradually implement demand-side reforms.
Producer deflation slammed by weakening international energy prices, weather-hit construction activity
China's CPI still in mild deflation, while producer deflation worsens due to weak global oil prices
- The BoJ will probably leave its bond-buying plan unchanged, after signs the market is functioning better.
- Thursday’s 30-year bond auction went well, after reports the MOF is likely to slow ultra-long bond issuance.
- The ruling coalition is likely to lose seats in the July Upper House election though, sparking debt worries.
- China’s May manufacturing PMI readings diverged, as activity gradually revived post-May 12’s tariff truce.
- Small exporters are likely being hit harder by the trade-policy oscillations, and the détente is already fraying.
- Sentiment has held up surprisingly well, and improved slightly in both manufacturing gauges.
Korean PMI shows domestic demand tanking, but sentiment is improving thanks to tariff war pause
